On May 6th, lithium carbonate prices approached the 200,000 yuan per ton threshold, reaching a new cyclical high and completely moving past the previous downturn. Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that a lack of greenfield investment projects in the short term indicates limited long-term supply elasticity for lithium. Therefore, the future direction of the lithium cycle will primarily depend on the strength of demand. For the lithium market to maintain an upward cycle from 2026 to 2027, both energy storage systems (ESS) and electric vehicles need to record substantial growth. Investment bank UBS has voiced its opinion, directly stating that "the lithium industry's upward cycle has returned," and significantly raised its target price for lithium carbonate to $41,875 per ton (approximately 298,000 yuan per ton), equivalent to forecasting a further surge of nearly 50%. Concurrently, May's lithium battery industry chain production scheduling data was unexpectedly revealed, showing all segments collectively exceeding expectations, creating strong resonance on both the supply and demand sides.
The lithium carbonate industry involves several Hong Kong-listed companies: Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696): Tianqi's core assets are in Australia (Greenbushes) and Chile (SQM), but the company possesses extremely strong global supply chain management capabilities. Tianqi Lithium stated in response to investor inquiries on an interactive platform that, as of the end of the first quarter of 2026, the company holds a total of approximately 21.90% equity in SQM. SQM holds the mining rights for the Atacama Salt Flat in Chile, which has the largest lithium brine reserves globally. Furthermore, through its controlling subsidiary TLEA (in which Tianqi holds 51% of the voting rights), the company controls Windfield and indirectly holds a 26.01% stake in it. Windfield's wholly-owned subsidiary, Talison, owns the mining rights to the Greenbushes spodumene mine, the world's largest producing lithium spodumene project.
Ganfeng Lithium Group Co.,Ltd. (01772): The company reported first-quarter revenue of 9.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 143.81%. Net cash flow from operating activities was 787 million yuan, indicating a healthy cash flow position. Regarding shareholder information, among the top ten shareholders, HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED holds a 23.04% stake, and Li Liangbin holds 18.06%. Institutions project that the company's attributable resource equity could reach 130,000-150,000 tons by 2026. This includes a capacity of 75,000 tons LCE after the Marion technical upgrade; production from the Cauchari-Olaroz salt lake is expected to be 34,100 tons in 2025, with a guidance of 35,000-40,000 tons for 2026, and a second phase of 45,000 tons is planned; the Mariana project is estimated by institutions to have a capacity of 17,000 tons; the Yiliping project has a capacity of 15,000 tons; the Goulamina project produced 337,000 tons of concentrate in 2025 with a built capacity of 506,000 tons, and is expected to reach full production in 2026. Additionally, institutions forecast attributable resource equity to reach 150,000-160,000 tons by 2027. Based on a lithium carbonate price of 150,000 yuan per ton in 2026, the profit contribution from the resource end is estimated to be around 9 billion yuan.
Zijin Mining Group Company Limited (02899): By 2025, Zijin Mining's lithium carbonate resources reached 18.7 million tons, ranking 10th globally in terms of lithium carbonate equivalent production. The latest plan shows that Zijin Mining aims for lithium carbonate equivalent production to reach 120,000 tons by 2026; this figure is projected to jump to 270,000-320,000 tons by 2028. Zijin Mining's lithium resources primarily come from four world-class core projects: the 3Q Salt Lake Lithium Project in Argentina, the Laguocuo Salt Lake Lithium Project in Tibet, the Xiangyuan Hard Rock Lithium Polymetallic Mine in Hunan, and the northeastern section of the Manono Lithium Project in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
LOPAL TECH (02465): The company has successfully acquired the exploration rights for the Marble Bar Lithium Project located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Through a strategic investment in the Australian-listed company GL1 (holding approximately 5%), LOPAL TECH has secured a stable supply for ten years from the flagship Manna Lithium Project. Starting from June 2028, for a period of ten years, the company will off-take 40% of the project's annual production, guaranteeing a supply of no less than 70,000 tons of spodumene concentrate annually.
CNGR (02579): CNGR has laid out lithium resource assets in Argentina, controlling lithium resources equivalent to over 10 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). The company has positioned itself in Argentina with two major salt lakes, Jama and Solaroz, located in the core area of the South American "Lithium Triangle." According to the plan, production is expected to commence gradually starting in 2028. In the long term, these lithium resources will be integrated into the company's global industrial chain to support its integrated development from "resources - smelting - materials - recycling".
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