Main Chinese stock indices showed divergent movements today. The Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.07% to close at 3867.03 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.42%, the ChiNext Index dropped 3.23%, and the STAR 50 Index declined 2.25%. The total trading volume for A-shares was 2.67 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease from the previous session. Over 3,800 stocks declined across the market, with positive returns concentrated in a few sectors. On the board, oil & petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and coal led the gains, while upstream AI sectors like communications and media weakened.
The afternoon sell-off was primarily focused on the ChiNext/STAR board and technology growth sectors, driven by three main factors. First, there was profit-taking at elevated levels. AI-related sectors like communications had seen significant gains and high crowding recently, prompting some capital to lock in profits following yesterday's strong rally. Second, uncertainty surrounds the earnings season, as major North American cloud providers are set to report results, leading to temporary market concerns over their AI capital expenditure guidance. Third, a style rebalancing of funds is occurring, with capital flowing out of technology into lower-priced, less-crowded resource and high-dividend sectors like precious metals, coal, and power, creating a seesaw effect. The fact that the Shanghai Composite turned positive while the overall market volume shrank by approximately 300 billion yuan suggests this is more of a sector rotation than a broad-based market weakening.
Looking ahead, we are inclined to believe that the room for further downside in this round and the associated systemic risk are relatively limited. A medium-term recovery may already be gradually starting. However, it's important to recognize clearly that the current pressure stems mainly from deleveraging within the technology sector itself. Whether a direct "V-shaped rebound" will follow likely requires further observation; a more probable scenario involves a process of repeated fluctuations and bottom-building. Key signals to monitor going forward include a moderation in market deleveraging pressure, a gradual clearing of selling pressure on core technology assets, and new positive catalysts from industry developments.
Before these signals become clear, a balanced approach between offense and defense in operations is advisable, capturing the timing differences between resource/dividend plays and technology. Maintain attention on resource and high-dividend sectors that are at lower levels and have fundamental support, while respecting the volatility in high-flying technology names and avoiding chasing rallies or panic selling.
Gold and Resource ETFs in Focus
The Gold Stock ETF (517400) surged 6.31% today, while the Mining ETF (561330) jumped 3.82%. During the Asian session, the spot gold price touched $4,140 per ounce again. Following repeated confirmations of a base around the $4,000/oz level, gold prices established a near-term bottom at $4,000 amid a confluence of negative factors including earlier liquidity shocks, a temporary weakening of the de-dollarization narrative, capital siphoning by the tech sector, and heightened rate hike expectations. Gold stocks led the gold price this week, anticipating its stabilization.
From an industrial logic perspective, gold's long-term pricing anchors lie in declining real interest rates, sustained central bank purchases globally, and a rebalancing of the credit system. Amid intertwined factors of the rate cut path and geopolitical uncertainty, the strategic allocation value of precious metals likely remains supported. Industrial metals, meanwhile, benefit from tight supply constraints and new demand drivers like computing power and electricity, with leading mining companies expected to continue delivering on "volume and price increases" in their profits.
The logic for industrial metals is also sound. The copper price recently surged to near $14,000 per ton, with this rally driven more by fundamental support and clear signals of tight physical supply. This is coupled with a cluster of positive earnings pre-announcements from mining companies for the first half, confirming strong industry conditions through volume and price increases. Non-ferrous metals, with their clear logic, relatively low valuations, and clean ownership structures, have become the destination for capital flowing out of technology. Interested investors can continue to monitor the Gold Stock ETF (517400) (tracks gold industry stocks across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong, potentially offering higher earnings sensitivity), the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (159881) (one-click exposure to leaders in gold, copper, and other non-ferrous metals), and the Mining ETF (561330) (focuses on upstream mining companies) to capture the revaluation opportunity in resources, while remaining mindful of risks associated with high price volatility.
Coal, Power, and High-Dividend Sectors
Coal and power, representing high-dividend directions, performed well today. In the afternoon, the coal and power sectors saw active trading with several stocks hitting their daily limit-up, as low-priced, high-dividend-yield sectors attracted capital.
Fundamentally, the core catalyst for the power sector is the "peak summer demand" period. Following the end of the rainy season in southern China, high-temperature areas continue to expand nationwide, with electricity loads repeatedly hitting record highs. Rising residential power demand is driving up daily coal consumption at power plants. Additionally, outflow from the Three Gorges Dam has significantly decreased from high levels, reducing the substitution effect of hydropower. This has led to a recovery in power plant procurement demand, bringing a substantive improvement on the demand side, with port thermal coal prices continuing to rise. Meanwhile, supply contraction exceeding expectations has been validated. National raw coal output in June fell 9.7% year-on-year, the largest single-month decline in nearly a decade, as high-pressure safety inspections continue to have a tangible limiting effect on capacity. On July 17th, six departments in Shanxi jointly issued the "Detailed Rules for Rewarding Reports on Mine Safety Production," accelerating the elimination of non-compliant, hidden production capacity through a reward mechanism.
