“白马股”遭遇“定点爆破”，机构争议后市行情走向

经济观察报2022-09-23

“一天‘杀’一只白马，A股总能在意想不到的地方找到下跌空间。”9月22日收盘后，在一个股票投资者的交流群中，有投资者这样评论当日行情。而在当日，引发投资者无奈调侃的那只白马，是素有“中药茅”之称的片仔癀（600436.SH）。9月22日，在没有明显利空消息的情况下，片仔癀股价突然放量暴跌，当日盘中一度逼近跌停，创下了259.69元/股的年内新低，随后又有所回升，股价最终收报260.85元，成交额达...

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xiaochoochoo
2022-09-25
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2022-09-24
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2022-09-23
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Controversy","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f794074bf582fb1e252b1c585e855a","symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9},"content_text":"“一天‘杀’一只白马，A股总能在意想不到的地方找到下跌空间。”9月22日收盘后，在一个股票投资者的交流群中，有投资者这样评论当日行情。而在当日，引发投资者无奈调侃的那只白马，是素有“中药茅”之称的片仔癀（600436.SH）。9月22日，在没有明显利空消息的情况下，片仔癀股价突然放量暴跌，当日盘中一度逼近跌停，创下了259.69元/股的年内新低，随后又有所回升，股价最终收报260.85元，成交额达15.85亿元，收盘跌幅高达7.2%。经济观察网记者注意到，这是中秋假期以来，继药明康德（603259.SH）、阳光电源（300274.SZ）、东方财富（300059.SZ）等千亿老牌白马股之后，第10只发生放量闪崩的权重股。在和多位股票投资者沟通的过程中，记者发现，相比起近期市场整体的持续调整，如同“开盲盒”一般不停闪崩的白马股，是当前最令股民迷惑的市场现象。“已经跌了小一年了，（片仔癀）按理说应该已经跌到底了，为什么还能闪崩？”有股民发出如此疑问。“白马诅咒”在股票市场中，白马股不停闪崩的现象被称之为“白马诅咒”，往往成为市场情绪极度低迷的真实写照。据经济观察网记者统计，自9月中秋假期过后，市场先后有10只大市值权重股出现了破位暴跌的走势，而在其中，医药板块成了此轮杀跌的“重灾区”。9月13日，中秋假期过后的第一个交易日，CXO板块龙头药明康德盘中跌停，当日收报76.35元/股（本文股价均以前复权价格计算），成交额达57.8亿元，公司市值蒸发逾250亿元。随后，在9月14日至9月22日的7个交易日中，药明康德又有5天股价收阴，失守70元整数关口，如今仍围绕68元左右横盘震荡，而这一价格相较于去年7月16日该公司所触及的171.97元/股的盘中高点，已然“腰斩”。短短三个交易日之后，9月19日本周一，“医美双龙”爱美客（300896.SZ）、华熙生物（699363.SH）也均出现放量暴跌，其中华熙生物当日跌幅达13.68%，股价收报121.05元/股，直接击穿120日均线；爱美客则收跌11.6%，成交额达18.58亿元，当日市值蒸发约136亿元。9月21日周二，深受机构喜爱的“医械茅”迈瑞医疗（300760.SZ）也出现股价跳水，截至当日收盘下跌7.21%，股价收报264元/股，成交额达27.12亿元，这一价格相较于去年7月1日490.24元的高点已跌去44.36%，总市值缩水近2700亿元。9月22日，市场的“盲盒”开到了“中药茅”片仔癀的身上，该公司当日股价收跌7.2%，报260.85元/股，当日市场骤减122.05亿元，股价创下自2021年12月14日以来的新低。除此以外，诸如东方财富、三安光电（600703.SH）、阳光电源（300274.SZ）等千亿大白马也均在过去的7个交易日中，出现了破位暴跌的走势。其中，9月15日，阳光电源股价下挫8.49%，当日总市值蒸发近150亿元，东方财富在9月16日大跌10.78%，单日市值缩水328亿元，三安光电则于9月20日大跌7.05%，击穿四条短期均线，若以9月15日23.98元/股的开盘价计算，三安光电总市值在6个交易日内已经蒸发266.88亿元。记者注意到，从消息面上看，除片仔癀外，上述出现放量大跌情形的白马股近期在市场上均有相关利空消息出现。例如，美国总统拜登于美东时间9月12日签署行政令，鼓励美国本土生物技术、生物制造和相关研发，此举被市场普遍认为是针对我国CXO、CRO领域的新举措，首先影响的便是板块龙头药明康德。而9月16日东方财富股价发生闪崩的背景，则是国务院办公厅于9月15日发布的《关于进一步优化营商环境降低市场主体制度性交易成本的意见》，其中明确，将着力规范金融服务收费，鼓励证券、基金、担保等机构进一步降低服务收费，推动金融基础设施合理降低交易、托管、登记、清算等费用。此外，在9月19日，还出现了诸如三安光电相关高管被带走调查，相关部门将对医美机构展开财务核查等市场传闻。此外，经济观察网记者亦注意到，自9月13日以来，接连出现闪崩情形的白马股也多为机构的长期重仓股。例如，根据上述各家公司的中报披露数据，最早开启此轮闪崩浪潮的药明康德，就有128家基金公司旗下管理的1603只产品扎堆持有6.71亿股，占流通股之比高达26.31%；“券茅”东方财富的基金持股数则达到了25.51亿股，占流通股之比达23%，参与持股的基金产品数超过1700只；在22日闪崩的片仔癀，则是中欧明星基金经理葛兰的心头好，其位列葛兰代表产品中欧医疗健康的第七大重仓股，持仓数量高达821.51万股。接连闪崩的白马股，也让本就不理想的公募业绩雪上加霜。