Polysilicon futures in the domestic market experienced a strong surge on the afternoon of June 11th, with the main 2609 contract sharply rising and hitting the limit-up price in the final ten minutes before the close, settling at 37,710 yuan per ton.
Market sources indicate that recent measures to curb internal competition in the photovoltaic sector may be introduced, potentially including restrictions on module efficiency and energy consumption in polysilicon production, aiming to facilitate the exit of excess capacity.
The surge in polysilicon prices was preceded by signs, as the PS main contract had rallied 1,600 points yesterday, close to a 5% gain, just before the market closed. Concurrently, several photovoltaic stocks saw strong gains and hit limit-up prices yesterday.
The main polysilicon contract opened today at 36,200 yuan per ton, fluctuating throughout the session. It experienced a downward trend before the midday close but surged powerfully in the afternoon, repeatedly testing the 37,000 yuan per ton level.
It ultimately closed at the limit-up price of 37,710 yuan per ton. The day's low was 35,550 yuan per ton, and the high was 37,710 yuan per ton, with a net change of 2,160 yuan, representing a gain of 8.99%. Trading volume reached 223,900 contracts.
In response to the unusual price movement in the futures market, inquiries were made to several polysilicon producers. The contacted companies uniformly stated they were unaware of specific reasons and had not observed any positive changes on the industrial side recently.
A representative from a leading company analyzed that the price volatility might be related to expectations regarding the implementation of energy consumption controls. A futures analyst noted that the current price changes are primarily driven by news-related disturbances, with limited substantial changes reported from the industry.
The analyst added that polysilicon futures valuations were already at a bottom, making a rebound inherently likely, and such moves can be amplified by market rumors. The analyst also emphasized that the current price action should not be considered a "reversal" but rather a short-term rebound, likely driven by selling pressure into the rally for hedging purposes.
If no relevant policies materialize, the probability of further declines remains high. However, the market largely agrees on a bottom level, with the historical low around 30,000 yuan per ton. The current level near 35,000 yuan per ton represents strong cash cost support, making further declines increasingly difficult.
Polysilicon is positioned at the most upstream end of the photovoltaic silicon industry chain and is a core segment in efforts to reduce internal competition within the sector. A draft standard released for public comment last September, titled "Energy Consumption Quota per Unit Product of Silicon Polysilicon and Germanium," sets mandatory national standards.
It defines three tiers of energy consumption limits for polysilicon production: ≤5 kgce/kg (first tier), 5.5 kgce/kg (second tier), and 6.4 kgce/kg (third tier), corresponding to approximately 40.7 kWh/kg-Si, 48.8 kWh/kg-Si, and 52.1 kWh/kg-Si for the trichlorosilane method, respectively.
According to these standard requirements, existing production capacity would need to be reduced by approximately 30%. Industry insiders estimate that from the draft stage to formal implementation, it would take at least a year, with actual enforcement likely by the end of 2026.
However, multiple industry sources have indicated that a 30% reduction may still be insufficient for the polysilicon segment. In fact, the overall operating rate for polysilicon is already at a low level of around 40%, with the idled capacity primarily consisting of older, less efficient production lines.
Clearing capacity that is already idle or ineffective would have little substantive impact on the supply within the polysilicon segment. Zhengxin Futures pointed out that considering the current industry's average full cost is between 39,000 and 40,000 yuan, and the average cash cost is between 35,000 and 36,000 yuan, prices are prone to rebound on news or sentiment once they approach the cost line.
If subsequent information confirms the news, the market may experience a rebound driven by expectations. If the news is disproven, hedging opportunities may arise above the full cost line. An industry chain participant stated that if there is any positive news for the polysilicon sector, it still hinges on leading companies managing production and operations effectively—halting or reducing output when inventories are high and refusing to sell below cost.
Major industry leaders have generally reported losses for two consecutive years, with significant amounts. This year, the industry faces a critical situation, and it is unlikely any company can sustain substantial losses. During the recent SNEC exhibition, Lan Tianshi, Co-CEO of GCL TECH (03800), stated that the most difficult period for polysilicon has passed, with March to May of this year representing the bottom of the cycle.
Regarding how to restore the industry to reasonable profitability, he suggested referencing the regulatory logic of industries like electrolytic aluminum and coal—raising thresholds for safety, environmental protection, and energy consumption to eliminate outdated capacity and repair the industry's supply-demand balance.
Key Related Stocks
GCL TECH (03800): For the year ended December 31, 2025, the group reported revenue of 14.425 billion yuan. In the photovoltaic silicon materials field, the company's high-purity, low-carbon granular silicon technology, which it led in developing, has achieved further quality improvements.
Products with total metal impurity content of five elements ≤0.5 ppbw now account for over 95%, perfectly meeting the demands of N-type high-efficiency photovoltaic cells. The company obtained a Life Cycle Assessment verification statement from the international authority BSI, with its granular silicon product's "cradle-to-gate" carbon footprint being only 14.2756 kg CO2 e/kg, setting a new record for low-carbon production in silicon-based materials.
Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH): The absolute global leader in polysilicon materials, with an annual high-purity polysilicon capacity of approximately 900,000 tons. Its domestic market share exceeded 30% in 2025, and its sales volume has ranked first globally for six consecutive years. The company has also completed a vertically integrated layout in solar cell and module segments.
XINTE ENERGY (01799): A controlled subsidiary of TBEA Co., Ltd., primarily engaged in the R&D and production of high-purity polysilicon, and also involved in the construction and operation of wind and photovoltaic power stations. Its 2025 revenue was approximately 15.25 billion yuan, with production capacity ranking among the top domestically. The company is currently advancing production line technical upgrades to reduce costs.
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