AMD Stock: One Of The Best Secular Growth Plays In The Semiconductor Industry

Seeking Alpha2021-09-17

Summary AMD has transformed its business and financial profile in the past few years, being now one of the best growth plays in the semiconductor industry. Its recent growth has been impressive, ...

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Comments

Tanyl
2021-09-17
Tanyl
Can start think to buy AMD share
edelyu
2021-09-17
edelyu
Awesome company
Sriwonc
2021-09-17
Sriwonc
Like pls
- Jinlim:
  Ok
Lenaz
2021-09-17
Lenaz
Pls like & comment, thank you ?
- Boink:
  Ok
- MarcO:
  sure
- Johnjohnn:
  Nice
- Gamestonk:
  |
- Missunnymay:
  Ok
waiwaiho
2021-09-17
waiwaiho
Pls like & comment, thanks
- waiwaiho:
  thanks
- YJ12:
  hi2
Jasonngui
2021-09-17
Jasonngui
Wow
- Jasonngui:
  Great

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Its main competitors are Intel(INTC) and Nvidia(NVDA), which historically have been the leading companies in its respective segments (CPUs and GPUs). AMD was founded in 1969 and trades on the NASDAQ and has nowadays a market value of about $127 billion.\nAMD is a fabless company, which means that it designs its chips but does not have its own production facilities, relying on third-parties for the production phase of which its main supplier is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM). AMD has a diversified customer base, with no one representing more than 10% of its annual revenues, and more than 75% of its revenues are generated internationally showing that AMD is a global company.\nLast October, AMD entered intoan agreement to acquire Xilinx(XLNX), in an all-stock deal valued at $35 billion at the time. The strategic rationale of this acquisition is to enhance AMD's position in the industry, especially in the high performance computing segment. This deal is expected to close by the end of 2021 and should lead to cost synergies and stronger innovation and product differentiation, boding well for AMD's growth and profitability in the future.\nAMD's Growth\nAs I've analyzed in a previous article on \"ASML: A Fantastic Company For Long-Term Investors\", the semiconductor industry has very good long-term growth prospects due to several sources of innovation that should support growth for many years down the road across the industry.\nIndeed, according to MarketWatch, the semiconductor industry is projected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% during 2021-28, with the Logic segment being the major growth driver, which bodes quite well for AMD's growth prospects.\nBeyond positive industry tailwinds, AMD also has good growth prospects from improved fundamentals, as the company has improved significantly its competitive position in the industry compared to its history. While Intel was the leading chip company for many years in the PC segment, the rise of new technologies and chip applications in recent years has changed the industry landscape.\nAMD is now in a very good position to be a major player in the rise of high performance computing, artificial intelligence and gaming, which are growing markets and where AMD's market share is still relatively low. According to the company, total addressable market for data center, PCs and gaming is about $79 billion, thus AMD has plenty of growth opportunities both from overall industry growth and market share gains from its competitors.\nSource: AMD.\nThis is supported by AMD's product portfolio across several applications that is currently in a leadership position regarding performance, which is a critical factor for both individual and corporate customers when deciding to buy PCs for instance, and also power efficiency which is more important for data center customers.\nDuring 2020, AMD released multiple products based in advanced technologies of 7 nanometer (nm), including Ryzen for desktops, Radeon for gaming and expanded its EPYC processor family dedicated to data centers. This push from AMD has made it very competitive both with Intel and NVIDIA and has led to outstanding revenue growth in recent quarters, showing that demand in the Logic segment comes mainly from superior technology rather than pricing.\nThis bodes well for AMD's revenue growth in the near future as Intel has struggled to develop new products that are competitive and its recent product roadmap seems to be more of a catch-up to competitors, rather than returning to a leadership position.\nFor long-term investors, this means that AMD is well positioned to benefit from secular growth trends in the semiconductor industry, even though competition in the industry is fierce and Intel and NVIDIA are also constantly innovating and delivering new products into the market (NVIDIA is expected to enter the CPU market for high performance computing in 2023, for example) so the industry landscape can change quite rapidly and no player should assume that is capable to have an undisputed technological leadership over the long term.\nBeyond its growth opportunities in data center, PCs and gaming, AMD also has good prospects in the automotive industry, namely in supplying chips for infotainment systems. For instance, the company was able to gain Tesla(TSLA) as a customer over Intel in the Model S/X infotainment systems, even though its presence in the automotive industry remains limited.\nTo strengthen AMD's position into new industries, such as automotive, AMD agreed almost one year ago to buy Xilinx, a combination that would diversify further its business and also strengthen its position in data centers. This would increase AMD's total addressable market to about $110 billion and is expected to be financially accretive before synergies, making this deal very interesting for AMD. It is not certain that the deal will be approved in all countries (with China possibly being the more difficult to get regulatory approval), but if it gets the 'green light' the market will, most likely, receive well this deal.\nSource: AMD.\nAMD Financial Performance\nRegarding its financial performance, AMD has a very good history especially over the past couple of years. Supported by the company's improved product portfolio, AMD's revenues and earnings increased markedly, with the company reporting record results in the last year. Nevertheless, AMD's revenues increased at a CAGR of 22% from 2016 to 2020, showing that AMD was able to increase revenues consistently over the past few years.\nIn 2020, AMD's revenues increased by 45% to $9.8 billion, its gross margin improved to 45% and AMD's net income was close to $2.5 billion. However, AMD recognized a $1.3 billion tax gain related to deferred tax assets, thus its 'clean' net income was close to $1.2 billion, which was nonetheless a big improvement compared to 2019 (net income of $341 million).