CICC has released a research report stating that, considering HUTCHMED's (00013) continuously improving operational efficiency and profitability, it has raised its 2026 net profit forecast by 59% to $55.39 million and introduced a 2027 net profit forecast of $88.91 million. The firm maintains an Outperform rating. Based on a DCF model, it reiterates a target price of HK$30, implying a 36.5% upside potential from the current share price.
The key points from CICC are as follows:
2025 performance aligned with the firm's expectations. The company reported 2025 results: revenue of $549 million, down 13% year-on-year. The Oncology/Immunology comprehensive revenue was $285 million. Net profit attributable to shareholders was $457 million. Excluding the impact from the disposal of its equity in Shanghai HUTCHMED, the core net profit was approximately $41 million, meeting the firm's expectations.
The company guided for 2026 Oncology/Immunology comprehensive revenue between $330 million and $450 million, slightly exceeding the firm's expectations, primarily due to potential R&D revenue that may surpass forecasts.
Fruquintinib's overseas expansion is the main driver of revenue growth, while domestic commercialization showed a significant sequential recovery in the second half of 2025. In 2025, the total market sales of the company's oncology products reached $525 million, up 5% year-on-year. Overseas sales of FRUZAQLA were $362 million, up 26% year-on-year. Despite the impact of Medicare price reductions in the US, markets like Europe and Japan contributed strong growth. Domestic full-year sales of ELUNATE were $100 million, down 13% year-on-year, but second-half 2025 sales increased 33% sequentially, reflecting the results of the commercial team restructuring.
The company is advancing ATTC clinical programs at full speed and actively exploring collaborative development opportunities. HUTCHMED's HMPL-A251 (PI3K/PIKK-HER2 ATTC) and HMPL-A580 (PI3K/PIKK-EGFR ATTC) have entered global clinical trials. The company announced it will seek opportunities for collaborative development of ATTC with multinational corporations in 2026. The firm believes the ATTC mechanism is novel; successful collaboration with an MNC would clarify its future global commercial value and could support the company's positive 2026 performance guidance.
More catalysts for core products in 2026 warrant attention. 1) Savolitinib: The company expects data from the global registration clinical trial SAFFRON to be available in the second half of 2026, supporting a U.S. New Drug Application. Data from the SANOVO trial is also expected within the next 12 months. 2) Sovleplenib: The domestic New Drug Application for immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) was accepted in February 2026. The company plans to submit an NDA for warm antibody autoimmune hemolytic anemia (wAIHA) in the first half of 2026.
Risk factors include R&D failures, commercialization underperformance, intensifying competition, and delays in external collaborations.
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