Goldman Sachs has released a research report indicating that XTEP INT'L's net profit for the second half of last year fell 3% below the firm's expectations, primarily due to weaker-than-anticipated sales of its core brand. Taking into account sluggish foot traffic in offline stores and a greater-than-expected impact on sales from the shift to direct operations, along with increased brand investment by XTEP, higher recognized employee share scheme expenses this year, and a rising tax rate, Goldman Sachs has lowered its net profit forecast for XTEP INT'L for 2026 and 2027 by 14% to 18%. The target price has been reduced from HK$6.6 to HK$5.7, while maintaining a corresponding 2026 forecast price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times. The 'Buy' rating is reaffirmed.
The group anticipates mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year revenue growth for 2026, with a net profit margin reaching a high-single-digit percentage. Regarding the XTEP brand, management expects positive year-on-year revenue growth, reflecting confidence in the expansion of the running category. However, accelerating the transition to direct offline operations—with plans to convert approximately 500 stores this year, compared to over 100 in the second half of last year—is expected to create short-term pressure on both sales and profit margins.
For the Saucony brand, the company remains optimistic about its development prospects, projecting revenue growth of 20% to 30% year-on-year for this year. This optimism is supported by enhancements in products, distribution channels, and brand image. Should the recovery of e-commerce channels outpace expectations, growth could exceed current projections.
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