Following the holiday period, domestic soybean prices have continued their upward trend. Taking the Northeast production region as an example, the loading price for low-protein tower grains has increased from 2.17 yuan per jin pre-holiday to 2.28 yuan per jin, while the price for 39.5% protein soybeans has risen from 2.25 yuan per jin to 2.35 yuan per jin. The simultaneous rise in both futures and spot prices is primarily due to very low remaining grain stocks among local farmers and increased procurement costs for midstream and downstream players. The key factors for a potential price inflection point later will be the resumption of state reserve auctions and an increase in soybean imports. Analysis suggests soybean prices still have room to rise in March, with a price turning point potentially emerging in early April.
The upward trend for domestic soybeans, ongoing since October 2025, continued into March 2026. Data shows the national monthly average soybean price on March 2 was 4,850 yuan per ton, up 1.36% from February's average of 4,785 yuan per ton. In the futures market, the Soybean No. 1 contract also advanced. Exchange data indicated that the A2605 contract closed at 4,708 yuan per ton on February 27, reaching a new annual high, while open interest hit a record high of 358,700 lots.
Focusing on the core Northeast market, loading prices for low-protein tower grains increased from 2.17 yuan per jin pre-holiday to 2.25 yuan per jin, and prices for 39.5% protein soybeans rose from 2.25 yuan per jin to 2.35 yuan per jin. Most current local soybean purchases are executed based on basis contracts. For instance, the purchase price basis for soybeans with over 39% protein at Northeast enterprises ranges from A05 minus 100 yuan per ton to A05 minus 150 yuan per ton. The referenced flat price is between 2.28 yuan per jin and 2.30 yuan per jin. The negative basis indicates futures prices are at a premium to spot prices, reflecting strong market confidence in future price increases. Regarding soybean auctions, 10,000 tons of new beans were auctioned on March 3 with a starting price of 4,340 yuan per ton and a final transaction price of 4,550 yuan per ton, which is largely consistent with current spot market prices, thus having a limited impact on the market.
The price increase is also accompanied by a structural shift: high-protein supplies are demonstrating stronger price performance compared to mid- and low-protein supplies. High-protein soybeans face tight availability and firm prices due to relatively inelastic demand from food processing and quality issues caused by persistent rainfall in Central China during the National Day holiday in 2025, which affected soybean quality. In the Heilongjiang production area, the current loading price for 42% protein soybeans is 2.45 yuan per jin. In the Northern Jiangsu high-protein market, Cuishan beans are priced at 3.45-3.50 yuan per jin, and Heiqiwang beans at 3.45 yuan per jin. As food processing plants in Northeast China and Shandong resume production and increase soybean procurement in March, prices for already tight high-protein soybeans are expected to remain strong.
Currently, farmer grain stocks in the Northeast production region are estimated at only 10-20%. Procurement costs and difficulties have increased alongside the market rally. With growing restocking demand from midstream and downstream sectors, a price inflection point is contingent on new supply-side additions. Market discussion currently centers on two factors: the potential restart of state reserve auctions, whose subsequent trading volume will be crucial for future market trends both as a policy signal and an actual supply source; and the onset of China's seasonal soybean import peak starting in April. Imports for April are projected to be around 12 million tons. However, significant new supplies for high-protein soybeans have not yet materialized, suggesting high-protein soybean prices may maintain a high premium.
In summary, the domestic soybean market has maintained its pre-holiday strength, with spot prices rising and high-protein supplies becoming particularly tight. Although there is much discussion about a price peak, judging from two critical influencing factors, new supplies may emerge for soybeans below 42% protein, but the high-protein market is unlikely to see significant new supply. Consequently, domestic soybean prices are expected to remain strong in March, with the price spread between high and low-protein beans unlikely to narrow. The anticipated window for a price inflection point is early April, with the national average price peak potentially occurring in late March, reaching between 4,950 yuan and 5,000 yuan per ton.
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