During the Asian trading session on Thursday, January 15th, the latest international gold price was 1,030.14 yuan per gram, down 6.59 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.64%, showing a pattern of opening higher and then moving lower during the day. The day's opening price was reported at 1,036.52 yuan per gram, with an intraday high touching 1,037.79 yuan per gram and a low dipping to 1,027.03 yuan per gram.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently commented on the issue of Federal Reserve independence, stating that the Trump administration's actions against the Fed over the past year were "essentially about monetary policy." Following the Justice Department serving a grand jury subpoena to the Fed and initiating a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell, Kashkari publicly defended him, emphasizing that this event concerns the Fed's ability to set interest rates free from political interference.
Powell had previously released a video pushing back, accusing the administration of using the renovation costs of the Washington headquarters as a "pretext" to pressure for rate cuts. Kashkari believes this highlights an opportunity to explain to the public the importance of Fed independence for economic health. Trump's criticisms have not only been opposed by global policymakers but have also raised concerns among some Republican lawmakers and allies, who fear they could disrupt financial markets and complicate the process for Powell's potential reappointment.
Financial market reactions have been relatively calm, which Kashkari attributes to a bipartisan consensus among lawmakers supporting Fed independence from political intervention. He pointed out that recent signals from the Supreme Court indicate a different stance towards the Fed compared to other independent agencies. The Court is set to hear a case next Wednesday regarding Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook. A ruling in favor of Trump could undermine the cornerstone of Fed independence—the "for cause" removal principle stipulated by the Federal Reserve Act.
Regarding monetary policy, Kashkari stated that the current interest rate (3.5%-3.75%) is in a "very good" position, with no impetus for a rate cut in January, though there might be room later in the year, caution is still needed. He emphasized that while corporate hiring has slowed, there have been no large-scale layoffs, and the economy's resilience indicates that monetary policy is not overly restrictive. However, high inflation (significantly above the 2% target) and potential price increases from Trump's tariff policies are concerning, and inflation could remain above target for the next two to three years. He indicated he would adjust his strategy if the unemployment rate were to surge significantly (it was 4.4% in December) and inflation eased.
Addressing the internal policy divergence at the Fed (the 25-basis-point rate cut in December was opposed by three officials), Kashkari believes the credibility of the next Chair will depend on their ability to persuade within the Committee, needing to win votes through data and analysis rather than executive directive.
On shorter timeframes, the gold price exhibits a relatively clear characteristic of fluctuating within a 4600-4640 range. Within this range, the primary trading strategy should be to buy on dips in anticipation of a rebound, with a key focus on support levels around 4600.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, although the stochastic indicator shows钝化背离, releasing a bearish signal, the price action itself displays a typical pattern of sideways consolidation with strong resistance to declines. The Bollinger Bands (BOLL) indicator is oscillating upwards, and prices show significant resistance to falling, indicating that the current signals are not truly bearish but rather a consolidation phase buying time, after which a震荡上升 trend is expected.
On the daily K-line chart, the stochastic indicator暂时维持金叉状态. The small, choppy阴阳 candles following a large阳线 are characteristic of a continuation pattern within a broader回升 structure.
Immediate short-term support levels are first observed around the 4600-4610 area, followed by key support points at 4570, 4565, and 4550. The 4550 level, acting as a顶底转换 support, is particularly crucial as a demarcation point for trend strength and requires special attention.
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