Access the Sina Finance APP and search for [Disclosure] to view more rating levels. **【Focus Areas】** The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a "policy mix" of monetary and financial measures, introducing eight key actions to bolster economic support, with room remaining for RRR and interest rate cuts this year. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have extended the policies exempting corporate income tax and value-added tax on bond interest income earned by overseas institutions investing in China's bond market. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges have adjusted the margin requirement for securities margin trading, raising the minimum ratio to 100%. The Ministry of Commerce will continue imposing anti-dumping duties on solar-grade polysilicon imported from the United States and South Korea. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) forecasts that new energy vehicle (NEV) sales are expected to reach 19 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. The Ministry of Commerce is providing general guidance on price undertakings for Chinese exporters of pure electric vehicles to the EU. Tianjin has tightened controls on new home prices, potentially restricting online signing for properties deemed "excessively low." The "Taihang Trio" projects have completed assessment and acceptance, poised to drive the development of China's gas turbine industry. The State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated an investigation into Trip.com Group Limited in accordance with the law. Former US President Trump imposed additional tariffs on eight European countries and reiterated demands to purchase Greenland. The EU and several European nations condemned Trump's tariff hikes and coercive "island seizure" tactics.
**【Domestic News】** On January 15, at a State Council Information Office press conference, PBOC Deputy Governor Zou Lan announced eight policy measures designed to enhance banks' enthusiasm for lending in key sectors, increase support via structural monetary policy tools, and further assist in the transformation and optimization of the economic structure. These measures include reducing interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, increasing the relending quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, raising the relending quota for technological innovation and technological upgrades to 1.2 trillion yuan, and, in conjunction with the National Financial Regulatory Administration, lowering the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages to 30%, among others. Discussing the potential for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts, Zou Lan indicated that there is still some room for such moves this year. Currently, the average statutory reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions stands at 6.3%, suggesting room for RRR reductions. Concurrently, the relative stability of the RMB exchange rate, signs of stabilizing bank net interest margins, and the recent cut in relending rates all contribute to lowering banks' interest payment costs and stabilizing net interest margins, thereby creating some space for potential interest rate cuts. On January 14, following approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges issued notices adjusting the margin requirement for securities margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors buying securities on margin from 80% to 100%. In August 2023, these exchanges had reduced the margin ratio from 100% to 80%, leading to steady increases in margin financing scale and trading volume. Recently, margin trading activity has become notably more active against a backdrop of relatively ample market liquidity. In accordance with statutory counter-cyclical adjustment arrangements, moderately increasing the margin ratio back to 100% is intended to appropriately reduce leverage levels, effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors, and promote the long-term stable and healthy development of the market. At the January 15 State Council Information Office press conference, PBOC Deputy Governor Zou Lan stated that the quotas for relending supporting agriculture and small businesses would be combined with rediscount quotas, with an additional 500 billion yuan allocated specifically to the relending quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses. A dedicated relending quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises will be established within the total quota, focusing on supporting small and medium-sized private enterprises. On January 17, the PBOC and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice stating that the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages on commercial properties (including "commercial-residential dual-use properties") has been adjusted to no less than 30%. The notice indicated this move aims to adapt to new changes in the supply and demand relationship within China's real estate market and support the establishment of a new model for real estate development. On January 15, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a public announcement stating that, to further promote the opening up of the bond market, from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, corporate income tax and value-added tax will be temporarily exempted on bond interest income earned by overseas institutions investing in China's bond market. Data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) on January 14 showed that in 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units, setting new historical records. New energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales both surpassed 16 million units, with NEVs accounting for over 50% of new car sales domestically. It is forecast that NEV sales will potentially reach 19 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, while automobile exports are expected to hit 7.4 million units, a 4.3% year-on-year increase. On January 12, former US President Donald Trump posted on social media that any country engaging in commercial dealings with Iran would face an additional 25% tariff on any commercial dealings with the United States. In response to related inquiries during a regular press briefing on January 13, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that China's position on tariff issues is very clear: there are no winners in a tariff war. China will resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. The Ministry of Commerce announced that, starting January 14, 2026, anti-dumping duties on imports of solar-grade polysilicon originating from the United States and South Korea will continue to be levied for an implementation period of five years. According to the Ministry of Commerce, to implement the consensus reached at the China-EU leaders' meeting and properly resolve the EU's electric vehicle case against China, both sides engaged in multiple rounds of consultations based on mutual respect. Both parties agreed on the necessity of providing general guidance on price undertakings to Chinese exporters of pure electric vehicles to the EU, enabling these exporters to address relevant concerns in a more practical, targeted, and WTO rule-compliant manner. To this end, the EU side will issue "Guidance Documents on Submitting Price Undertaking Applications," confirming within these documents that the EU will adhere to the principle of non-discrimination, apply the same legal standards to each price undertaking application according to relevant WTO rules, and conduct assessments in an objective and impartial manner. