Three vessels registered in Oman appear to have bypassed the northern route controlled by Iran, opting instead for the "southern route" through the Strait of Hormuz. This marks the largest single-day outflow of crude oil since the outbreak of the Iran conflict and the first attempt by an LNG carrier to exit the Gulf. However, the situation remains far from calm.
According to reports on April 2, three vessels broadcasting Omani registration—two supertankers and one LNG carrier—were observed sailing along the Omani coastline, entering the strait via the southern channel. This route notably deviates from the northern passage, which has been used by most vessels recently and traverses the waters between Iran's Larak and Qeshm islands.
All three vessels are operated by Oman Ship Management Company and are among the largest classes of tankers. Should the LNG carrier successfully transit, it would be the first liquefied natural gas vessel to exit the Persian Gulf since the conflict began.
**4 Million Barrels: Largest Daily Outflow Yet Still a Fraction of Pre-War Levels** Energy and commodities journalist Javier Blas noted on social media platform X that indications suggest at least 4 million barrels of crude oil flowed out of the Strait of Hormuz today, representing the largest single-day volume since the start of the Third Gulf War. However, he emphasized that this amount is only a fraction of the pre-war daily average of 20 million barrels.
Each of the two tankers carried approximately 2 million barrels of crude. One vessel loaded its cargo in Saudi Arabia in late February, with its destination listed as Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar, which is connected to an oil pipeline leading to western China. The other tanker carried Abu Dhabi crude, though its destination was not disclosed. Tracking data indicated the LNG carrier was in ballast, or empty.
All three vessels ceased transmitting automatic identification signals around 9:30 AM London time as they approached or rounded the tip of Oman's Musandam Peninsula. Analysts note that due to significant signal interference and spoofing in the area, it is uncertain whether the transit has been completed, though a normal passage typically takes several hours.
**Southern Route vs. Northern Route: Bypassing Iran via Deeper Waters** The significance of the "southern route" lies in its avoidance of the northern channel, which is effectively controlled by Iran. The northern passage, which runs between Iranian islands, features shallower waters and sharper turns, making it potentially unsuitable for fully-loaded supertankers and LNG carriers under normal circumstances.
Reports indicate that the Strait of Hormuz has been largely blockaded since the conflict erupted, with Iran previously permitting only a limited number of vessels linked to "friendly nations" to transit, and only via the northern route. The choice of the southern route by these three vessels introduces a noteworthy new variable.
Previous reports had mentioned that as conditions deteriorated along the main Hormuz shipping lane, tankers had begun diverting in large numbers to the northern route near Iran's Larak Island to secure safe passage. Larak Island's location within Iranian-controlled waters near the strait allows Iran to exercise de facto control over vessels using this alternate route. Some shipping companies have reportedly accepted the transit arrangements set by Iran in practice.
**Iran and Oman Draft "Joint Management Agreement," Consider Transit Fees** Simultaneously, new diplomatic developments have emerged. According to Iranian official media, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Iran is drafting an agreement with Oman to monitor navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. He emphasized that vessel transit should occur under the joint supervision and coordination of Iran and Oman, clarifying that these arrangements are not intended as restrictions but rather to facilitate and ensure safe navigation while providing better services to transiting vessels.
Separately, a UAE minister expressed willingness to participate in any measures ensuring safe navigation through the strait, describing it as a vital international passage governed by international law.
Furthermore, the Iranian deputy minister stated that Iran is studying the imposition of transit fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, noting that specific fee amounts are still under consideration and have not been finalized.
However, he also stressed, "We are in a state of war, and pre-war rules cannot be expected to apply. We are facing two aggressor nations and other countries supporting the aggression, so it is natural to impose restrictions and bans." Unconfirmed reports suggest Iran is attempting to establish a toll mechanism that could charge up to $2 million per transiting vessel.
Following these statements, major U.S. stock indices briefly turned positive during the trading session, while the gains for Brent crude futures narrowed from approximately 8.5% pre-market to around 4.1%.
**Severe Spot-Futures Divergence: Market Torn Between "De-escalation" and "Scarcity"** A Goldman Sachs commodities expert analyzed that the energy market is experiencing a significant spot-futures divergence: futures markets are increasingly pricing in ceasefire expectations, while spot markets continue to reflect supply scarcity.
Key estimates include a net loss of 11.4 million barrels per day in global commercial crude inventories following policy responses but prior to supply-demand adjustments. Flow through the Strait of Hormuz has declined by 95% compared to normal levels. Since the conflict began, global visible crude inventories have fallen by a cumulative 130 million barrels, consuming 30% of the projected inventory build for the entire year 2025.
On the spot market, Dated Brent, a key benchmark for physical crude pricing, reached a high of $141.37 per barrel, its highest level since 2008. Conversely, Brent crude futures declined by approximately $2 per barrel. Goldman Sachs noted that professional physical market participants widely view current futures prices as undervalued relative to the scale of actual supply disruptions, believing that even without further escalation, the current supply-demand imbalance is sufficient to trigger acute tightness.
**Situation Continues to Escalate with Limited De-escalation Signals** It is important to note that these potential "de-escalation signs" occur against a backdrop of continued overall escalation. A recent speech reportedly included a declaration of intent to strike Iran "very violently" within the next two to three weeks, with no mention of a ceasefire.
Subsequently, Iran's largest bridge, a key connection between Tehran and Karaj, was destroyed. Reports identified the target as a major infrastructure project considered one of the world's most complex engineering achievements and a core part of the Tehran-Karaj transport corridor, which was slated to begin operations soon.
Following the attack, a social media post warned Iran to "make a deal now, while there is still time, while there is still something left of what could have been a great nation." Dated Brent prices climbed again to $141.37 per barrel after these statements.
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