In a market where trends shift rapidly, how can a mature industry leader stabilize its valuation core and avoid significant discounts amid fluctuating market sentiment? The recent movements in the A-share market have drawn significant attention. One school of thought posits this is a revaluation of A-shares, where traditional consumer stocks, represented by Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. (SH: 600519), are making their exit, and the market is now willing to pay a premium for high-growth hard tech and global industrial influence. Another perspective argues that newly popular thematic stocks, like semiconductors, are filled with bubbles and risk imminent collapse. Both views are somewhat one-sided, missing the fundamental logic of valuation: a company's market capitalization is driven in the short term by sector momentum and trading capital, but its long-term valuation anchor is always rooted in its intrinsic value creation capability. Growth stocks and value stocks are simply two different asset classes; they are not mutually exclusive substitutes. Stocks in the computing power sector, like Inphi, enjoy high valuations primarily due to the long-term growth of the AI industry and sustained high earnings growth, which brings a growth premium. Meanwhile, Moutai's ability to consistently serve as a market stabilizer relies on its perpetual cash flow through cycles and a stable shareholder return system, appealing to different investor groups.
Looking deeper, the discussion raises a more essential question: how can a mature leader stabilize its valuation core in a fast-rotating market to avoid significant discounts from sentiment swings? The answer may lie in market value management. The adage "Moutai is the iron anchor, while stock kings come and go" reflects that Kweichow Moutai has long established a systematic, actionable market value management framework. It does not rely on hot themes to drive its stock price, nor does it blindly follow trends in capital operations. Instead, it is grounded in stable operations, employing a combination of high-ratio dividends, large-scale share buybacks for cancellation, controlling shareholder share purchases, and regular investor relations management to consistently smooth stock price volatility and anchor long-term market expectations. This article will attempt to deconstruct the full toolkit of Moutai's market value management and review the valuation logic behind its long-term value.
Benchmark for A-Share Dividends
With the formal implementation of the "Regulatory Guidelines for Listed Companies No. 10 – Market Value Management" in 2024, the document clearly defines cash dividends as the most fundamental and compliant tool for market value management and the most direct channel for delivering intrinsic value to investors. Recently, at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum, CSRC Chairman Wu Qing reiterated the need to reinforce listed companies' responsibility for shareholder returns, guide firms to effectively use dividends and buyback tools, and establish a long-term value pricing mechanism. Within the baijiu industry and across the entire A-share market, Kweichow Moutai stands as the absolute benchmark for dividends. Just on June 22, the company announced its "2025 Annual Rights Distribution Implementation Plan," detailing a cash dividend of 28.02 yuan per share, totaling approximately 35.033 billion yuan. The record date is June 25, with the ex-dividend date on June 26, and cash payments scheduled for June 26. Including the third-quarter dividend for 2025, Moutai's total cash dividend payout for 2025 amounts to 65.033 billion yuan, representing 79% of its net profit attributable to shareholders. This marks the second year of its institutionalized dividend policy. In 2024, the company released its "2024-2026 Cash Dividend Return Plan," committing to an annual payout ratio of no less than 75% of net profit and adopting an "annual + interim" distribution model.
Extending the timeline, since its listing in 2001, the company has distributed cash dividends 30 times, with a cumulative total of 401.145 billion yuan. Over the same period, it achieved a cumulative net profit of 641.437 billion yuan, resulting in an average payout ratio of 62.54% and a staggering dividend-to-financing ratio of 17,873.29%. In a horizontal comparison, Moutai's dividend capability leads the industry by a wide margin. From 2016 to 2025, the company distributed dividends 14 times, with a total payout of 366.022 billion yuan, accounting for 69.67% of its cumulative net profit over the decade. Both the frequency and total amount of dividends rank first in the baijiu sector. While Tianyoude Liquor has a slightly higher dividend payout ratio, its total dividend amount is only 311 million yuan, placing it in a completely different league in terms of scale.
Stable dividends have directly reshaped the secondary market pricing benchmark for Kweichow Moutai. Its trailing twelve-month dividend yield stands at 4.23%, significantly higher than the Wind All-A Index average of 1.72%. Its latest annualized dividend yield is 3.77%, well above the market average of 1.42%. In a low-interest-rate era, stable high-dividend assets inherently provide valuation support and can substantially dampen short-term stock price volatility, becoming a core reason for long-term capital allocation. At the Kweichow Moutai 2025 Annual Shareholders' Meeting held this June, numerous shareholders expressed that, considering dividend yield and asset preservation, they remain optimistic about Moutai's allocation value.
