According to a research report from GF Securities, the development of AI data centers (AIDC) in the United States is driving up power demand, which in turn is fueling a sharp increase in demand for gas turbines. The order-to-delivery ratio for major gas turbine manufacturers continues to rise; according to Energy New Media, newly ordered H-class gas turbines typically face delivery timelines stretching to 2028–2030, indicating a significant lengthening of wait times. Aeroderivative gas turbines have a short commercial operation cycle, far shorter than the 6 to 24-month installation period required for large-scale gas turbines. Currently, the aeroderivative gas turbine market is characterized by a supply-demand mismatch of strong orders but slow deliveries, which is strengthening the motivation for major manufacturers to seek new suppliers or expand the product categories of existing ones. As a type of light-duty gas turbine, aeroderivative units may have relatively lower entry barriers compared to heavy-duty gas turbines, providing more opportunities for new entrants. The main views of GF Securities are as follows:
The construction of AI infrastructure and upgrades to the power grid in the US are pushing electricity prices higher, with Trump demanding that tech giants bear the full cost of data center construction. AI Data Centers: The growth of AIDCs in the US is boosting power demand for data centers; according to Semi Analysis data, global data center power consumption is projected to increase from 49GW in 2023 to 96GW in 2026, with 90% of this growth driven by AI. Aging Grid Updates: Overseas power equipment generally has a long service life; IEA data indicates that over 50% of grid infrastructure in developed economies is more than 20 years old, particularly in regions like Japan, the US, and Europe, prompting an equipment renewal cycle due to widespread component aging. Supply Shortfall for Major Turbine Manufacturers: Power shortages are driving a sharp rise in demand for gas turbines, and the order-to-delivery ratio for major manufacturers continues to climb; Energy New Media reports that newly ordered H-class gas turbines now typically have delivery dates set for 2028–2030, representing a substantial lengthening of wait times. Trump has demanded that major technology companies bear the full cost of data center construction. On January 13, according to China Fund News, Trump stated on social media: "The monthly utility bills for average American families have risen sharply—by over 30%!... My administration is working with major US tech companies to secure their commitment to the American people... Microsoft will begin major adjustments this week to ensure Americans do not 'pay the bill' for their electricity consumption through higher utility bills. Data centers are key to this prosperity, but the large tech companies building them must pay their own way."
Aeroderivative gas turbines feature short commercial operation cycles, making them an ideal transitional solution for data centers, with orders being closely landed for this purpose. Recent overseas events provide evidence: GEV signed an order with Crusoe for 29 LM2500XPRESS aeroderivative gas turbine kits, which are expected to provide nearly 1GW of power combined; ProEnergy has delivered 21 gas turbines to two data center projects, with a total installed capacity exceeding 1GW; engine maintenance provider FTAI Aviation announced the launch of FT AIPower, focusing on CFM56 aeroderivative conversions. The strong demand for aeroderivatives is already reflected in the financials of major manufacturers, showing a supply shortage. In Q1-Q3 2025, GEV received new orders for 46 aeroderivative gas turbines, an increase of 11 units year-over-year; however, only 16 units were delivered in the same period, a decrease of 3 units year-over-year, indicating that deliveries are lagging far behind new orders.
Investment Recommendation: Focus on opportunities for market share growth among supporting enterprises amid the aeroderivative gas turbine boom. The aeroderivative gas turbine sector is currently experiencing a supply-demand mismatch with robust orders but slow deliveries, which enhances the impetus for major manufacturers to find new suppliers or expand the offerings of existing ones. As light-duty gas turbines, aeroderivatives likely have relatively lower entry barriers than heavy-duty models, creating more opportunities for new players. In summary, some domestic companies possess the necessary supporting capabilities, technology, and production capacity and are poised to secure more long-term supporting agreements amid the favorable conditions in the aeroderivative sector. In terms of specific stocks, it is advisable to monitor companies such as Hangya Technology (688510.SH), Zhenhua股份 (603067.SH), Yingliu股份 (603308.SH), AECC Aviation Power Co Ltd (600391.SH), Longda股份 (688231.SH), AECC Aviation Power Co Ltd (688239.SH), Paike New Materials (605123.SH), AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (688563.SH), AVIC Heavy Machinery Co Ltd (600765.SH), Wanze股份 (000534.SZ), Shangda股份 (301522.SZ), Haomai Technology (002595.SZ), Impro Precision (01286), Baoti股份 (600456.SH), and Jiangsu Yonghan, among others.
Risk warnings include uncertainties in downstream AIDC capital expenditures, the progress of new technology upgrades and substitutions, global demand for aircraft and aero engines, the demand for and delivery of key equipment deployments, industry policies, raw material and product prices, and the trade environment.
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