On June 15th, our view last Friday was that the sudden announcement by former President Trump to cancel planned military strikes against Iran, which eased Middle East tensions and pressured oil prices lower, coupled with a cooling market expectation for a Fed rate hike, supported a rise in gold. Consequently, our operational advice was to watch for support at $4,170, then $4,120, and for resistance at $4,250, then $4,300.
Looking at the subsequent price action, during Friday's European session, gold rebounded to meet resistance at $4,227 and fell back. After the US market opened, it dropped to find support at $4,177, then rebounded to encounter resistance again at $4,235. Following this, the gold price stabilized above the key $4,200 level and tested the $4,235 resistance once more before the close. At the opening this Monday, gold gapped higher, rising to meet resistance at $4,309. After pulling back to find support at $4,280, gold tested the $4,308 resistance again before breaking higher, refreshing the daily high to $4,335, and is currently trading around $4,325. Overall, gold found support near our indicated $4,170 level and rose, breaking through the $4,300 key level, showing relatively strong short-term performance.
Wolfinance Star Analyst's Perspective
The Wolfinance star analyst believes that gold faced pressure last week, hitting a new six-month low, but subsequently found a bottom and rebounded, with the upward move extending after this week's opening. This is primarily due to a cooling in market expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, which has supported the rise in gold prices. Specifically, previously released US non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market, and US CPI data hit a new three-year high. These factors reinforced market bets on a Fed rate hike, supporting the US dollar and Treasury yields, directly pressuring gold prices. By last Friday, gold found a bottom and rebounded, continuing its rise this Monday. This is mainly because last Thursday's sudden announcement by former President Trump to cancel military strikes against Iran, followed by a US-Iran peace agreement over the weekend and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, continued to pressure oil prices lower, refreshing a three-month low. This alleviated inflation concerns and reduced the urgency for the Fed to maintain high interest rates for an extended period. The market's expectation for a Fed rate hike cooled, supporting the rebound in gold prices.
Technical Analysis on the Daily Chart
On the daily chart, gold has found a bottom and rebounded, recovering all losses from the past week, showing relatively strong short-term performance. For downside support in gold, attention can be paid to the gap-up resistance level at $4,309 from today's opening, where the price was rejected twice before breaking higher. Next, watch the pullback low near $4,280 after that resistance, where the price found support repeatedly to rise. If the price falls further from here, upward momentum would weaken, and gold may enter a consolidation phase. For upside resistance in gold, attention can be paid to the May low of $4,366. After gold broke downward in early June, it rebounded to test this level and encountered resistance before continuing its decline. Next, watch the key $4,400 level. The death cross of the 5-day moving average has slowed significantly, the MACD indicator's death cross is turning upward, and the KDJ and RSI indicators have formed golden crosses. Short-term technical indicators suggest that after stopping its decline and rebounding, gold has the potential for further gains.
Intraday Gold Outlook
The peace agreement between the US and Iran has pressured oil prices to a fresh three-month low, alleviating inflation concerns. Market expectations for Fed rate hikes have cooled, weighing on the US dollar and Treasury yields and supporting the rebound in gold prices. Operationally, it is suggested to approach with a range-trading mindset. Downside support can be watched at $4,309 and $4,280, while upside resistance can be watched at $4,366 and $4,400.
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