The Israeli Defense Forces issued a statement on the 6th confirming an airstrike that day on a major petrochemical complex in the Asaluyeh region of southern Iran, which is Iran's largest such facility. The statement indicated that the military has now struck two major Iranian petrochemical complexes, severely damaging over 85% of Iran's petrochemical export capacity. It was stated that the targeted facilities in Asaluyeh contain critical infrastructure for producing materials used in explosives and ballistic missile propellants, serving as a key supply hub for Iran's missile industry. The Israeli military stated it will continue to intensify strikes on core infrastructure for Iranian weapons production, aiming to cause "widespread and sustained damage" to its military manufacturing capabilities.
During Tuesday's early Asia-Pacific trading session, WTI crude oil futures prices continued to rise, up 1.06% to $113.6 per barrel at the time of reporting.
Recently, due to escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, the international crude oil market is experiencing a rare divergence between futures and spot prices. The spot price for Brent crude has surged past $140 per barrel, reaching a new high since 2008. While futures prices have also followed an upward trend, the increase has lagged, resulting in a futures-spot spread widening to over $30 per barrel, an extreme historical level. Concurrently, although OPEC+ decided to continue with modest production increases at its April 5th meeting, this move is viewed by the market as "a drop in the bucket" given the current physical supply shortages.
The global crude oil market is undergoing a textbook stress test. The most notable current feature is the "futures-spot dislocation." Futures markets are pricing in potential future geopolitical de-escalation and demand contraction, while the spot market is paying a premium for immediate physical supply shortages. Obstructions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz have exponentially increased the difficulty of obtaining physical crude. This misalignment between "immediate supply tightness" and "speculation about the future" forms the core basis for the current market's high volatility.
From one perspective, the global crude oil supply system is facing a restructuring. The conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, superimposed on the Russia-Ukraine situation, is simultaneously impairing two major supply sources: the Middle East and Russia. This "multi-point collapse" represents a structural disruption to the global energy logistics network, and trade flows are undergoing irreversible changes.
Analyzing the transmission path of this round of geopolitical conflict on oil prices reveals three phases since February 28th. The first phase followed initial US/Israeli strikes, pushing Brent crude from $85 to $119 per barrel. The second phase, involving the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the onset of full-scale attritional warfare, saw prices climb again to $111 per barrel. The third phase, characterized by ceasefire expectations and negotiation periods, has featured prices retreating from highs with repeated fluctuations.
Looking ahead to April, international crude oil markets are expected to maintain a pattern of high volatility. The futures-spot spread is anticipated to gradually narrow to within $10 per barrel, although recurring geopolitical tensions could lead to renewed periodic market "dislocation." WTI crude prices are forecast to trade between $100 and $120 per barrel, while Brent crude is expected to range between $110 and $140 per barrel, with the market still facing intense volatility. From a supply perspective, daily crude supply losses in the Middle East were 14-15 million barrels per day in March; this daily supply shortfall is projected to narrow to 6-8 million barrels in April. However, with current inventory drawdown rates being rapid, if inventories hit warning levels by May, it could trigger a new round of market volatility.
In the face of this high-volatility, strongly speculative market environment, analysts emphasize the importance of strategic adjustments. Traditional one-directional thinking is no longer suitable. Physical enterprises should utilize tools like options to build non-linear protection mechanisms and strictly control inventory risks. Investors need to be wary of liquidity traps and seek arbitrage opportunities with higher certainty.
Strategically, the focus should be on geopolitical expectation gaps and changes in the crude inventory cycle, capturing opportunities like the relative strength of near-month contracts versus the weakness of far-month contracts (positive carry). Enterprises should replenish stocks in batches, avoid chasing prices higher, consider locking in long-term contracts, and allocate hedging assets like gold to mitigate oil price volatility risks. Overall, the core variables for the international crude market in April will be the progress of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, developments in substantive ceasefire negotiations among relevant parties, and the scale of strategic petroleum reserve releases by various nations.
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