In the first three quarters of 2026, 19 listed baijiu companies together generated operating revenue of 265.508 billion yuan, down 7.63% year on year, while attributable net profit reached 97.368 billion yuan, down 9.55% year on year.
Overall, the industry has entered a period of deep clearing, with "controlling volume and reducing inventory" becoming a key phrase in financial reports.
From the secondary market perspective, however, the baijiu index has shown signs of stabilizing since mid-July, and as of now it has risen about 20% from its bottom.
For the baijiu industry, market attention is focused on several aspects: after a round of clearing, whether the real "bottom" has been reached; how far channel clearing has progressed; and whether baijiu companies' shift from "channel stuffing" to "terminal consumption" can bring growth.
Q3 Baijiu Industry: Still Clearing, With Signs of Marginal Improvement in the Single Quarter
Judging from the third-quarter reports, the baijiu industry shows the following characteristics.
First, clearing is still continuing, but signs of marginal improvement have appeared. After the industry's accelerated decline in the second quarter, the decline narrowed in the third quarter. In the single third quarter, revenue reached 69.189 billion yuan, down 10.05% year on year, compared with a 17.11% decline in the second quarter; attributable net profit in the single third quarter was 24.268 billion yuan, down 12.98% year on year, compared with a 21.44% decline in the second quarter.
Second, revenue led profit, and net profit came under pressure due to factors such as rising expense ratios. In the first half, four companies achieved positive revenue growth, and in the third quarter the number expanded to seven. Only four baijiu companies achieved positive growth in attributable net profit, and their net profit declines were generally larger than their revenue declines.
Third, distributors' willingness to make payments has not yet recovered. In the first three quarters, total contract liabilities were 29.67 billion yuan, down nearly 25% year on year. It is worth noting that leading baijiu companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Distillery, and Yanghe ranked among the top in terms of contract liability declines, which is related to their "volume control" policies and channel reforms.
Fourth, divergence among baijiu companies has intensified, and tail-end baijiu companies are declining at a faster pace. In the first three quarters, four baijiu companies suffered losses, and in the third quarter the number reached eight, one more than in the same period last year.
Among the 19 Companies, Who Is Recovering and Who Is Clearing Out
Specifically, the 19 baijiu companies can be divided into several tiers.
Tier one: Kweichow Moutai, the most stable baijiu company in this round of adjustment. In 2025, revenue fell 1.2% and net profit fell 4.53%. In the third quarter of this year, both revenue and net profit growth turned positive, with third-quarter revenue and net profit increasing 3% and 3.78%, respectively. In the first three quarters, the gross margin and net margin fell 1.71 percentage points and 1.14 percentage points, respectively, mainly due to an increased share of lower-margin series liquor and a decreased share of higher-margin non-standard Moutai. It is worth noting that in the first three quarters, Kweichow Moutai's contract liabilities dropped sharply by 73% to 2.084 billion yuan, mainly due to a significant increase in the proportion of direct sales. In the first three quarters, the company's direct sales revenue accounted for 56.4% of main business revenue, up about 13 percentage points from the same period last year, while wholesale agency revenue fell by more than 20%.
Tier two: Jinshiyuan and Yingjia Distillery. Among them, Yingjia Distillery was the only baijiu company in the first three quarters to achieve positive growth in both revenue and attributable net profit, with revenue and net profit growth positive for three consecutive quarters. In the first three quarters, the gross margin rose 0.9 percentage points year on year, while the net margin fell 0.86 percentage points. Jinshiyuan continued 2025's decline in the first-quarter peak season, then continued to recover in this year's second and third quarters, achieving positive performance growth for two consecutive quarters, with net profit growth exceeding revenue growth. However, in the first three quarters, revenue still edged down 2.43% year on year and net profit fell 1.8%. Both the gross margin and net margin improved year on year, and contract liabilities in the first three quarters increased 59.28%, ranking first in the industry.
