Earning Preview: Collegium Pharmaceutical this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 14.78%, and institutional views are predominantly bullish
Abstract
Collegium Pharmaceutical is scheduled to report quarterly results on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market, with expectations pointing to higher year-over-year revenue and EPS supported by a resilient brand portfolio, strong gross margin carryover, and constructive sell-side sentiment into the print.
Market Forecast
Based on current-quarter estimates, Collegium Pharmaceutical’s revenue is expected to be 206.36 million, up 14.78% year over year, while adjusted EPS is projected at $2.33, up 51.26% year over year; EBIT is estimated at 104.62 million, a 131.20% increase year over year. These projections imply modest sequential revenue moderation of roughly 1.43% from the previous quarter’s actual 209.36 million, with a slight sequential uptick in EPS from $2.25.
The company’s core product portfolio remains the engine of earnings quality, with contributions anchored by buprenorphine (Belbuca), tapentadol (Nucynta franchise), and oxycodone ER (Xtampza ER), supporting elevated gross margins and earnings leverage into the quarter.
Among branded assets, buprenorphine (Belbuca) appears positioned as the most dependable revenue contributor, delivering 58.26 million last quarter; year-over-year growth for this product was not disclosed.
Last Quarter Review
Collegium Pharmaceutical reported revenue of 209.36 million (up 31.43% year over year), a gross profit margin of 89.65%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.51 million with a net profit margin of 15.05%, and adjusted EPS of $2.25 (up 39.75% year over year).
A notable highlight was outperformance versus consensus: revenue exceeded estimates by 20.24 million, and EPS surpassed expectations by $0.21.
By business line, buprenorphine (Belbuca) contributed 58.26 million (27.83% of total), tapentadol (Nucynta franchise) 54.80 million (26.18%), oxycodone ER (Xtampza ER) 50.48 million (24.11%), Jornay PM 41.80 million (19.97%), and Symproic 4.03 million (1.92%); product-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main business momentum and revenue quality
Collegium Pharmaceutical enters the quarter with a favorable earnings setup: estimates imply mid-teens year-over-year revenue growth to 206.36 million and more than 50% year-over-year growth in adjusted EPS to $2.33. The composition of revenue remains weighted to high-value, branded pain medicines and an ADHD asset, a mix that historically supports robust gross profitability; last quarter’s 89.65% gross margin underlines this structural advantage. Even though the estimate suggests a slight sequential revenue pullback of about 1.43% from the prior quarter’s 209.36 million, the EPS estimate points to sequential improvement, signaling continued operating leverage and disciplined expense control.
The durability of the earnings model rests on consistent demand across the key brands and tight execution in pricing, contracting, and cost management. A portfolio anchored by buprenorphine, tapentadol, and oxycodone ER typically generates stable prescriber and patient utilization patterns, helping to smooth revenue variability through the quarter. With an already-elevated gross margin baseline, the company’s ability to sustain mix and maintain efficiency in commercial and manufacturing operations should remain central to the quarter’s profitability outcome, even in the absence of an explicit gross margin forecast.
Guidance commentary will be important to frame the trajectory from these estimates into the rest of the year. Investors will pay close attention to whether management reiterates or refines revenue cadence expectations after a strong prior quarter, and whether the cost base remains aligned with targeted margin outcomes. Any signals of continued overhead discipline, combined with a balanced approach to growth investments, will be viewed as confirming the earnings power implied by the EPS estimate.
Most promising product driver and near-term catalysts
Within the brand set, buprenorphine (Belbuca) appears positioned to remain the most dependable earnings driver given its scale and contribution of 58.26 million last quarter. The breadth of prescriber familiarity and established patient continuity support consistent in-quarter utilization patterns that are less susceptible to sharp swings, enhancing predictability in both revenue and gross profit dollars. While product-level year-over-year growth data were not disclosed, Belbuca’s absolute contribution, when paired with elevated consolidated gross margin, makes it a central pillar of cash generation and EPS resilience this quarter.
The tapentadol (Nucynta) franchise, which contributed 54.80 million last quarter, and oxycodone ER (Xtampza ER), at 50.48 million, collectively dimension a second line of support for consolidated growth. The brand concentration in these three assets supplies a meaningful base of recurring revenue that underpins EBIT expansion; estimates call for EBIT of 104.62 million, up 131.20% year over year, illustrating the degree of operating leverage tied to stable product performance. Together, these brands provide a sizable earnings foundation, and incremental updates on contracting or demand trends around them could nudge consensus perceptions for the remainder of the year.
Although smaller in absolute size, Jornay PM’s 41.80 million last quarter offers an additional path for upside when execution and seasonality align later in the year. In the current quarter, however, investor attention will likely remain focused on the core pain portfolio’s ability to sustain volumes and pricing while preserving the margin profile, as this will be the primary determinant of whether EPS outperforms the already constructive estimate.
