On December 18, FOREST CABIN initiated its global offering on the Hong Kong stock market, with an expected listing date of December 30. The IPO is priced at HK$77.77 per share, with a base offering of approximately 13.97 million shares. Post-greenshoe, the total shares offered could reach about 16.06 million, corresponding to a fundraising scale of roughly HK$1.09 to 1.25 billion. As the first listed company on the Hong Kong market championing a "local premium skincare" positioning, FOREST CABIN's IPO not only carries its own aspirations for a capital leap but is also regarded as a crucial case study for observing the capital market's valuation of domestic brands' premiumization strategies. Its impressive performance growth, unique brand positioning, and diverse capital backing have drawn significant attention to this listing. However, concurrent market skepticism regarding its premium positioning, competitive resilience, and valuation rationale persists, with multiple underlying challenges gradually coming to light.
FOREST CABIN began its research into camellia-based skincare products in 2012, pioneering the "nourishing skin with oil" concept. Its first camellia rejuvenating essence oil, launched in 2014, became a core product. After years of development, the company now offers a comprehensive range of premium skincare solutions, including essence oils, creams, toners and emulsions, serums, masks, and sunscreen, designed to support a full skincare routine from cleansing and toning to moisturizing and targeted care. As of June 30, 2025, FOREST CABIN provided 230 SKUs.
In terms of financial performance, FOREST CABIN has achieved rapid growth in recent years. From 2022 to 2024, the company's revenue reached 690 million yuan, 800 million yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan respectively, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.3% over the three years. Revenue for the first half of 2025 nearly doubled year-on-year, reaching 1.05 billion yuan. According to its prospectus, business continued to grow from July to October 2025. For the ten months ending October 2025, the company's sales reached 2.01 billion yuan, a surge of 98.3% compared to the same period a year earlier. This growth in sales volume and revenue was primarily driven by new product launches and the ongoing development and expansion of sales channels.
Profitability-wise, the company maintained a gross profit margin consistently above 78% during the reporting periods, exceeding 82% in both 2024 and the first half of 2025. Net profit for 2022, 2023, 2024, and H1 2025 was -36.39 million yuan, 99.66 million yuan, 220 million yuan, and 210 million yuan, respectively. Notably, the net profit for H1 2025 nearly matched the full-year 2024 figure.
Regarding channel strategy, FOREST CABIN has established a dual-drive model encompassing both online and offline presence. The contribution of online channels surged from 45.2% in 2022 to 65.4% in H1 2025, achieved by expanding direct sales through IP matrix operations, in-house live streaming rooms, and collaborations with KOLs/KOCs. Offline, the company steadily expanded its store count to 554 locations, covering new first-tier to third-tier cities, and enhanced its physical footprint through a franchising model and a distributor network.
The cornerstone investor lineup is diverse, with seven investors collectively investing $62 million, accounting for 44.4% of the base offering size. Long-term foreign institutional investor Fidelity International invested $15 million. The Greater Bay Area Homeland Investments Limited, a Chinese government-backed fund, invested $12 million. Chinese private equity firm Zhen Fund invested $10 million. Chinese insurer Dajia Life Insurance invested $5 million. Additionally, private equity funds Duckling Fund, SS Capital, and Yield Royal invested a combined $20 million. This varied cornerstone roster, including international asset management giants, Chinese insurers, and domestic PE firms, demonstrates broad market recognition of its growth potential.
Behind the capital enthusiasm and performance growth, the development logic and market positioning of this self-proclaimed "local premium" domestic brand are facing market scrutiny. According to the prospectus, based on skincare product retail sales, FOREST CABIN ranked 13th among China's premium skincare brands in 2024, and was the only domestic brand within the top 15. This ranking of premium skincare brands is assessed based on six criteria: differentiated product positioning, accumulated expertise in skincare, pricing, R&D, brand image, and channel strategy. Analysis suggests the other anonymous brands in this ranking are globally renowned names, leading to market questions about FOREST CABIN's inclusion alongside these international luxury brands.