Repurchases and Share Purchases as Dual Tools for Valuation Repair
If cash dividends represent the routine delivery of returns, then share buybacks and substantial share purchases by the controlling shareholder are the two key hedging tools in Moutai's market value management toolkit for repairing valuation and stabilizing market expectations. These tools, differing in their executing entities, funding sources, and functions, complement each other to build a dual-layer safety net for the stock price. Historically, prior to 2024, Kweichow Moutai had never conducted a secondary market share buyback in over two decades of being listed. It was only in September 2024 and November 2025 that the company successively launched two large-scale buyback plans, with all repurchased shares used for cancellation to reduce registered capital. Unlike buybacks for employee incentive plans, the core purpose here is to directly enhance earnings per share and correct market undervaluation.
Specifically, the first buyback program had a range of 3 to 6 billion yuan, ultimately utilizing nearly 6 billion yuan at the upper limit to repurchase and cancel 3.9276 million shares. The second program, planned for 1.5 to 3 billion yuan, concluded with nearly 3 billion yuan used to repurchase and cancel 2.1886 million shares. Both buybacks were executed during phases of stock price correction, using the company's own funds to send a signal of its value assessment to the market, aiming to stabilize the secondary market valuation core. Notably, at the previous annual shareholders' meeting, shareholders including well-known investor Lin Yuan unanimously urged the company to further increase buybacks for cancellation, thereby enhancing EPS by reducing the share float and directly conveying confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
Concurrently, Moutai Group has conducted multiple substantial share purchases, using real capital to convey the controlling shareholder's long-term confidence. An analysis of the controlling shareholder's purchase history reveals a pattern in timing: First, acting as a stabilizer during industry downturns. Following the plasticizer incident in November 2012, which pressured the entire sector, the controlling shareholder announced a purchase plan in December 2012. Again, as the baijiu industry entered an adjustment cycle from 2024 to 2025, with sector indices declining, the controlling shareholder stepped in to support the price in August 2025. Second, making significant purchases during periods of deep price correction. After the stock price peaked in early 2008 and subsequently trended downward, the controlling shareholder made purchases in May 2010. Following the plasticizer风波, which led to a sector-wide decline, the controlling shareholder acted again in September 2013. After the stock price hit a historic high of 2,627.88 yuan in February 2021 and then declined, reaching a阶段性 low of 1,525.50 yuan in August, the controlling shareholder, jointly with its concert party Moutai Technical Development Co., announced a purchase plan in November of that year, with funding sourced from a special dividend.
Unlike short-term speculative trading, the controlling shareholder's purchases are all subject to long-term lock-up periods and are often timed for market sentiment lows. These five rounds of purchases have covered multiple adverse environments, including industry crises, consumption cycle downturns, and sector valuation corrections. Each instance effectively helped修复 market pessimism and conveyed confidence in the company's and the industry's development to the secondary market.
Effective Investor Relations for Consistent Value Communication
Of course, market value management encompasses more than just dividends, buybacks, and shareholder purchases; a complete system also includes standardized information disclosure and regular investor communication, among other methods. For Moutai, high-quality investor relations management serves as the critical bridge in its toolkit connecting the company's intrinsic value with its market valuation. The company has established multi-level, regular communication channels covering institutional research, online earnings briefings, offline shareholders' meetings, investor reverse roadshows, and social responsibility reports, maintaining efficient and transparent dialogue with the capital market.
The annual offline shareholders' meeting is a core scenario for investor relations. Taking the 2025 meeting as an example, numerous public funds, private funds, and individual shareholders attended. Management provided clear, quantifiable, and actionable official responses to three key market focus areas: the pace of capacity expansion, the product pricing system, and internationalization strategy. Many investors present noted that prior fragmented rumors about Moutai's capacity and wholesale prices were effectively addressed through face-to-face Q&A, leading to a clearer, more rational understanding of the company's medium-to-long-term growth potential and helping to dispel extreme market expectations, whether overly pessimistic or optimistic.