Tier three: baijiu companies whose revenue growth turned positive but whose profit was still declining: Gujing Distillery, Laobaigan Liquor, Swellfun, and Kouzijiao. Gujing Distillery achieved third-quarter operating revenue of 2.639 billion yuan, up 3.69% year on year, the first return to positive single-quarter revenue growth since the second quarter of 2025. But attributable net profit was only 95 million yuan, down sharply 68.04% year on year. The gross margin edged down 0.06 percentage points year on year, and expansion on the expense side directly squeezed profit space. During the period, the company's selling expense ratio rose 6.43 percentage points year on year to 33.88%, ranking second among the 19 listed baijiu companies. Laobaigan Liquor's third-quarter operating revenue rose 9.45% year on year, while attributable net profit fell 15.88% year on year. This was mainly because a sharp increase in expenses during the period dragged down net profit, with selling expenses up 29% and administrative expenses up nearly 15%, and the sharp rise in expense ratios reduced net profit. It is worth noting that in the first three quarters, Laobaigan Liquor's gross margin fell 2.81 percentage points, mainly because revenue from products priced above 100 yuan fell more than revenue from products priced at 100 yuan and below, reflecting a decline in product mix. Kouzijiao's third-quarter operating revenue was 663 million yuan, up 3.1% year on year, but attributable net profit was 19 million yuan, down 28.41% year on year. This was mainly affected by a shift down in product mix and rigid expense spending. It is worth noting that in the third quarter, high-end liquor resumed growth after earlier adjustments. In the first three quarters, the company's operating cash flow was still -206 million yuan and had not yet turned positive. Contract liabilities fell sharply 53.42% year on year, the second-largest decline. Swellfun's third-quarter operating revenue rose 2.69% year on year, the first return to positive since the second quarter of 2025. Attributable net profit was 220 million yuan, down slightly 0.09% year on year, also the first near-positive growth since the second quarter of 2025. It is worth noting that in the first three quarters of 2026, Swellfun's gross margin fell 2.1 percentage points.
Tier four: baijiu companies still clearing: Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, Shede Spirits, and Yilite. These are mainly leading baijiu companies. During the industry adjustment period, most leading baijiu companies actively "controlled volume" to push channel destocking, resulting in sharp performance declines. Shanxi Fenjiu achieved operating revenue of 28.382 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 13.80% year on year, and attributable net profit of 8.338 billion yuan, down 26.89% year on year. In the single third quarter, revenue fell 18.11% year on year and net profit fell 34.52% year on year, a relatively milder decline than other large baijiu companies. Contract liabilities fell only 2.91% year on year, also relatively stable among leading baijiu companies. Luzhou Laojiao's revenue and net profit fell 36.58% and 47.31%, respectively, in the first three quarters. In the single third quarter, it achieved operating revenue of 4.195 billion yuan, down 37.14% year on year, and attributable net profit of 1.332 billion yuan, down 57.03% year on year, with the sequential decline narrowing and net profit more than doubling from 631 million yuan in the second quarter. The gross margin fell 3.48 percentage points year on year, the net margin fell 7.67 percentage points year on year, and contract liabilities fell 39.64% year on year. Yanghe's revenue and net profit fell 34.65% and 53.94%, respectively, in the first three quarters. In the single third quarter, it achieved operating revenue of 1.281 billion yuan, down sharply 61.10% year on year; single-quarter net loss was 771 million yuan, further expanding from a loss of 369 million yuan in the same period of 2025. Shede Spirits' third-quarter operating revenue fell 19.18% year on year, but profitability recovered against the trend, with attributable net profit of 50 million yuan, up 72.47% year on year, successfully turning profitable in the single quarter. In the first three quarters, contract liabilities rose 6.17% year on year, making it one of three baijiu companies with positive contract liability growth. Yilite's first-three-quarter operating revenue fell 32.64% year on year, and attributable net profit fell 58.87% year on year; single third-quarter revenue fell 35.04% year on year, with a loss of 25.3983 million yuan. Net operating cash flow was -388 million yuan, and contract liabilities fell 21.28% year on year.
Tier five: baijiu companies that continued to lose money: Shunxin Agriculture, Tianyoutte Liquor, Jiugui Liquor, Jinzhongzi Liquor, and Huangtai Liquor. Shunxin Agriculture lost 195 million yuan in the first three quarters, down 352.78% year on year, including a single-quarter loss of 235 million yuan in the third quarter. The company focuses mainly on light-bottle liquor, with a comprehensive gross margin of only 30.43%, down 2.92 percentage points year on year. In addition to baijiu, the meat business also dragged down overall performance. Jiugui Liquor achieved a slight profit of 5.3 million yuan in the first three quarters, up 154.05% year on year, mainly relying on a low base to reduce losses, while the single third quarter still lost 7 million yuan. Jinzhongzi Liquor lost 99 million yuan in the first three quarters, with operating revenue down 50.19% year on year, the largest decline among the 19 listed baijiu companies. Tianyoutte Liquor lost 39 million yuan in the first three quarters, down 277.60% year on year. Huangtai Liquor's first-three-quarter operating revenue was only 72 million yuan, with a loss of 18 million yuan. Its selling expense ratio was as high as 40.96%, up 15.62 percentage points year on year, ranking first among the 19 baijiu companies.
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