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly released the "Measures for Strengthening the Layout Planning and Investment Direction Guidance of Government Investment Funds." A responsible official from the NDRC stated that this marks the first systematic regulation at the national level governing the layout and investment direction of government investment funds. The "Measures" propose 14 policy initiatives focusing on three aspects of government investment funds: "where to invest, how to invest, and who manages them." Regarding optimizing fund layout, the measures require funds to support major strategies, key sectors, and areas where market allocation is ineffective, promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, focus on cultivating emerging pillar industries, and adhere to the principles of investing early, investing small, investing long-term, and investing in hard technology. According to the People's Bank of China, at the end of December 2025, the broad money supply (M2) balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. The narrow money supply (M1) balance was 115.51 trillion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year. The currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 10.2% year-on-year. The net cash injection for the full year was 1.31 trillion yuan. On January 15, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) convened its 2026 system work conference to study and deploy tasks for the year. Regarding consolidating the steady and positive market trend, the CSRC will comprehensively strengthen market monitoring and early warning, enhance supervision of trading and information disclosure, strictly investigate and punish illegal activities such as excessive speculation and even market manipulation, and resolutely prevent sharp market fluctuations. The reform of public offering funds will continue to deepen, introducing various products and risk management tools suitable for long-term investment, and全力营造 an market ecology conducive to "long-term money making long-term investments." A director from the Department of North American and Oceanian Affairs of the Ministry of Commerce, interpreting the outcomes of China-Canada economic and trade consultations, stated that Canada will grant China an annual quota of 49,000 electric vehicles. Within this quota, vehicles will enjoy the 6.1% most-favored-nation tariff rate and will no longer be subject to a 100% surtax. The quota quantity will increase annually according to a set proportion. It is hoped that industries in both countries will seize the opportunity, strengthen alignment, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. China will adjust the anti-dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed and the counter-discrimination measures on certain Canadian agricultural and aquatic products that Canada has raised concerns about, in accordance with relevant laws and regulations. It is believed these arrangements will positively contribute to deepening cooperation in relevant industries between China and Canada and enhancing the well-being of people in both nations. The CSRC has drafted the "Supervisory and Administrative Measures for Derivative Transactions (Trial) (Draft for Comments)" and is now soliciting public feedback. The draft mentions that the CSRC will adhere to the principle of prudent supervision, improve the monitoring system for the derivatives market, and may implement counter-cyclical adjustment management on derivative transactions. Derivative industry associations, derivative trading venues, and derivative clearing institutions should take measures to maintain reasonable leverage levels and market scale in the derivatives market. On January 17, the National Energy Administration announced that China's total electricity consumption by the whole society historically exceeded 100 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, reaching 104 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5%. This figure is a first for a single country globally, equivalent to more than twice the annual electricity consumption of the United States and exceeding the combined annual electricity consumption of the EU, Russia, India, and Japan. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently revised and issued the latest "Measures for the Graded Cultivation of High-Quality Small and Medium-sized Enterprises," which incorporates technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises into the graded cultivation scope for high-quality SMEs. These enterprises, together with innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, are regarded as the foundational force of high-quality SMEs, collectively referred to as technology-based and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises. The measures will take effect on April 1, 2026. According to Yicai, recent market information suggests that Tianjin will implement standardized management on the sales prices of newly built commercial housing. For projects newly granted pre-sale permits, price fluctuation幅度 should not exceed 10% of the filed price; for projects that have already obtained pre-sale permits, discounts exceeding 10 percentage points require written reporting, and discounts exceeding 15 percentage points may lead to the suspension of online signing. Reporters contacted housing and construction committees in several Tianjin districts. Relevant staff indicated that the general direction is indeed towards strengthened management, but specific implementation depends on individual projects, with the core objective being price stability; another staff member also stated that it is not a strict "one-size-fits-all" 10% standard, but management has been strengthened, and excessively low prices could indeed lead to restrictions on online signing. According to the Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC), the "Taihang 7" Gas Turbine Innovation Development Demonstration Project, the "Taihang 15" Gas Turbine Innovation Development Demonstration Project, and the "Taihang 110" Heavy-Duty Gas Turbine Innovation Development Demonstration Project have recently successfully completed assessment and acceptance by the National Energy Administration's Gas Turbine Innovation Development Demonstration Program. AECC experts stated that the completion of the assessment and acceptance signifies that AECC has achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as gas turbine R&D design, key material development, key component manufacturing, testing verification, and operation maintenance. This will vigorously drive the industrialization and commercial development of China's gas turbine sector. Recently, based on preliminary verification, the State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated an investigation into Trip.com Group Limited for suspected abuse of market dominance to implement monopolistic conduct, in accordance with the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China.
