On Monday, December 15, during the early Asian session, spot gold edged higher in narrow fluctuations, holding firmly above the $4,300 level and extending last week's upward trend. On Friday (December 12), gold performed strongly, with spot gold rising 0.48% to close near $4,300 per ounce, briefly touching a high of $4,353—its highest level since October 21, just shy of a record peak. However, the rally was short-lived as bearish pressure emerged late in the session, causing gold to plunge nearly $100. Despite this, strong buying interest resurfaced after the dip, leading to a sharp rebound, indicating continued bullish momentum. The question now is whether gold bulls can regain dominance.
Last week, gold exhibited a volatile but upward trajectory, starting with a slight dip on Monday but rallying for four consecutive days from Tuesday to Friday, ultimately closing the week in positive territory. Global financial and commodity markets were driven by five key themes: the Fed's policy pivot, a surge in precious metals, divergent central bank policies, geopolitical tensions, and technological disruptions. This week, markets face a critical test with a barrage of central bank decisions—BoE, ECB, and BoJ—alongside high-impact data releases like non-farm payrolls and CPI, injecting uncertainty into the dollar, gold, silver, and equities.
Geopolitical developments dominated headlines. On one hand, signs of easing emerged in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Ukrainian President Zelensky signaling willingness to drop NATO membership demands in favor of bilateral security guarantees, while U.S.-Ukraine talks continued. Conversely, tensions persisted in Southeast Asia as Thailand and Cambodia failed to reach a ceasefire, and a deadly shooting in Sydney's Jewish community, labeled a terrorist attack, claimed 16 lives. Additionally, the U.S. moved to lift Belarus potash sanctions, resolved a water dispute with Mexico, and escalated pressure on Venezuela, shifting from oil sanctions to threats of ground operations.
Technically, gold's daily chart shows it sustained gains above the moving average cluster, supported by a bullish alignment. While the breakout past the $4,280 resistance was somewhat unexpected, reflecting market exuberance, Friday's pullback raised concerns about the sustainability of the rally—possibly due to caution ahead of non-farm payrolls. This week's early performance is crucial. A continued rise above $4,300 could pave the way for a retest of the $4,380 high or even new records. Conversely, if bearish data triggers a correction, gold may consolidate, with key support at $4,290–$4,280.
On the hourly chart, Friday's sharp retreat to $4,260 followed by a rebound to $4,300 suggests initial resistance at $4,330—the breakdown point from Friday. A hold below this level may lead to consolidation ahead of Tuesday's non-farm payrolls, while a break higher could reignite bullish momentum, though overtrading risks remain. Thus, early-week trading may oscillate between $4,330 and $4,290 for consolidation.
For today, consider short-term range trading between $4,330 and $4,290 with strict stop-losses. Adjust strategies promptly if unexpected news emerges. Conservative traders may wait for non-farm payrolls to confirm market direction before entering positions.
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