The US Treasury's newly initiated long-term bond repurchase program is reshaping macro liquidity expectations and is widely viewed as a pivotal turning point for easing pressure in the cryptocurrency market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly confirmed that the government will conduct such operations on a regular basis, aiming to provide structural support for Bitcoin (BTC) to break free from the constraints of high yields by intervening in bond market fundamentals.
The disclosure of policy details triggered an immediate market response. Bessent revealed to CNBC that the repurchase scale could exceed the previously announced $4 billion cap, with the core logic being to correct the deviation between bond yields and fundamental values. At the time, the 10-year US Treasury yield hovered at 4.68%, up 3 basis points from the previous day—though shy of its intraday high, it still constituted a significant source of pressure.
As this intervention signal was released, Bitcoin's price responded swiftly, nearly touching the $73,000 mark. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that capital flows are highly sensitive to interest rates, and Bessent's remarks directly triggered a valuation repair in risk assets, indicating that the market has interpreted the Treasury's action as a substantive hedge against rising long-term borrowing costs.
Mark Connors, Chief Investment Officer at Risk Dimensions, provided an in-depth analysis of this development. He pointed out that the current $4 billion scale is merely the starting point, and as the government faces increasing difficulty in finding buyers for its debt, monthly repurchase amounts are expected to expand into the $10 billion to $30 billion range. This liquidity injection has altered BTC's cycle expectations: Connors no longer believes prices will remain depressed through November, and instead argues that if supplementary leverage ratios are relaxed to allow banks to increase Treasury holdings, BTC could head directly toward $180,000.
His long-term price range projection through 2030 stands at $180,000 to $360,000, emphasizing that the repurchase operations, by supporting bond prices and suppressing yields, fundamentally eliminate the macro headwinds that have been crowding out capital from risk assets. Short-term price action, however, will depend on the interplay between technical levels and legislative risks.
The $72,000 mark has become a critical battleground between bulls and bears. Jim Ferraioli, Head of Cryptocurrency Research at Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW.US), noted that a significant concentration of leveraged short positions sits at this level. If BTC maintains a foothold above this threshold, the buying pressure from short covering will accelerate gains; conversely, a break below could trigger cascading liquidations.
The more decisive variable lies in the legislative progress of the Clarity Act. Connors warned that if the bill fails to advance before September 15, market sentiment could deteriorate even under a relatively accommodative regulatory environment, causing BTC to retreat from $72,000. This represents the most significant near-term downside risk in the absence of policy certainty, following the improvement in macro liquidity conditions.
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