On January 20th, the current gold price is in a phase of high-level consolidation with increased volatility, but according to GTC Zehui Capital, this does not signify the end of the trend. Although the market may experience profit-taking or a months-long range-bound fluctuation in the short term, the core logic supporting the upward movement of gold prices remains robust. GTC Zehui Capital believes the probability of gold prices being pushed to $5,000 per ounce within the next six to nine months has significantly increased, with this possibility now approaching 40%, and investors should not be disturbed by short-term price shakeouts.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the unusual phenomenon of gold strengthening in sync with U.S. stocks actually reinforces gold's safe-haven attributes. GTC Zehui Capital stated that when the S&P 500 Index advances towards the 7,000-point mark while gold prices simultaneously hit record highs, this synergy indicates the market is pricing in a potential "regime shift." The current market focus has shifted from the traditional interest rate-driven narrative towards precaution against extreme tail risks. Due to fluctuating stock-bond correlations and heightened policy uncertainty, gold's role as a "ballast" in asset portfolios is becoming increasingly prominent.
Regarding structural factors, GTC Zehui Capital indicated that global government and corporate debt levels reached a historic high in 2025, with massive fiscal deficits providing solid structural support for gold prices. Although the Federal Reserve's monetary policy moves remain a market focus, GTC Zehui Capital believes the influence of interest rates on gold prices is receding into the background. While inflation has currently entered a plateau phase, it is difficult to fall back to the ideal 2% target in the short term; this "inflation stabilization" environment has historically tended to favor precious metals performance.
Furthermore, physical demand and investment cash flows are building a solid price floor for the market. GTC Zehui Capital stated that global central banks' gold purchasing behavior has shown a clear "price-insensitive" characteristic, and this structural anchoring will provide long-term support for gold prices above $4,000. Simultaneously, the contrarian inflows into gold ETFs at the end of 2025 signal significant room for growth in 2026. GTC Zehui Capital believes the current global allocation to gold has not yet reached saturation; within the $4,000 to $5,000 range, gold still possesses extremely high holding value. Every periodic price pullback presents an excellent opportunity for investors to re-enter and position themselves.
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