Data collected over the past 24 hours for the "Liquor Price Index" indicates that the average terminal retail prices of ten major Chinese baijiu products displayed a pattern of divergent adjustment on February 24. If one bottle of each of the ten major products were bundled and sold together, the total price today would be 9,258 yuan, a decrease of 2 yuan compared to the previous day. After a period of high-level operation, the overall price experienced a minor adjustment, with the market continuing to be characterized by fluctuating divergence among individual products. Among the ten major products, six saw price increases while four decreased. Among the gainers, Fine Moutai led the rise, increasing by 8 yuan per bottle compared to the previous period, reclaiming the 2,400 yuan threshold, supported by a recovery in replenishment demand from some terminals; Xijiu Junpin rose by 4 yuan per bottle; Gujiao 1573 increased by 3 yuan per bottle; Wuliangye普五第八代, Fenjiu 20-Year Blue and White, and Jiannanchun Crystal all saw modest increases of 1 yuan per bottle. Among the decliners, Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ fell by 10 yuan per bottle, leading the adjustments and marking its fourth consecutive decline; Feitian Moutai and Gujing贡酒古20 both decreased by 4 yuan per bottle, showing slight loosening in channel quotations; Qinghualang saw a minor decline of 2 yuan per bottle. The daily data for the "Liquor Price Index" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions nationwide, including but not limited to designated distributors of liquor companies, independent distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw sample data consists of the actual final retail transaction prices processed at each point over the past 24 hours, striving to provide an objective, authentic, scientific, and fully traceable dataset on the market prices of renowned baijiu products for all sectors of society. Since the official iMoutai platform began selling Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle around New Year's Day and Fine Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle starting January 9, the gravitational influence of this new channel on the average terminal retail prices of these two products has gradually become apparent. The daily liquor prices released by the "Liquor Price Index" follow a calculation rule weighted by actual transaction volume, and measurable prices from this platform are gradually being incorporated into the calculation of the terminal retail prices for Feitian Moutai and Fine Moutai. Regarding market analysis for the baijiu industry, since the beginning of 2026, foreign brokerages such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS have successively released outlook reports for the Chinese market. They generally believe that the baijiu industry is showing significant structural divergence amid weak Spring Festival consumption and channel inventory pressure. Analyzing by institution, Goldman Sachs views a bottoming-out recovery as more likely for the baijiu industry than a comprehensive reversal, with ultra-premium baijiu showing relatively stable performance during the Spring Festival. After inventory digestion is completed in the first quarter, banquet and business demand in the second half of the year are expected to drive sequential improvement. UBS points out that the industry is in a phase of "K-shaped recovery," where Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. has achieved sales recovery through channel and pricing strategies, but competition in the high-end baijiu segment is intensifying, and wholesale price trends remain a core variable. Morgan Stanley judges that channel inventory pressure for mainstream liquor companies is marginally easing, shipment rhythms are becoming more rational, and demand from banquet and catering channels will support sequential industry improvement. J.P. Morgan emphasizes that consumption during the Spring Festival showed a quality-oriented trend, with demand for high-end baijiu recovering in gifting and banquet scenarios. Citigroup believes that the stabilization of Feitian Moutai's wholesale price serves as an anchor for the industry's pricing system, helping to stabilize price expectations. Overall, foreign institutions generally agree that the baijiu industry's recovery exhibits a pattern of "high-end stabilization first, followed by tiered repair," with demand improvement in the second half of the year and price stability for leading brands remaining key observation points.
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