Abstract
ICICI Bank will release its quarterly results on January 17, 2026, before-market; this preview synthesizes recent financial metrics, company guidance, and institutional perspectives to contextualize expectations for earnings per share, margin trends, and segment performance.
Market Forecast
Based on the company’s indicated metrics and current market tracking, ICICI Bank’s adjusted earnings per share for the current quarter is forecast at USD 0.38, implying an estimated year-over-year growth of 3.09%. Forecast figures for revenue and gross profit margin are not formally disclosed; margin commentary points to a relatively steady net profit margin profile, supported by cost discipline and balance sheet stability.
The main business highlights center on retail and wholesale banking, where loan growth and fee income underpin revenue resilience while treasury operations provide counter-cyclical income stability. The most promising segment is Retail Banking, supported by continued loan origination and transaction-driven fees; revenue contributions in the last quarter were substantial, and the segment’s outlook suggests further incremental growth year-over-year.
Last Quarter Review
ICICI Bank posted a mixed previous quarter, reporting GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of USD 133.57 billion with a quarter-on-quarter change of -1.48%, a net profit margin of 25.10%, and adjusted earnings per share of USD 0.42; gross profit margin was not disclosed, and detailed year-over-year EPS change stood at -2.09%.
A key highlight was the consistency of core profitability, with the net profit margin remaining stable despite quarter-on-quarter pressure on headline net profit. Main business highlights included strong contributions from Retail Banking and Treasury, supported by sustained customer activity and disciplined risk management; inter-segment adjustments reduced the consolidated figure, reflecting internal allocations within the group.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Banking Franchise
ICICI Bank’s core retail and wholesale banking franchise is positioned to deliver moderate earnings per share growth this quarter. Loan demand in consumer and small-business segments typically provides a steady base of net interest income, complemented by fee-based services such as cards, payments, and wealth management. The bank’s operational efficiency and credit discipline support healthy pre-provision profitability, making EPS stability plausible even if macro conditions tighten slightly. Against this backdrop, management’s focus on risk-weighted asset optimization should help maintain a balanced net interest margin, while controlling credit costs remains essential for preserving net profit margin near recent levels.
Most Promising Growth Segment
Retail Banking remains the largest and most promising contributor, driven by diversified lending, deposit mobilization, and transactional fee streams. The segment’s revenue base benefited in the last quarter from robust consumer engagement, and the momentum is expected to carry forward, supporting a modest year-over-year uplift. Credit card and personal loan portfolios typically exhibit higher yields, which can enhance top-line generation when accompanied by stable asset quality trends. In parallel, digital adoption in payments and wealth channels expands fee revenue without proportionally increasing operating expenses, bolstering incremental margin leverage. Continued refinement of underwriting practices and analytics should mitigate credit risk, keeping the growth trajectory sustainable.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Earnings per share and net profit margin will be central to the stock’s reaction as investors gauge whether the bank can deliver growth while keeping credit costs contained. Any surprise in fee income or treasury gains could influence reported profitability, given their potential to offset fluctuations in net interest income. Asset quality metrics—non-performing loans and provisioning—will be closely watched; even small changes can meaningfully shift sentiment in financials. Additionally, capital and liquidity positions, including CET1 levels and funding mix, can affect valuation if they signal capacity for growth or highlight caution in lending expansion. The interplay of EPS delivery near the forecast and signals around future margin stability is likely to determine whether the shares respond favorably to the print.
Analyst Opinions
Institutional commentary skews bullish. Recent rating actions include Citi reiterating a Buy with an INR 1,700.00 target and Exane BNP Paribas reaffirming Buy with an INR 1,900.00 target; both emphasize sustained core profitability, retail-led growth, and disciplined risk management. The prevailing view suggests moderate EPS expansion this quarter, with the bank’s diversified income streams and prudent underwriting limiting downside risks from credit costs. Analysts highlight that consistent operating efficiency and fee momentum complement net interest income, making incremental earnings improvements achievable even without major margin expansion. The core thesis centers on stable asset quality, which supports the durability of earnings and justifies constructive sentiment heading into the release. The bullish ratio dominates over bearish takes in the collected period, pointing to expectations for a steady outcome and confidence in near-term execution across lending and fee businesses.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Comments