CICC has released a research report stating that, considering the timing of profit recognition from out-licensing revenue, it has lowered its net profit forecast for 3SBIO (01530) for 2026 by 47% to RMB 3.024 billion and introduced a 2027 net profit forecast of RMB 3.465 billion. The current share price corresponds to a 2026/2027 P/E ratio of 17x/15x. The adjustment to the profit forecast is solely due to changes in the timing of financial statement recognition, and the firm continues to be optimistic about the potential of 707 to become a cornerstone next-generation I/O therapy. CICC maintains its target price of HK$36.5 (corresponding to a 2026/2027 P/E of 27x/24x) and an Outperform rating, implying a 61% upside potential.
CICC's main views are as follows: 2025 performance was largely in line with market expectations. The company reported 2025 results: revenue of RMB 17.696 billion, a year-on-year increase of 94%; net profit attributable to owners/adjusted net profit of RMB 8.482 billion/RMB 8.454 billion, up 306%/265% year-on-year, basically meeting market expectations.
Endogenous revenue declined year-on-year. According to the announcement, recognized out-licensing revenue for 2025 was RMB 9.43 billion. After excluding this, CICC calculates the company's full-year revenue was RMB 8.27 billion (product revenue: RMB 8.01 billion), down 9% year-on-year. In 2025, the company gained approval for TPIAO's CLDT indication and Bairuixin's gastric cancer indication, and submitted NDAs for four products including 613 (IL-1β mAb) and 611 (IL-4R mAb). With the approval and launch of New TPIAO (long-acting ESA) and 608 (IL-17 mAb) in early 2026, CICC believes these are expected to contribute to revenue growth. In November 2025, the company announced plans to spin off Mindi International for a Hong Kong listing, which CICC views as potentially helping the company to further focus on its core innovative businesses.
The 707 collaboration is progressing smoothly, with Pfizer rapidly advancing overseas clinical trials. In May 2025, the company entered into a global collaboration with Pfizer for 707 (PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody) involving a $1.25 billion upfront payment. In 2025, Pfizer disclosed seven clinical trials for 707, including global multi-center Phase III trials for NSCLC and CRC. For 2026, Pfizer plans to initiate over 10 new indication trials and over 10 innovative combination therapy trials. Among these, three global Phase III registration trials for 1L combination therapy in sq & nsq NSCLC and 1L combination therapy in mCRC have already begun patient enrollment. CICC anticipates subsequent clinical data will bring the company additional milestone payments.
The R&D pipeline is robust, with early-stage candidates broadly covering autoimmune indications. 1) Oncology: The company's 705 (PD1/HER2 bispecific) and 706 (PD1/PDL1 bispecific) have both entered Phase II trials; 708 (PD1/TGFβ bispecific), 709 (PD1/LAG3 bispecific), and others have entered Phase I. 2) Autoimmune: 611 (IL4Rα mAb) indications cover the full AD population; early-stage candidates like SSGJ-717 (CD3/BCMA/CD19 TCE) and SSGJ-718 (TL1A/IL-23 bispecific) show potential based on preclinical performance.
Risk warnings include stricter-than-expected drug price controls, clinical trial failures, and new product commercialization falling short of expectations.
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