**【International News】** Several members of the European Parliament stated on January 17 that, given the US threat towards Greenland, the trade agreement reached between Europe and the US in July last year would not be able to gain approval. They simultaneously called for using anti-coercion instruments to respond to the US tariff hikes. On January 17, former US President Donald Trump announced on social media that, starting February 1, a 10% tariff would be imposed on goods imported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland. Trump stated that the tariff rate would increase to 25% starting June 1, until relevant parties reach an agreement on the US "comprehensively and thoroughly purchasing Greenland." On January 13, the World Bank released its latest "Global Economic Prospects" report, raising the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the prediction made in June 2025. The report pointed out that despite intensified trade tensions and policy uncertainty, the global economy demonstrated resilience over the past year, influenced by factors such as a significant increase in artificial intelligence investment. On January 12, the EU's senior official for defense, Kubilius, stated that if Denmark requests it, the EU could provide security support for Greenland and warned that if the US were to seize Greenland by military means, it would signify the "end" of NATO. The "Global Risks Report 2026," released by the World Economic Forum on January 14, indicated that geopolitical and economic risks continue to intensify in a new era of competition, with geo-economic confrontation listed as the top risk for 2026. Besides geo-economic confrontation, other major global risks for 2026 include armed conflict between states, extreme weather events, societal polarization, and misinformation and disinformation. Among current risk rankings, economic risks have risen the fastest. The report suggests that worsening debt issues and potential asset bubbles, combined with geo-economic conflicts, could trigger a new round of instability. On January 14, former US President Donald Trump stated in a media interview that he currently has no plans to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. On January 13, he had said he intended to push for the nomination of a successor for the Fed chair within weeks. On January 16, US Secretary of Commerce Luteinik threatened South Korean and other memory chip manufacturers, stating they could face tariffs of up to 100% if they do not commit to increasing production within the United States. Elon Musk has formally filed a lawsuit in court demanding compensation of $79 billion to $134 billion from OpenAI and its partner Microsoft. The lawsuit alleges that OpenAI abandoned its non-profit founding mission, shifted to a for-profit model, and formed a deep alliance with Microsoft, constituting fraud. The case is scheduled to go to trial in late April in Oakland, California. On January 15, the US Treasury Department announced sanctions against multiple Iranian individuals and entities, as well as several foreign companies associated with Iran. Those sanctioned include Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Data released by the US Labor Department on January 15 showed that the number of Americans filing initial jobless claims last week was 198,000, lower than the market consensus expectation of 212,000 and the previous week's revised figure of 207,000. Federal Reserve official Goolsbee stated that despite a strong US job market and solid economic performance, there is still "considerable" room for interest rate cuts, provided there is clear and sustained evidence of inflation falling back to the 2% target. Preliminary data released by the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on January 15 showed that, after price adjustment, Germany's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in real terms in 2025 compared to the previous year, ending a two-year contraction. Former US President Donald Trump's hesitant attitude towards nominating Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, for the position of Federal Reserve Chair has further heightened uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy outlook, leading traders to reduce expectations for two US interest rate cuts in 2026. On January 16, Trump, speaking about Hassett and the Fed position, expressed a desire to keep Hassett at the National Economic Council. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that, given risks in the labor market, the Fed should be prepared to cut interest rates again and should not signal a pause in the rate-cutting cycle. On January 14, the White House announced that, starting January 15, it would impose an additional 25% ad valorem tariff on certain imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives. On January 12, the UK's communications regulator, Ofcom, issued a statement saying it has launched a formal investigation into the social media platform X, owned by US entrepreneur Elon Musk, under the UK's Online Safety Act. The investigation aims to determine whether the platform has fulfilled its duty to protect the UK public from illegal content. This investigation will be treated as a "highest priority matter" and does not rule out the possibility of blocking the X platform "in the most serious cases." On January 10, the Indonesian government announced a temporary ban on the chatbot "Grok," developed by US entrepreneur Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI, due to concerns it could be used to generate pornographic content. On January 10, in the capital Riyadh, the Chief Advisor to the Saudi Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, Ambassa Gandil, expressed anticipation for Chinese new energy enterprises to enter the Saudi market, deepening cooperation between the two countries in key areas like low-carbon transition, and aiding Saudi Arabia in realizing its "Vision 2030." On the same day, Chinese new energy company CATL inaugurated its "Ningde" Service Experience Center in Riyadh, its first after-sales market facility in the Middle East and its largest overseas, aiming to perfect the after-sales service system for Chinese new energy products in the Middle East and provide "full lifecycle" support for electrification and energy storage applications. Turkey's Energy Minister, Bayraktar, stated that Turkey plans to resume natural gas imports from Turkmenistan in 2026 and increase purchase volumes. According to a report from the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on January 16, the Iranian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned a recent statement issued by the G7 interfering in Iran's internal affairs, calling the statement a clear example of double standards. Editor: Luo Hao
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