Gold prices experienced a choppy decline during the previous trading session. The Asian session opened with prices oscillating around the 4480 level, followed by a gradual descent starting in the afternoon session. The U.S. session saw prices touch a daily low near 4426 dollars. The decline failed to extend further, with prices stabilizing towards the close. The session ultimately concluded with gold settling at 4433 dollars, marking a daily bearish candle.
Thursday, June 4th: Many market participants expressed frustration with yesterday's sluggish price action, describing it as inducing drowsiness—neither breaking higher nor lower, reminiscent of a stifling summer afternoon. In reality, this represents the market's typical behavior ahead of major data releases. The ADP employment report, often considered a precursor to the official non-farm payrolls, was released last night, showing the private sector added 122,000 jobs in May, reaching a 16-month high.
What does this signify? The labor market appears more resilient than many anticipated. Despite over three months of conflict in the Middle East and soaring energy prices, corporate hiring seems largely unaffected. This is not favorable news for gold—strong employment suggests the economy remains on solid footing, reducing the Federal Reserve's urgency to cut interest rates and even raising the possibility of future hikes. This logic underpinned the downward pressure on gold prices last night.
However, it's important to note that the ADP report is merely the "appetizer." The main event remains the official non-farm payrolls report scheduled for Friday. Tonight's ISM Services PMI will also serve as a crucial indicator—given the service sector's dominant role in the U.S. economy, weakness here would undermine the Fed's rationale for considering rate hikes.
Additionally, former President Trump suggested a U.S.-Iran agreement could be reached "this weekend," citing "very good" progress in negotiations and a potential reopening of the Strait. Why did gold prices not react more negatively? The market has grown skeptical. Similar optimistic statements have been made numerous times over recent weeks, with no tangible de-escalation following. Consequently, the market has become desensitized to "verbal peace." The prevailing belief is that until an agreement is signed and weapons are laid down, such pronouncements carry little weight.
From a technical perspective, although yesterday's decline was not particularly extensive, the overall momentum remained weak, with few significant rebound attempts throughout the session. Even with a slight bounce at the open this morning, price action encountered renewed selling pressure around 4475. Therefore, the intraday hourly chart continues to suggest a continuation of the corrective pattern, though the potential downside scope may be limited for now. On the upside, initial resistance is seen around the hourly trendline near 4480, with the primary resistance zone remaining at yesterday's high of 4495-4500. On the downside, support is initially observed around 4450/40, with a high probability of a break lower. A further test of support near the 4400 level remains a possibility.
In summary, the short-to-medium-term outlook remains biased towards consolidation with a weak undertone, with the core trading range tentatively viewed as 4400–4500. The key potential catalyst for a significant shift this week is the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday evening. The primary strategy for the day is to favor short positions on rallies towards resistance, with a secondary approach of cautiously testing long positions near the 4400 support level. If prices continue to hover around 4450 during the Asian session, a wait-and-see approach is advisable until the European session provides clearer direction.
Therefore, the following intraday trading suggestions are proposed:
Gold: Consider short positions in the 4472-4470 range, with a stop-loss above 4480, targeting 4420-4410. If prices decisively break and hold above 4480, consider closing short positions and looking for long entry opportunities on a pullback, targeting higher levels sequentially.
Key economic data and events to watch today, Thursday, June 4th, 2026:
19:30 US May Challenger Job Cuts
20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 30
20:30 Fed's Barkin participates in a discussion
22:00 US May Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
Next Day 01:10 Fed's Daly delivers remarks
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