Data from Lighthouse Professional Edition shows that as of 12:00 on June 16, the cumulative box office for the 2026 film market has reached 16.429 billion yuan. This remains a significant gap compared to the 28.1 billion yuan recorded during the same period in 2025.
Against this backdrop, multiple forums at the ongoing 28th Shanghai International Film Festival have engaged in in-depth discussions about the current state of China's film market, revealing two key signals. In the investment sphere, low-budget films are poised for development opportunities, and works by young directors may see a concentrated emergence. Regarding AI application, technical bottlenecks still need to be overcome, and the establishment of industry-wide AI standards is urgently needed.
Restructuring Film Investment Logic
The market requires fresh talent.
"In the past two to three months, the question I've been asked most is 'How did Damai Entertainment discover 'A Letter to Grandma'? How can we replicate the next hit?'" At the main Jin Jue Forum of the 28th Shanghai International Film Festival, Damai Entertainment President Li Jie candidly stated, "Following the box office success of 'A Letter to Grandma', similar projects have been approaching us. For instance, 'A Letter to Grandpa' and various dialect scripts—projects that would have struggled to secure investment in the past."
As of 12:00 on June 16, the film "A Letter to Grandma" has achieved a box office of 1.75 billion yuan. The market widely believes the film's production cost was only in the tens of millions, making it a highly representative example of a "small investment, big return" success story in the 2026 film market.
Li Jie expressed that the film creation cycle inherently lags behind changes in audience taste. Rather than chasing fleeting popular trends, it is better to win hearts with sincere and moving stories.
"If we establish a 'coordinate system' for film investment, over the next decade, genre, type, and production cost will no longer be the core reference criteria. On one hand, greater emphasis will be placed on whether the creator's attitude is sincere. For example, recent low-cost, high-praise works invested in by Damai Entertainment, such as 'A Guilty Conscience' and 'The Sparring Partner', all come from young directors with a sincere attitude. On the other hand, investors and producers must adhere to a long-term perspective and maintain patience," Li Jie stated.
Based on this philosophy, Damai Entertainment has supported 75 young directors over five years through its "Haina International Young Director Development Program," with the youngest director born in 2002.
At the forum, Wang Jun, Party Secretary and Chairman of Shanghai Film Group Co., Ltd., also emphasized the importance of nurturing young talent in the film market. "As a film production institution, we maintain an open mind to discover young people, encourage their free expression, and accompany young creators in their growth," she said. She noted that since launching the "New Talent Program" in 2020, Shanghai Film Group has incubated six works, including audience-familiar titles like "B for Busy" and "The Little Monster of Langlang Mountain." The "Kunpeng Program" launched in 2024 will see works from four directors presented to audiences.
Yang Huaiyu, a senior researcher at Shanghai Xiazhi Liangshi Consulting Management Co., Ltd., commented, "The core reason for supporting young directors lies in the fact that the film market, as a content-driven industry, needs to establish emotional connections with audiences, particularly by understanding the preferences of younger viewers. Industry data shows that among films with a box office exceeding ten million yuan in 2024, over half were directed by young directors."
Challenges in Film AI Integration
Specialized vertical large models await breakthroughs.
Beyond investment trends, AI remained one of the hot topics at this year's Shanghai International Film Festival. At the sub-forum "Technology and Film Forum" within the Jin Jue Forum, executives from several film companies discussed the current state of industry and technology integration.
The industry generally believes that the current AI integration in film faces two core dilemmas: firstly, the difficulty in eliminating the "plastic feel" of AI-generated content, and secondly, the lack of vertical large models specifically developed for film production.
Li Tingwei, Deputy General Manager of Zijing Pictures, stated that the biggest challenge in current AI development is reducing the "AI feel." This "plasticity" is particularly prominent in feature-length narratives and emotional expression.
Qu Ji Xiaojiang, Deputy General Manager of Film and Television Production at Bona Film Group, noted that there is an essential difference in narrative between AI-generated short videos on mobile devices and theater-grade feature films. Existing AI technology cannot yet support complex narratives and emotional coherence for films over 90 minutes.
The core path to solving this dilemma is identified as developing "vertical large models" and establishing "standardization." Qu Ji Xiaojiang believes the industry lacks vertical large models specifically designed for the film industry, which is a key bottleneck for AI implementation. She proposed, "Digital IP not only holds value for derivative development, but the vast amounts of accumulated data can also be used to train vertical large models for the film domain."
A film producer remarked, "From the perspective of film industry development trends, cost reduction is inevitable. Film-specific vertical large models are the core lever for reducing costs and increasing efficiency. In the short term, they can address the pain points of general-purpose To C models being 'uncooperative' and 'not understanding narrative,' compressing film production costs from a 'yearly cycle costing tens of millions' to a 'monthly cycle costing millions.' In the medium term, they will establish industry-specific standards and workflows, achieving high consistency in characters and scenes, and completing industrial upgrading. In the long term, they will become key assets for film companies to build computational barriers and realize the cross-media revaluation of IP."
Regarding the construction of AI standards, Gong Bo, Director of the China Film Science and Technology Research Institute, revealed that China is taking the lead in formulating international standards for film AI, focusing on resolving issues such as AIGC content identification, aiming to "help without causing trouble."
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