An analysis of resource allocation reveals a significant characteristic of "heavy marketing, light R&D." During the reporting periods, the company's selling and distribution expenses were 510 million yuan, 490 million yuan, 690 million yuan, and 580 million yuan, accounting for 73.6%, 60.3%, 56.9%, and 55.2% of revenue for the respective periods, totaling a substantial 2.26 billion yuan. In contrast, R&D expenses for the same periods were 21.12 million yuan, 19.74 million yuan, 30.40 million yuan, and 18.03 million yuan. In the first half of 2025, marketing spending was 32 times greater than R&D investment, a ratio exceeding that of other comparable companies.
Regarding the use of IPO proceeds, only 15% is allocated to technology R&D and product development, while brand building and sales channel investments together account for 40%. This allocation reflects a greater emphasis on cultivating a "brand persona" rather than achieving breakthroughs in core technology.
Furthermore, debates concerning its premium image persist on social media. The operational model featuring the founder's active participation in live streaming is seen as conflicting with the "sense of distance" traditionally cultivated by premium brands, potentially weakening the brand's high-end aura. On the pricing front, frequent promotions like "buy one full-size product, get one free" or offering multiple free deluxe samples effectively lower the average transaction price per item, deviating from the pricing logic typically associated with mid-to-high-end brands.
The competitive pressure FOREST CABIN faces is intensifying across multiple dimensions. China's beauty and skincare market has developed a clear hierarchy of "premium-mid-market-mass market," with fierce competition evident across all price segments. According to GMV data from major e-commerce platforms for January-November 2025, Proya held the top position, followed by Jala Group (HANSAP) in third. Other domestic brands like CHANDO, Winona, and GY also ranked highly. Notably, FOREST CABIN did not appear on this list. As market dividends increasingly shift towards the high-value-added premium segment, these leading brands, already established in the mass and mid-market segments, are collectively accelerating their penetration into the premium space—Proya launched its premium Energy Series, while Shanghai JBM Beauty's high-end brand TAZU exemplifies this trend. The battle among domestic brands for a share of the "premium pie" is heating up, potentially diverting consumer demand away from FOREST CABIN's targeted premium market.
In its core product category, FOREST CABIN's camellia rejuvenating essence oil is facing intense competition from domestic brands, making the sub-sector increasingly crowded. As the company's primary revenue driver, sales of the essence oil have consistently climbed: reaching 220 million yuan, 284 million yuan, 450 million yuan, and 480 million yuan from 2022 to H1 2025, with its contribution to total revenue rising from 31.5% to 45.5%. This high-growth segment has attracted numerous domestic players. Competitors like LAN's Time Elixir Oil, AFU's essential oils, and PMPM's Rose Oil are aggressively expanding their presence. LAN's Time Elixir Oil, which received strategic investment from L'Oréal in November 2025, has shown particularly strong performance. According to weekly rankings on the Taobao platform as of December 26, 2025, this product topped the facial oil category for five consecutive weeks, posing a potential threat to FOREST CABIN's market share.
On the valuation front, FOREST CABIN's IPO implies a total market capitalization of approximately HK$10.9 billion. Based on its financials, this translates to a static P/E ratio of 63.9x for 2024 and a trailing (TTM) P/E ratio of 42.4x for 2025. Comparing this to leading peers in the domestic beauty sector: JBM Beauty, which also employs a multi-brand strategy, has a trailing P/E of around 40.5x; Proya, a leader in e-commerce across categories, has a trailing P/E of just 20.6x; and Genscript Biotech, focused on efficacy-driven skincare, has a trailing P/E of only 17.9x.
FOREST CABIN's valuation premium is significantly higher than these comparable companies. Even considering its "local premium skincare brand" differentiation, the justification for this valuation premium is questionable. A genuine premium positioning typically requires long-term accumulation and support across dimensions like brand power, R&D barriers, and profitability. However, FOREST CABIN currently faces market skepticism over its premium image, coupled with shortcomings such as relatively low R&D investment and high reliance on marketing for sales. A mere "premium label" seems insufficient to warrant such a high valuation level.
It is also noteworthy that the company's founder, Sun Laichun, received nearly 55.7 million yuan in total from two dividend distributions prior to the listing. Furthermore, in May 2025, he realized approximately 22 million yuan through two share transfers, accumulating proceeds exceeding 77 million yuan before the IPO.
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