Recent intense volatility in international gold prices has sent the domestic gold market on a roller-coaster ride. The spot price of London gold retreated more than a thousand dollars from its peak within a week, leading to a corresponding drop of approximately one hundred yuan per gram in the jewelry gold price at Shenzhen's Shuibei market. The combination of gold price fluctuations and the traditional Spring Festival peak season has attracted a massive influx of consumers. On-site observations reveal that the Shuibei market is experiencing robust activity in both gold buying and gold exchange, with consumer preferences shifting from the traditional hoarding of gold bars towards high-craftsmanship-fee, low-weight "sentimental gold" jewelry. Looking ahead, analysts suggest that while gold prices may consolidate at high levels in the short term, the fundamental case for allocation remains solid over the medium to long term, supported by factors such as structural depreciation of the US dollar, debt risks, and geopolitical tensions. The price of gold has seen significant volatility recently. After hitting a阶段性 high of $5,598 per ounce on January 29th, the spot price of London gold underwent substantial corrections on the following day and again on February 2nd, falling by 9.25% and 4.52% respectively, and briefly dipping to $4,402 per ounce; it then rebounded over 5% on February 3rd, climbing back near the $5,000 per ounce mark. The domestic gold market adjusted accordingly. The jewelry gold price in Shuibei had risen to 1,398 yuan per gram on January 29th, fell to a low of 1,223 yuan per gram on February 2nd, and recovered to 1,242 yuan per gram the next day. Overall, the current jewelry gold price has retreated by about 100 yuan per gram from last week's high. Amid the price retreat and the approaching Spring Festival, foot traffic in the Shuibei gold market has increased noticeably. On February 3rd, observations at a mall in Shenzhen's Shuibei district showed customers already inquiring about prices at some stalls by 10 a.m. on a weekday; after 12 p.m., mall traffic surged significantly. An online jewelry merchant from Shuibei disclosed that from January 31st to February 1st, customer flow surged, with sales volumes reaching twice that of a typical weekend. Due to price fluctuations exceeding expectations, spot inventory became temporarily tight. Over just the past weekend, their stall sold over 3 kilograms of gold. Another Shuibei merchant stated that February 1st marked a recent peak in customer traffic, with the market bustling with people. Some customers even traveled specially by high-speed rail from Hong Kong for a "shopping spree," alongside numerous tourists who altered their itineraries to purchase gold in Shuibei. Mr. Li from Jiangsu was one such customer who came specifically for a gold "shopping spree." Originally planning a trip to Hong Kong, he changed his plans upon noticing the gold price movement, diverting to Shuibei to select several gold jewelry items for his son, who is about to enter his zodiac birth year. In contrast, Ms. Wang from Shenzhen is a regular visitor to Shuibei. She mentioned that the price volatility did not affect her purchasing decision; instead, she used the market movement as an opportunity to browse for preferred styles, such as coiled bracelets, ancient-method rings, and necklaces for her children, focusing more on design than short-term price swings. However, some merchants noted that despite increased on-site foot traffic, some customers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook, anticipating further price corrections or waiting for clearer trends, leading to a phenomenon of "more browsing than buying." Not all visitors to the Shuibei market are there to buy gold. Amid the roller-coaster ride of sharp gold price increases and decreases, many are choosing to cash in their existing gold holdings. A gold retail merchant in Shuibei mentioned that the number of inquiries about gold recycling services has increased significantly recently. Their stall originally did not handle recycling or exchange business, but due to the current "favorable market conditions," they have partnered with relevant collaborators to offer recycling services. The merchant explained that compared to direct cashing out, more customers are bringing in old jewelry to exchange for new styles by paying the craftsmanship fee. "With the Spring Festival approaching, people naturally have spending intentions. Coupled with significant gold price volatility and an uncertain outlook, many customers prefer to exchange old for new," they elaborated. Unlike previous periods of rising gold prices where consumers directly hoarded gold bars, observations indicate that customer investment preferences in Shuibei are quietly changing. "Sentimental gold" jewelry characterized by high craftsmanship fees and low weight is becoming increasingly popular. Taking a recently popular gold mahjong set as an example, the full set sells for over 2,000 yuan, with the craftsmanship fee alone accounting for 680 yuan. Despite this, according to the merchant selling the product, orders from Sichuan, Hunan, and even overseas remain enthusiastic, with stock often nearly selling out before 11 a.m. Ms. Zhou from Bao'an, Shenzhen, visited Shuibei for the first time. She usually buys gold from shopping malls or banks, previously viewing Shuibei as a wholesale market not worth a special trip. "This time, I was mainly attracted by the significant price fluctuations, wanting to come browse and join the excitement, not specifically for the craftsmanship fee advantage here," she admitted. This trip focused on understanding new market products; if she finds a style she likes, she will buy it, and will not change her consumption habits based on the market's nature or price factors. Having experienced recent sharp fluctuations, how will gold prices perform going forward? Industry insiders believe that in the short term, gold prices may face pressure for a阶段性 adjustment. An analyst from联储证券 stated that since January, gold prices have consecutively broken through several key technical resistance levels, resulting in a relatively crowded long position trading structure. As the Fed Chair nominee is confirmed, the previous trading logic based on policy uncertainty is being realized, putting pressure on the precious metals market for concentrated profit-taking. It is expected that short-term price volatility will increase, entering a phase of high-level consolidation and technical correction. From a medium to long-term perspective, the industry largely believes the upward logic for gold remains unchanged, but advises caution regarding short-term volatility risks. An asset allocation strategist from the World Gold Council stated that over the medium to long term, gold's trajectory will still follow its own logic. The upcoming US Supreme Court ruling on tariff policy could significantly impact US trade policy. The effect on gold might be more subtle, but its potential supportive role persists. Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical conflicts provide support for gold and highlight its status as investors' preferred safe-haven asset. The联储证券 analyst highlighted two key points: First, the US dollar is in a structural depreciation cycle, with certain policies injecting significant policy uncertainty and risk premium into this cycle, expected to provide a more sustained and profound boost to gold compared to previous cycles, a trend unlikely to be reversed by Fed personnel changes. Second, US fiscal and debt risks continue to accumulate, with certain legislation expected to further increase the debt burden. This systematically reinforces gold's value as an asset alternative, inflation hedge, and safe-haven allocation from three dimensions: the marginal weakening of US Treasury credit, long-term inflation expectations fueled by fiscal deficit monetization, and rising sovereign credit concerns.
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