Goldman Sachs stated that SanDisk's performance not only cleared the market's high bar but comprehensively crushed expectations. Its Q4 revenue of $3.03 billion, gross margin of 51.1%, and EPS of $6.20 all significantly exceeded Wall Street consensus. Even more astonishing was the Q1 guidance: revenue expectations were 53% above market forecasts, and the EPS guidance was 2.4 times the market's expectation. This indicates the NAND storage industry is experiencing an unexpectedly strong boom cycle, which will have a positive ripple effect on peer companies like Micron Technology. Goldman Sachs advised not to be blinded by prior concerns—SanDisk didn't just meet the high market expectations; it utterly demolished them.
On January 30, according to information, Goldman Sachs noted in its latest research report that despite SanDisk's stock having already experienced a significant rally recently, driven by Nvidia's storage controller announcement, tight industry supply-demand dynamics, and strong price expectations—which had set an extremely high bar for this earnings report—the company's delivered results were still staggering. Goldman Sachs believes that the data, for both the just-concluded fourth quarter and the guidance for the upcoming quarter, is not merely "better than expected" but far exceeds Wall Street consensus.
Goldman Sachs analysts indicated that SanDisk's Q4 revenue reached $3.03 billion, surpassing both Goldman's and the market's consensus expectations; even more remarkable was the gross margin hitting 51.1%, vastly exceeding Goldman's forecast of 43.0% and the market's expectation of 42.3%. The report stated that although Goldman Sachs maintains a $320 price target and a Buy rating, the current stock price is near $540, approximately 40% above the target price, indicating that the market's pricing of the tight supply-demand situation in the NAND storage industry is already very aggressive.
Goldman Sachs stated, however, that the company's Q1 guidance is even more astonishing—projecting a revenue midpoint of $4.6 billion, which is 53.3% above market expectations, a gross margin guidance of 66.0%, and an EPS guidance midpoint of $13.00, nearly 2.4 times the market's expectation. Goldman Sachs believes these figures suggest the NAND storage industry may be undergoing a stronger-than-expected boom cycle, which could have a positive spillover effect on peer companies like Micron Technology.
Q4 Actuals: Not Just a Beat, but a Crushing Blow The report stated that the market had expected SanDisk to deliver solid results, but the actual figures showed that Wall Street's analytical models had completely underestimated the company's profitability. Revenue: SanDisk reported revenue of $3.03 billion. In comparison, Goldman Sachs had previously forecast $2.70 billion, while Wall Street consensus predicted only $2.69 billion. Gross Margin: This was one of the most surprising aspects. The actual gross margin surged to 51.1%, far outstripping Goldman's forecast of 43.0% and the Wall Street expectation of 42.3%. EPS: The final Non-GAAP EPS was $6.20. This number didn't just beat expectations; it practically mocked them—Goldman had predicted $3.66, and Wall Street expected $3.55. The actual result was almost double market expectations.
Q1 Guidance: Disruptive Growth Expectations Goldman Sachs said that if the Q4 results are "history," then the company's Q1 guidance directly ignited investor sentiment. Management's outlook indicates that the tightness in NAND supply and pricing power are translating into massive profits. Revenue Guidance: The company expects Q1 revenue with a midpoint of $4.60 billion. Goldman had previously forecast only $2.62 billion, while Wall Street expected $3.00 billion; the guidance is over 50% above market consensus. Gross Margin Guidance: Expected to climb further to 66.0%. Goldman had forecast 44.0%, and Wall Street expected 47.2%. This signals exceptionally strong pricing power. EPS Guidance: The company provided a range of $12.00 to $14.00, with a midpoint of $13.00. Goldman had previously forecast only $3.48, and Wall Street expected $5.42. The guidance midpoint is 140% above the Wall Street expectation and 273% above Goldman's own forecast.
Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that the significant elevation in investor expectations stems mainly from the recent stock price surge, tight industry supply-demand conditions, and Nvidia's actions in the storage sector. The firm explicitly stated that it expects Micron Technology to see a positive reaction due to similar end-market exposure. As a major supplier of NAND and DRAM memory chips, Micron operates in a similar industry supply-demand environment. SanDisk's outperformance may signal that the entire memory chip industry is in the midst of a powerful upcycle.
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