Telecom analyst Roger Entner said that if SpaceX (SPCX.US) secures spectrum linked to Ligado and Viasat and wins licenses in the FCC's proposed auction, Starlink could control a "massive" block of mid-band spectrum. That assessment has put AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)'s spectrum strategy back under scrutiny. ASTS closed up nearly 1% at $51.46 on Monday, stabilizing slightly after a cumulative 16% decline over the prior two sessions. The selloff began after SpaceX agreed last week to acquire private equity firm Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio, refocusing attention on the spectrum battle for satellite-to-phone connectivity.
Entner said on X that major telecom carriers are likely to challenge the 25 MHz of spectrum the FCC plans to auction. "Every major carrier will likely bid on these licenses, either offensively or defensively," he said. His broader vision builds on Ligado and Viasat — "If Elon Musk acquires Ligado and Viasat and secures this new spectrum, Starlink could control a massive mid-band block for both terrestrial operations and direct-to-device services."
FCC to Auction 25 MHz Adjacent to AST's Spectrum
The FCC is seeking comments on auctioning the 1675-1695 MHz and 2020-2025 MHz bands, totaling 25 MHz. According to the agency's fact sheet, the proposed plan includes three unpaired blocks: Block A (1675-1685 MHz), Block B (1685-1695 MHz), and Block C (2020-2025 MHz), allowing flexible use for terrestrial wireless, direct-to-device (D2D), or a hybrid of both. The matter will be voted on at an open meeting on October 29, with final rules and auction dates yet to be determined. The same agenda also includes a major overhaul of the Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) framework — proposing to release an additional 482 MHz of licensed spectrum for SCS and lower regulatory barriers for transactions and secondary market transfers; as well as lifting restrictions on drones in the 800 MHz cellular band, freeing up 50 MHz of low-band spectrum.
These bands are adjacent to AWS-4, Ligado, and Viasat-related spectrum. This is particularly sensitive for AST: according to a 2025 term sheet, AST will obtain long-term use of up to 40 MHz of Ligado's L-band spectrum in the U.S. and Canada, plus 5 MHz in the 1670-1675 MHz band — the latter sitting right at the lower edge of the FCC's proposed auction band. The agreement between AST SpaceMobile and Ligado also includes consideration arrangements: Ligado will receive warrants convertible into AST stock (worth approximately $120 million within 12 months), plus annual cash payments of $80 million under a lease term of at least 80 years. According to AST's filing with the SEC, AST must pay Ligado approximately $550 million at closing, subject to regulatory approval and other conditions. Ligado filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January 2025 — after its plan to use L-band for a terrestrial 5G network was derailed by GPS interference disputes; under the restructuring plan, its debt will be reduced from $8.6 billion to approximately $1.2 billion, while the company continues to pursue a $40 billion claim against the U.S. government. Viasat is named because it inherited Inmarsat's L-band and S-band mobile satellite spectrum and global market access after acquiring Inmarsat in 2023, and is also a Ligado creditor (Ligado has payment obligations to Inmarsat); Viasat had previously planned to partner with Ligado on satellite direct-to-device services.
The Divergence Between AST and SpaceX's Two Paths
The path difference between AST and SpaceX is the underlying logic of this contest. AST relies on partnerships with carriers to connect satellites with ordinary phones: AT&T has signed a definitive commercial agreement with AST for space-based cellular broadband, Verizon has also signed its own direct-to-cellular service agreement; according to Ticker Report, TELUS and AST have completed Canada's first network integration test for phone-to-satellite connectivity. Meanwhile, T-Mobile (TMUS.US) currently uses SpaceX's Starlink. SpaceX, on the other hand, is assembling a more direct mobile network model — combining satellites, spectrum, and ground infrastructure into one.
Two moves last week made this line clearer: on October 7, the FCC approved its second-generation Starlink Mobile constellation application, allowing the launch of up to 15,000 satellites optimized for 2 GHz spectrum (operating in very low Earth orbit, aimed at expanding bandwidth and reducing latency); on October 8, SpaceX announced a definitive agreement with Grain Management to acquire 100% of its nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio, including up to 14 MHz of paired low-band spectrum. Neither party disclosed the price, but people familiar with the matter said it was approximately $8 billion in cash; the deal still requires FCC approval. The penetration power of low-band spectrum is precisely Starlink's previous weakness — existing 2 GHz mid-band has high bandwidth but weak wall penetration. Musk called the deal "a very major event" on X, and SpaceX said in an official blog post that this "premium low-band spectrum addresses one of the remaining critical technology gaps, which will make Starlink Mobile a major U.S. mobile operator." After the news broke, shares of T-Mobile, Verizon (VZ.US), and AT&T (T.US) each fell about 6% in after-hours trading on October 8. Verizon spokesperson Rich Young responded: "This company can own a lot of spectrum, but if it doesn't have a network that uses that spectrum, it doesn't matter. It's just radio waves in the air." According to International Finance News, the three carriers jointly established a satellite joint venture in May this year, widely seen as aimed at guarding against SpaceX.
How Is the Market Pricing It?
ASTS's volatility itself illustrates market unease. According to FinanceFeeds records, the stock had already fallen 6.1% during regular trading on October 8, and dropped another approximately 4% after hours following the SpaceX-Grain deal announcement; on October 9, it fell as low as $47.57 intraday (down 13.7% from the previous close of $56.93). By October 12, the stock closed at $51.46, up 0.97%, but still down 29% year-to-date; the 52-week range is $47.57 to $133.86, with the current price near the lower end of the range. Retail sentiment is similarly bearish: some users on Stocktwits accused ASTS of having no commercial revenue or profit, and of previously promising no further share issuance while still issuing more shares; another user called it a typical pump-and-dump. According to StockAnalysis data, AST's trailing twelve-month revenue is $115.3 million (up approximately 2,257% year-over-year), with a net loss of $619 million and a cash balance of $2.29 billion; 2026 revenue guidance is $150 million to $200 million, with an order backlog of approximately $1.3 billion, and the next earnings report is scheduled for November 9.
Sell-side views are clearly divided. Deutsche Bank upgraded ASTS to Buy on October 12 with a $93 price target, believing the SpaceX-related selloff is a misjudgment and citing spectrum value and catalysts; the bank also believes T-Mobile may shift its direct-to-device partnership from Starlink to AST. On the opposite side, B. Riley Securities downgraded to Neutral on October 2, cutting its price target from $85 to $65. According to StockAnalysis aggregation, AST's average price target is approximately $78. The market also lacks consensus on SpaceX's path. ARK Investment Management analyst Tasha Keeney believes the spectrum deal and satellite authorization give Starlink Mobile "a credible path to becoming a full mobile operator, rather than just a dead-zone backup," with low-band improving indoor coverage, and ground radios and small cells tied to Starlink antenna infrastructure supplementing capacity. MoffettNathanson's Craig Moffett believes SpaceX is still far from having what it takes to compete head-on with the Big Three, and its viable path remains obtaining a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) agreement from the three major carriers. New Street Research noted that SpaceX will remain "significantly behind" in low-band spectrum, and the newly acquired low-band spectrum is currently incompatible with its first- and second-generation direct-to-device satellites. LightShed Partners' Walt Piecyk judged that low-band requires massive antennas and satellites unsuitable for mass production, and this 800 MHz spectrum is more likely to serve as a "basement layer" for its terrestrial network rather than uplinking to satellites.
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