Regular information disclosure and ESG reporting complement the investor relations framework. The company publishes a detailed annual social responsibility report on time, fully disclosing efforts in rural revitalization, supply chain support, low-carbon production, and investor returns, thereby communicating its long-term sustainable operating logic to the market. For data of high market interest, such as channel inventory, overseas revenue, and base liquor production capacity, the company proactively discloses information through periodic reports, research activities, and earnings calls, avoiding speculative trading and sharp price swings driven by information asymmetry.
Data provides strong evidence. Since 2023, Kweichow Moutai has held three earnings briefings annually. The May 11 briefing for the 2025 annual and 2026 first-quarter results alone addressed nearly 30 investor questions. Unlike many companies that only engage with institutions passively during significant price movements, Moutai's investor relations operate consistently throughout the year, continuously conveying the真实 operating status to the capital market. This fundamentally reduces market expectation偏差, achieving the market value management goal of "operational transparency and rationalized expectations."
The Core of Moutai's Market Value Management: Managing Expectations
Observing market value operations among A-share companies, many equate market value management with short-term stock price manipulation, relying on cross-sector themes,热点 mergers, or short-term financial engineering to create行情. Kweichow Moutai's comprehensive toolkit presents a completely different logic: the core of market value management is not "inflating the stock price" but "rationally managing market expectations." Moutai's confidence in managing expectations is built upon its robust operational fundamentals. Since listing, the company's revenue and net profit have maintained steady growth, with cumulative profits reaching 641.437 billion yuan. The company boasts ample cash flow, consistently holding hundreds of billions in cash on its balance sheet, carrying no interest-bearing debt, and has never conducted secondary equity financing in its 25 years as a listed company, reflecting a very healthy financial structure.
Broadening the perspective to compare with overseas spirits or consumer giants, Moutai's market value management also exhibits unique characteristics. Overseas spirits leaders like Diageo and Pernod Ricard follow highly similar paths, relying on global acquisitions to expand their brand portfolios while consistently executing large share buybacks for cancellation to boost EPS. Their dividend ratios are more restrained, serving merely as a baseline for capital allocation. Mature mass-consumption leaders like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and McDonald's rely on light-asset models and perpetual operating cash flow to solidify their dividend foundations. Buybacks serve only as a hedge against valuation corrections, with strict restraint on large, cash-consuming acquisitions. They then stabilize long-term market expectations through standardized, transparent investor communication.
Taking Coca-Cola as an example, it prioritizes stable dividends in its capital allocation, with a long-term official financial goal of using approximately 75% of free cash flow for cash dividends. The company has increased its annual dividend for 64 consecutive years, recognized as a "Dividend Aristocrat" in the U.S. stock market. In 2025, with a net profit of $7.408 billion, its cash dividend支出 reached $8.8 billion. Over the past decade, cumulative dividends approached $70 billion, with a dividend yield consistently stable between 2.5% and 2.7%, perfectly matching the allocation needs of pension funds, insurance companies, and long-term value investors. Such market value management has been rewarded with steady stock price appreciation, showing a sustained upward trend since 2009, particularly exhibiting a near-unidirectional rise post-2020.
In comparison, Kweichow Moutai's market value management distinctly differs from the "acquisition + buyback-driven" model of Diageo and Pernod Ricard. While it shares similarities with the "dividend-centric" value operation path of mature international consumer giants, it also exhibits differences, ultimately being more tailored to the characteristics of the A-share market. Currently, the baijiu industry is in a phase of deep adjustment, with most companies facing pressure on both earnings and stock prices, and Kweichow Moutai's share price has also experienced some波动. However, supported by its millennia-old cultural heritage and essential role in social gatherings and banquets, baijiu possesses a vast and stable consumer base. As a fully competitive, mature industry, its long-term logic has been validated through multiple cycles. This suggests the current adjustment is a temporary phase; once short-term泡沫 are cleared, the long-term development value of the baijiu industry remains promising.
Against this backdrop, all of Moutai's market value management initiatives are based on a 5-10 year long-term operational perspective. The company will not implement short-term, aggressive capital policies merely to counter single-year earnings volatility. The capital market is gradually forming a consensus: Moutai's market value management system is complete, its cash flow safety net is ample, and its shareholder return mechanism is standardized. Short-term sentiment-driven price fluctuations will not alter the company's long-term value core.
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