Stock-price swing factors this quarter
The most immediate swing factor is the degree to which reported revenue and adjusted EPS match or exceed the 206.36 million and $2.33 estimates, respectively. Given last quarter’s revenue and EPS beats versus estimates, the bar for upside surprise is not trivial, and investors will look for confirmation that cost discipline and product mix can deliver incremental margin support. A second determinant is commentary on the sustainability of gross margin near the recent 89.65% level; while no explicit gross margin forecast is provided, qualitative indications around manufacturing efficiency, mix, and pricing could influence post-print revisions.
A third factor is forward-looking commentary on capital deployment and business development optionality. External views have emphasized balance-sheet flexibility and potential business development as a supportive element of the medium-term story; any additional color on priority areas, pace, or return thresholds could shift the outlook for outer-period EPS and valuation multiples. Finally, explicit reminders of revenue cadence for the remainder of the year—as well as any bracketed ranges around expense growth—would frame the path to delivering on the robust EBIT estimate, which currently implies meaningful margin expansion year over year.
Analyst Opinions
Recent published views from well-followed institutions have been predominantly bullish. In the period since January 1, 2026, we identified multiple Buy/Overweight reiterations accompanied by price-target increases, with no bearish reports surfaced in the same window. On January 7, 2026, Truist Securities raised its price target on Collegium Pharmaceutical to $55 from $48 while maintaining a Buy rating. On February 10, 2026, Truist further adjusted its price target to $58 and maintained a Buy rating; aggregated data at that time indicated an average rating of Overweight with a mean price target of $53.67. In addition, Needham & Company’s Serge Belanger maintained a Buy rating and raised the firm’s price target to $56, citing a strengthened outlook, balance-sheet flexibility, and the potential for business development to enhance shareholder value. Taken together, the ratio of bullish to bearish opinions among the recent notes reviewed stands at 100% bullish.
The bullish camp’s reasoning centers on earnings durability and optionality. First, analysts point to consistent execution across the core branded portfolio, which underpins visibility into top-line delivery near the 206.36 million estimate and provides the foundation for margin support. That foundation is reflected in the prior quarter’s 89.65% gross margin and the current-quarter EPS estimate of $2.33, up 51.26% year over year; this setup suggests the company can deliver bottom-line expansion even with only modest sequential fluctuations in revenue. Second, the brands’ contribution mix—led by buprenorphine (Belbuca) at 58.26 million last quarter, with substantial support from tapentadol (Nucynta) and oxycodone ER (Xtampza ER)—reduces dependency on any single product event, a characteristic that analysts often cite when assigning higher confidence to estimates.
Third, the positive view emphasizes balance-sheet flexibility and business development potential as incremental levers for value creation. As Needham’s commentary indicates, flexibility to pursue acquisitions or in-licensing that complement the existing portfolio can expand the earnings base beyond internal growth, a factor that feeds into raised price targets and sustained Buy ratings. The market often rewards well-executed, accretive transactions that strengthen cash flow visibility; on the other hand, analysts will look for disciplined frameworks to ensure that any deployment aligns with long-term return thresholds. Fourth, upward revisions to price targets—such as Truist’s step-ups to $55 and then to $58—signal increasing conviction that the current earnings and cash flow trajectory can be maintained or improved in the near term, even as consensus already builds in robust year-over-year growth for EPS and EBIT.
In evaluating the quarter, analysts also acknowledge the importance of sustained operating leverage. With EBIT estimated to reach 104.62 million, up 131.20% year over year, the implied margin expansion relies on continued cost control and mix stability. Should reported results corroborate this degree of leverage, it would strengthen the argument that earnings quality is improving, a point that often justifies multiple expansion. Conversely, if leverage is less pronounced—due to either higher-than-expected operating expenses or shifts in product mix—analysts might temper outer-year projections; for now, however, the predominant view is that the company is tracking toward the scenario embedded in current estimates.
Finally, consensus sensitivity revolves around the translation of top-line stability into sustained EPS outperformance. Even with a slight sequential dip implied for revenue versus last quarter, the Street expects EPS to rise modestly quarter over quarter while climbing sharply year over year. The bullish perspective argues that the portfolio’s composition and expense management make that outcome achievable, and the successive price-target increases throughout January and February reflect that view. Overall, recent commentary from Truist Securities and Needham & Company suggests that Collegium Pharmaceutical remains on a constructive path into February 26, 2026, with investors focused on confirmation of the revenue and EPS estimates, signals of continued cost discipline, and any incremental clarity around business development priorities that could extend the growth runway.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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