Bitcoin (BTC) briefly touched a high of $83,009 during the trading session but failed to hold that level effectively, subsequently giving back most of its gains and settling at $82,202, recording a modest 0.38% gain over 24 hours with a total market capitalization maintained at $1.65 trillion.
Although Brent crude oil prices retreated from their highs, stock futures showed strong performance, and market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike were significantly lowered, with mainstream assets like Ethereum and Solana also rising in tandem, this combination of macro tailwinds did not directly translate into a Bitcoin price breakout. A clear disconnect remains between the positive trajectory of risk assets and actual price breakthroughs, and the current market pattern requires investors to remain cautious.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin prices retreated to near $80,000 over the weekend, but given the strong rebound momentum since August and the complex macro environment, this pullback was relatively mild. The maximum drawdown since the August rally has consistently remained within 9%, and on-chain data further reveals the complex dynamics within the market.
The dramatic reversal in Federal Reserve policy expectations is the core variable of recent market attention. Probability data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME.US) for the October 28 meeting shows that the likelihood of a Fed rate hike is only 14.9%, while 85.1% of market participants believe rates will remain between 375 and 400 basis points. This expectation has undergone a fundamental shift within just four weeks: one month ago on September 18, the market estimated the probability of a Fed rate hike at 57.6%, when the mainstream view favored policy tightening; however, this proportion dropped to 21% a week ago, further declined to 15.5% on Friday, and reached 14.9% today. This rapid switch from expected tightening to essentially ruling out the possibility of a rate hike should theoretically significantly ease macro pressure on assets that generate no yield and compete directly with cash. However, Bitcoin has continued to decline over the same four weeks, without the expected price repricing phenomenon occurring.
_Checkonchain noted on October 19, 2026, that despite the reduced pressure, market reaction has been delayed, suggesting the existence of other potential resistance factors that are obstructing the transmission mechanism of macro tailwinds.
Energy price fluctuations and the lagging nature of inflation data further explain the complexity of market reactions. Brent crude oil is currently priced at $109.94, down $1.83 or 1.64% on the day, and this decline directly contributed to the improvement in market sentiment that day. From a long-term trend perspective, crude oil prices were around $60 in early 2026 and have nearly doubled since then, with today's pullback leaving prices just two dollars away from the highest point in this rally. WTI crude followed a similar trajectory, settling at $98.01. Since energy costs affect producer prices first before being passed on to consumers, the actual September PPI (Producer Price Index) reading came in at 6.3%, higher than the expected 5.3%, indicating that inflationary pressures remain stubborn. The aforementioned adjustments to interest rate expectations were actually based on data collected when crude oil prices had not yet reached current levels, reflecting an obvious lag effect.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that trading volume surged 85.87% to $24.93 billion, while prices rose only 0.38%, meaning a massive amount of Bitcoin changed hands with almost no net price movement, demonstrating intense competition and deep disagreement between bulls and bears near key price levels. Future Bitcoin-to-dollar movements will be determined within the current range, and while the relationship between Fed rate hike expectations and Bitcoin prices is an important reference for macro analysis, it is insufficient on its own as a basis for judging the next move. Market participants need to watch for more fundamental developments, such as the 16-plus new cryptocurrencies set to launch on Binance in 2026 and the 15-plus notable cryptocurrencies upcoming on Coinbase (COIN.US), as these project dynamics may bring new liquidity opportunities.
Analyst Alex, who has over seven years of experience in digital assets and has focused on identifying emerging 'mainstream' trends and high-volatility market movements since entering the market in 2017, advises investors to follow 99Bitcoins on the X platform for the latest updates or subscribe to the YouTube channel for daily expert analysis reports to gain a more comprehensive market perspective and avoid misjudgments caused by relying on a single macro indicator.
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