On the earnings front, the coal sector is expected to report solid first-half results. Leading companies' performance exceeded expectations, with several coal firms issuing positive earnings pre-announcements, showing significant quarter-on-quarter profit improvement in Q2. Furthermore, repeated US-Iran conflicts are pushing up the international energy price floor, reviving trading based on the energy substitution logic between oil and coal prices.
Current market style shifts are rapid. The赚钱效应 of the technology theme has somewhat weakened, prompting market capital to seek safe havens. Sectors like coal and power, offering defensive attributes, stable dividends, and景气支撑 from peak summer demand, may represent a balanced choice for both offense and defense in a volatile market. Interested investors can consider Coal ETF (515220) and Green Power ETF (159669) as defensive allocations within a choppy market. Additionally, for those preferring a basket of high-dividend, state-owned enterprise (SOE)红利 assets, related options like the SOE红利 ETF (510720) are also worth noting. Of course,红利 sectors are also subject to volatility, and price correction risks should be considered.
Communication ETF Performance and Outlook
The Communication ETF (515880) experienced a relatively significant pullback today, closing down 4.28%, following its strong rally yesterday. The main reasons are profit-taking by some capital after yesterday's surge and evident pressure on the communications sector during the broader market's afternoon decline. Additionally, upcoming earnings reports from North American cloud providers have introduced some market concern.
From a medium to long-term perspective, the AI industry remains resilient. We firmly believe AI represents a massive industrial revolution, potentially even exceeding the impact of PC普及. With global AI infrastructure accelerating, we estimate global AI Capex could approach $1.5 trillion by 2027. Specific sub-sectors like optical modules and PCBs are in a phase where the second derivative is positive, meaning growth rates are set to accelerate further next year, indicating只增不减的产业景气度.
Upcoming North American earnings reports, particularly from Meta and Google, deserve close attention. While some uncertainty exists, the communications sector, after recent消化, is at relatively low levels overall. We believe industry-related risks are relatively controllable, but marginal changes still warrant monitoring.
Short-term volatility still requires attention. Uncertainties may persist around North American earnings and the listing of a major A-share company. Furthermore, after the previous significant decline, the overall ownership structure is complex, and short-term fluctuations could remain intense. Investors need to guard against related risks.
Bond Market Update
Bond yields declined notably today, but the market largely continued its narrow-range震荡 pattern this week, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.72% and 1.73%. Neither fundamentals nor liquidity conditions have shown a significant shift. The market is caught between slightly improved PMI data and the central bank's liquidity support, making narrow-range fluctuations the mid-term主旋律. It's advisable to focus on稳健品种 with moderate duration, such as the Government Bond ETF (511010) and the 10-Year Government Bond ETF (511260). The portfolio holding strategy should be oriented towards medium-term allocation; short-term chasing of rallies or panic selling is not recommended. Consider gradually adding positions when yields rise.
On the fundamental side, June economic data was generally温和, with the inflation divergence pattern continuing. The official manufacturing PMI for June registered 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion territory. Regarding inflation, the June CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year, lower than the previous 1.2% and market expectations of 1.2%. Prices for food, tobacco, alcohol, and dining out fell 0.8% year-on-year, constituting the largest drag. Core CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year, also down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating low inflationary pressure. We believe that against the backdrop of traditional industries still dragging overall financing demand, a single month's PMI data has limited power to suppress interest rates. It's建议持续关注 the trend of subsequent PMI sub-indices. Overall, fundamentals have not disproven the core logic of a "sustainable low-interest-rate environment." Weak credit demand and subdued inflation expectations continue to support the case for lower long-term interest rates.
Regarding liquidity conditions, the central bank intensified its open market operations last week: for example, conducting 1,400 billion yuan in 6-month outright reverse repos while 900 billion yuan matured, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan. We believe the central bank's超额续作 amidst multiple pressures from tax payments and government bond settlements demonstrates a clear overall supportive stance. Large banks' funding provision has been somewhat审慎, leading to marginal tightening in liquidity but overall conditions remain neutral, not constituting a severe negative.
In summary, we maintain our core view of a neutral-to-slightly-bullish short-term胜率 environment and narrow-range fluctuations in the medium term. One can either stay put or opportunistically participate when yields rise. Current liquidity conditions remain balanced under the central bank's精细调控, and the 10-year government bond yield lacks momentum for a trend性突破. It is建议维持 a配置思维大于交易思维, continuing to focus on稳健品种 with moderate duration, such as the Government Bond ETF (511010) and the 10-Year Government Bond ETF (511260).
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