\nMost of its revenue growth came from higher volumes in the computing and graphics business, which were boosted by several product launches during 2020, but also from the pandemic that led to higher demand for consumer electronics and gaming products, but also from higher revenue in the data center segment.\nDuring the first six months of 2021, AMD maintained a very strong operating momentum, boosted by its product portfolio. In the second quarter of 2021, AMD reported revenues of $3.85 billion (+99% YoY) to a new quarterly record, its gross margin increased to 48%, net income amounted to $710 million (+350% YoY) and free cash flow reached a new record of $888 million in the quarter.\nSource: AMD.\nThis outstanding performance was driven by all of its segments, but the Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment had a stellar performance with revenues up by 160% YoY, showing that AMD's product portfolio is of great quality and is winning market share over its competitors, especially in the data center segment.\nThis strong growth in data center is not expected to change soon, given that AMD has clearly a technological leadership over its main competitor Intel, which in my opinion can't be separated from TSMC's strong manufacturing capacities. Given that AMD is a fabless company, it relies heavily on TSMC's production capabilities, which are currently the most advanced in the industry.\nOn the other hand, Intel has had several setbacks in its technological developments, namely the 7nm process delays and is not expected to be on par with TSMC in the next 2-3 years. Moreover, TSMC is already working on the 3nm process, which AMD can potentially use to improve even further its server's chips and maintain an edge over Intel in the coming years, even though in the coming months its new products are expected to be produced using the 5nm process.\nThis competitive dynamic has been evident over the past few quarters, with AMD's revenue growth dwarfing Intel in the data center segment, which over the past few years has been the major growth area for Intel. As I've discussed recently on \"Intel Doesn't Offer Much Value\", Intel's recent announcement regarding its product portfolio didn't impress the market and it doesn't appear to be a game changer and therefore AMD is expected to continue to gain market share over the next 2-3 years.\nMore recently, there were some rumors about possible price cuts from Intel to be more competitive, but in my opinion, this is the wrong approach because this is a segment where performance and energy efficiency are more important than just pricing, thus AMD's position is not expected to change unless new products from its competitors can beat AMD's EPYC processors on these measures.\nGoing forward, AMD's growth rates should start to decrease somewhat as annual comparisons become tougher, but nevertheless its growth prospects over the medium term are quite good. Indeed, according to analysts' estimates, AMD's revenues are expected to be about $15.6 billion in 2021 (+60% YoY), while the annual growth rate should decrease to between 15-20% in the following four years, to revenues of about $28 billion by 2025. This represents a CAGR of around 16% over the next four years, which is still quite good. However, these expectations don't include the pending merger with Xilinx and if the deal goes ahead, AMD's annual revenue growth over the next five years may be close to 20%.\nBeyond strong revenue growth, AMD's margins are also expected to improve given that its gross margin was 45% in 2020 and should be above consistently above 50% after 2023. This means that earnings growth should be somewhat higher than revenue growth during this period, which makes sense as the company becomes more efficient as costs should increase at a lower rate than revenues, plus its margins can be even higher than currently expected through synergies achieve from the integration of Xilinx.\nAMD Balance Sheet & Capital Returns\nRegarding its balance sheet, AMD has a very good position considering that at the end of June it had $3.79 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while its total debt was only $313 million. This financial profile is much improved from a few years ago and is not expected to change if the Xilinx deal is approved, as Xilinx also has a strong net cash position and cash flow generation will be improved for the combined companies.\nThis means that AMD is nowadays in a good position to deliver strong capital returns to shareholders, while in the past its shareholder remuneration policy has been weaker. AMD does not pay dividends, but has done share buybacks, which I expect to remain the preferred way to return capital to shareholders in the short term.\nHowever, I think that a dividend distribution is possible over the next few years as the company has improved a lot its financial profile in recent years and has plenty of capacity to distribute a sustainable dividend over the long term. This would be a very positive signal from AMD's management about its confidence in the company's long-term fundamentals and could also be positive for its share price because it would attract a more diverse shareholder base.\nBottom Line\nAMD's recent growth has been impressive and its financial profile is quite robust, a huge transformation from a few years ago. AMD has a strong product portfolio and a good competitive position in the semiconductor industry, being very well positioned to ride the secular growth trend expected in this industry over the next decade.\nDespite these strong fundamentals, AMD is tradingat about 36x its earnings expected over the coming 12 months, at a discount to other secular growth companies in the semiconductor industry, such as Nvidia or ASML(ASML) that trade closer to 50x forward earnings, being therefore attractive on a relative basis.\nMoreover, on an absolute basis my valuation approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of 2-4 years. Therefore, I'll 2025 estimates to see if AMD is currently undervalued or not and its historical valuation over the past couple of years based on earnings for the next 12 months (blended forward earnings).\nIts historical valuation, based on Bloomberg data, has been on average about 42x over the past two years, and taking into account 2025 EPS estimate of $5.06, my price target for end-2024 is $215 per share, which is only more than double AMD's current share price. 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