On the afternoon of February 25, a rumor suddenly circulated in the market claiming that the ex-factory price of 53-degree Flying Moutai would increase from 1,169 yuan per bottle to 1,299 yuan per bottle. As a strategic product for Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. and even the entire baijiu industry, news of a potential price hike quickly sparked widespread discussion and market attention. In response, Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. explicitly stated that this was "false information," clarifying that any price adjustment constitutes a major event requiring public disclosure. Should there be any relevant plans, the company will issue an official announcement through authorized channels.
This type of "price increase" rumor is not the first occurrence. In September last year, the market also spread news that the suggested retail price of Flying Moutai would rise from 1,499 yuan to 1,699 yuan, an increase of 200 yuan per bottle, to which Moutai promptly responded that the "information was inaccurate." Looking back at the price history of Flying Moutai, the last adjustment to its suggested retail price dates back eight years to 2018, when the price per bottle was raised from 1,299 yuan to 1,499 yuan. The change in the ex-factory price occurred in November 2023, increasing from 969 yuan per bottle to 1,169 yuan. Both of these key price points have remained unchanged since.
The emergence of such rumors is closely related to frequent fluctuations in Moutai's market price, significant corporate adjustments, and the intensifying cyclical nature of the baijiu industry. Earlier this year, Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. implemented important adjustments across multiple dimensions including channels, products, and pricing. The company not only unusually reduced the ex-factory/contract prices for several non-Flying Moutai products (including Premium Moutai and 15-Year Aged Moutai), but also defined its pricing policy as "market-driven and flexibly adjustable," retaining the possibility of dynamic price adjustments. This has created opportunities for rumors to arise.
According to data from the third-party agency "Today's Liquor Price" on February 25, the wholesale price of Flying Moutai (single bottle) was reported at 1,650 yuan per bottle, almost unchanged from pre-Spring Festival levels. In contrast, the Year of the Horse Zodiac Moutai experienced a sharp decline, with the latest single bottle price quoted at 2,070 yuan, a drop of nearly 25% compared to the 2,750 yuan level at the end of January.
So far, several securities firms have released research reports on baijiu sales during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, noting that overall industry sales decreased by 10% to 15% year-on-year, meeting expectations. The decline was narrower compared to the Mid-Autumn Festival last year, indicating signs of stabilization and a potential bottoming out for the industry, with optimism for a subsequent recovery. Performance across different baijiu price segments showed increasing divergence.
The "longest Spring Festival holiday in history" stimulated banquet scenarios, where premium baijiu like Moutai and Wuliangye demonstrated significant resilience. A Goldman Sachs research report stated that during the Spring Festival period, retail sales of "Moutai and Wuliangye" achieved double-digit growth. In mass consumption scenarios such as family and friend gatherings, sales of mid-to-low-priced baijiu in the 100-300 yuan range even outperformed premium baijiu. However, the sub-premium segment, caught in the middle, faced pressure from both sides.
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