Wind统计数据显示，截至9月23日，全市场835只普通股票型基金，近一月平均业绩回报为-17.1%，部分基金的动态回撤甚至超过了40%。“外围压力”催动“资金踩踏”？在针对“白马诅咒”的情况走访投资机构的过程中，记者发现，受访机构普遍认为，近期市场调整主要压力主要在于外部因素，同各类市场传闻的关联则有限。华夏基金方面就告诉记者，虽然近期A股市场负面情绪扰动较多，但调整压力主要来自外部风险。在美联储货币政策加速收紧背景下，美元加息超预期，全球流动性总量收缩，导致风险资产剧烈波动，人民币汇率贬值压力加大；此外，加之部分传闻引发市场担忧，在内部经济复苏尚不稳固的情况下，投资者信心不足，导致股指出现惯性大跌。星石投资首席权益投资官郭希淳向记者表示，近期美联储紧缩和美国经济的走势将是未来对资产价格持续影响的重要因素。他指出，对于国内市场而言，国内经济基本面及经济预期是核心因素，但也需要关注海外市场波动带来的情绪传导。“目前国内股市维持缩量特征，市场情绪偏弱但并未出现进一步下行，美联储加息落地后对国内股市的实际影响将低于海外市场。今年以来，中美货币政策持续背离，我们认为近期人民币贬值也并不会影响国内流动性维持宽松的情况，叠加目前A股整体估值并不算高，A股受到的估值端压力明显小于美股。”郭希淳说。广州一家私募的投资经理刘禾则向记者指出，眼下市场存在的一些解读，将出现闪崩情形的白马股归结于对应的市场传闻所引发，但在他看来，这样的解读无异于“拿着答案找问题”。“传闻本来就是市场的过度解读，比如9月12日引发CXO动荡的那则‘美国禁令’，主要内容以鼓励医药制品的境内生产为主，但是并没有明确细针对国内的CXO产业的细则，结果传闻最后发酵成了CXO禁令。”刘禾说。在刘禾看来，上述传闻实际上不足以引发市场的大幅动荡。“发生闪崩的白马股都具有明显放量的特征，应当是机构资金出逃所致。”他指出。记者查阅市场数据发现，9月13日，即药明康德大跌当日，其龙虎榜数据显示，在卖出药明康德金额最大的前五名中，就有2家机构专用席位，各自卖出1.39亿元及2.45亿元。9月20日，三安光电龙虎榜中，卖方中有4家机构席位，合计卖出近7亿元。对于为何会出现机构齐齐抛售的情形，刘禾认为是估值回归的体现。“公司还是哪些公司，现在市场情绪导致估值有所不同，加之近来市场资金略有收紧，美联储激进升息，外资连续流出，自然要从暂无炒作热点的老白马中撤出资金。”刘禾表示。沪上一家公募的基金经理也告诉记者，此次闪崩的一系列白马股，自4月以来并未经历反弹行情，且部分公司的业绩增速放缓，出现了成长性与估值错配的情形。“就是因为这些白马一直在回调，回调太多了，到了某一个点位突然引发市场情绪的崩塌，资金开始踩踏出逃，而对于4月后，出现反弹的热门股，如今就算面临回调也仍有获利在手，当基金经理面临赎回压力时，便会考虑弃车保帅。”上述人士进一步补充。金信基金的基金经理黄飙也认为，近来市场行情变化，主要受外围市场风险传导影响，进而加剧了市场担忧。黄飙告诉记者，此次市场调整是经济底部阶段的一次风险集中释放，属于短期调整范畴，不必过于恐慌，新兴成长产业的景气度以及整体经济的中长期内生增长动力依然稳固，泛科技相关赛道细分龙头公司具有显著的壁垒和长期抗风险能力，技术创新和业绩增长将会是穿越周期的最持久的推动力。“科技创新与能源转型相关成长赛道景气依然较高，龙头公司的业绩增长确定性强，尽管估值溢价受到国内及外围宏观风险会有所波动，但这些赛道依然是市场主流资金的中长期投资方向，坚实的业绩将推动整体股价波动上行；此外，从经济前景看，目前国内经济增速在U型底部徘徊，通胀压力缓和，货币流动性非常充裕，利率处于低位，有利于市场估值维持在中性以上水平。”黄飙进一步补充称。展望后市，长城基金方面则直言，预计十一国庆长假前，行情将维持“鸡肋”状态，长假过后，随着“二十大”的召开，对于各项工作做出指导，市场交投情绪将有望逐渐回暖。“当前阶段比较复杂频繁的环境变化，对于市场来说挑战和机遇并存，逆全球化、内循环以及各类安全主题有可能会成为具有中期持续性的题材；就国内环境而言，经济的复苏仍然是大方向，十月中旬后稳增长和疫后复苏题材可能会呈现比较好的弹性。”长城基金如是称。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9911983081,"gmtCreate":1664114589143,"gmtModify":1676537392270,"author":{"id":"4095548256553960","authorId":"4095548256553960","name":"xiaochoochoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa4c71aeb75832cfccf0bf892d1f6ec","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4095548256553960","idStr":"4095548256553960"},"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911983081","repostId":1101872550,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9913661031,"gmtCreate":1663981695823,"gmtModify":1676537373957,"author":{"id":"3582749181936620","authorId":"3582749181936620","name":"kim_8904","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a7b2ec68592f23ba2b7dd63757473e","vip":1,"hat":"htt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