Copper: Overnight, copper prices both domestically and internationally showed a weak and volatile trend, with losses persisting on physical imports of refined copper in China. On the macro front, U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant indicated that even if Wash were to chair the Federal Reserve, quantitative tightening would not proceed rapidly, suggesting that under pressure from the Trump administration, the Fed's policy would remain cautious, prioritizing financial stability over premature tightening. This statement eased market concerns about Wash’s hawkish stance. Additionally, U.S. non-farm payroll data, set for release this Friday, may fall below expectations, as hinted by Hassett. On the demand side, downstream activity has slowed as companies wind down for the holiday, leading to an accumulation of social inventories. Copper price movements align with trends in overseas financial markets and precious metals, indicating that the current trading logic remains tied to financial attributes and market sentiment. Overall, the outlook remains cautiously bullish with a volatile bias. Strategically, buying on dips is recommended, but with the Spring Festival holiday approaching and geopolitical risks in overseas markets still elevated, light positioning is advised during the holiday period.
Nickel & Stainless Steel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.8% to $17,550 per ton, while SHFE nickel gained 1.88% to 136,500 yuan per ton. In terms of inventories, LME stocks increased by 678 tons to 285,750 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 318 tons to 52,039 tons. The LME 0-3 month spread remained in negative territory, and import nickel discounts held at 50 yuan per ton. On the news front, Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at the ESDM Ministry, revealed that approved nickel ore production quotas are between 260 million and 270 million tons, a significant reduction from last year’s RKAB target of 379 million tons. Fundamentally, nickel ore premiums have strengthened, and nickel pig iron prices remain high amid volatility. According to SMM data, nickel ore inventory indices for Indonesian pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical operations declined, mainly due to monitoring system delays and new project startups. Combined with expectations of tighter Indonesian quotas, concerns over resource supply constraints may persist, pushing up cost support levels. For stainless steel, weekly inventories have accumulated due to the Lunar New Year impact, although supply-side maintenance has been frequent. In the new energy sector, spot trading of nickel sulfate has been subdued due to the holiday, and ternary materials output is expected to weaken sequentially. While near-term demand has softened, cost support remains solid, providing strong price support. Given ongoing disruptions in Indonesian news flow, light long positions near cost levels may be considered. However, nickel prices currently lack the fundamental backing for an independent rally, so market sentiment and broader trends should be monitored closely.
Alumina, Primary Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy: Overnight, alumina prices weakened, with the AO2605 contract closing at 2,806 yuan per ton, down 1.54%, and open interest rising by 1,381 lots to 323,000 lots. Primary aluminum prices adjusted within a narrow range, with the AL2603 contract settling at 23,545 yuan per ton, while open interest fell by 2,532 lots to 182,000 lots. Aluminum alloy prices also softened, with the AD2604 contract closing at 22,135 yuan per ton, down 0.18%, and open interest increasing by 63 lots to 14,190 lots. On the physical side, SMM alumina prices retreated to 2,618 yuan per ton. Aluminum ingot spot discounts widened to 190 yuan per ton. Foshan A00 aluminum was quoted at 23,380 yuan per ton, at a 70-yuan premium to Wuxi A00. Aluminum billet processing fees held steady in Baotou, Henan, and Linyi, while fees in Xinjiang, Nanchang, Guangdong, and Wuxi rose by 20–40 yuan per ton. Aluminum rod processing fees for 1A60 and 6/8 series remained unchanged, though low-carbon aluminum rod fees dipped by 4 yuan per ton. Earlier gains in alumina futures were driven by rising overseas prices and pre-holiday raw material stockpiling by domestic smelters. However, mounting social inventories and pressure from expiring warehouse receipts have limited further upside. As the final pre-holiday week begins, downstream processors are winding down operations, keeping demand weak and accelerating inventory accumulation. Market risk premiums have receded, pulling aluminum prices and volatility lower. With U.S.-Iran tensions unresolved, related risk factors warrant caution.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: On the 10th, industrial silicon prices weakened, with the 2605 contract closing at 8,375 yuan per ton, down 1.53% on the day, and open interest rising by 8,477 lots to 303,000 lots. The Baichuan spot reference price held steady at 9,458 yuan per ton. The lowest deliverable grade price remained at 8,850 yuan per ton, with the spot premium widening to 475 yuan. Polysilicon prices also softened, with the 2605 contract settling at 48,950 yuan per ton, down 1.23%, and open interest increasing by 270 lots to 38,617 lots. Baichuan’s N-type polysilicon price stood at 53,650 yuan per ton, with the lowest deliverable grade at the same level and a spot premium of 4,700 yuan. Yunnan producers are completing final pre-holiday orders and will soon cut output, while Xinjiang continues to reduce production. Traders are actively selling, but downstream restocking is nearing its end, leaving little room for pre-holiday price increases. New orders in the polysilicon market have stalled, with wafer prices negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Aside from module traders cutting prices due to funding pressure, other segments have stabilized amid thin trading. With the market focused on capital repatriation ahead of the holiday, polysilicon futures remain weak, shifting attention to post-holiday sentiment and expectations.
Lithium Carbonate: Yesterday, the lithium carbonate 2605 futures contract rose 2.04% to 137,230 yuan per ton. Spot prices also firmed: battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 136,000 yuan per ton, up 500 yuan, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 500 yuan to 132,500 yuan per ton. Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particle) increased by 750 yuan to 133,750 yuan per ton. Warehouse receipt inventories climbed by 940 tons to 35,537 tons. On the supply side, weekly output fell by 825 tons to 20,744 tons. February production plans for battery-grade lithium carbonate dropped 17.6% month-on-month to 58,835 tons, while industrial-grade output fell 12.7% to 23,095 tons. Demand-side production plans for ternary materials in February declined 14.6% to 69,250 tons, and lithium iron phosphate output fell 10.7% to 354,000 tons. Social inventories of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, with downstream stocks rising by 3,058 tons to 43,657 tons, other segments falling by 4,430 tons to 43,450 tons, and upstream stocks down 647 tons to 18,356 tons. Recent spot trading volume was strong, mainly driven by downstream buyers, but with pre-holiday restocking largely complete and some strategic stockpiling already in place, further price strength may dampen actual procurement, weighing on prices. January shipment data from Chile showed a significant monthly increase, attributed to pre-holiday shipments, which is not sustainable. Substantial supply pressure may emerge after the holiday. Meanwhile, domestic production is expected to resume in March, shifting the pressure to demand. If demand only matches December levels, the market could shift from a February inventory drawdown of over 6,000 tons to a tight balance or slight accumulation in March. Nonetheless, continued post-holiday inventory declines would provide significant support. In the near term, prices are likely to fluctuate within a wide range.
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