On January 21st, China Vanke Co.,Ltd. reached a symbolic moment since the intensification of its liquidity struggles. It was learned that the maturity extension proposal for the "21 Vanke 02" bond was passed with over 92% of the votes in favor. This property giant, caught in the eye of the storm, has secured a crucial breathing space in the public debt negotiations, temporarily averting a technical default. This outcome also sets a potential precedent for the upcoming negotiations on Vanke's two medium-term notes. Over the past several days, Vanke's stocks and bonds experienced anxious and repeated fluctuations. As the plan was finalized today, the company's stock price surged over 4.59%, and its onshore bonds generally saw increases. A real estate analyst from a foreign investment bank suggested that the core reason "21 Vanke 02" secured over ninety percent approval was that Vanke, after two months of negotiations, adjusted the proposal to address investor concerns. Looking back over the past two months, Vanke's journey to extend its onshore bonds has been exceptionally arduous. Three previous bond extension proposals were met with a lukewarm reception; even after multiple revisions by Vanke, they failed to cross the 90% approval threshold from holders. The success of "21 Vanke 02" hinges on Vanke making substantive changes that demonstrated genuine诚意. In prior negotiations, creditors were most critical of the lack of immediate cash payments in the proposals, even perceiving an intent for a "zero down payment" extension. This time, Vanke explicitly proposed an immediate repayment of 40% of the put principal on January 30th. Vanke also introduced a key clause: a fixed payment of up to 100,000 yuan per securities account. While voting rights in bondholder meetings are calculated based on face value, the sentiment among retail investors can often be the deciding factor leading to a proposal's failure. This measure specifically addresses the demands of the vast number of small holders who are most sensitive to risk. Furthermore, for this extension, Vanke offered accounts receivable from project companies such as Wuhan Wanyun Real Estate and Xixian New Area Kezhu Property as additional credit enhancement measures. This combination of a "cash down payment + pledge of core assets" signifies that the博弈 between developers and their creditors has entered a stage of close-quarters combat. Creditors are no longer swayed by grand narratives; they are focused solely on the certainty of the next 12 months. Without tangible asset pledges and upfront cash payments, extension proposals are difficult to advance. While "21 Vanke 02" has successfully passed, Vanke still faces a formidable "wall of debt" to overcome. 2026 represents the peak maturity period for Vanke's onshore bonds, with principal exceeding 12 billion yuan due or with put options exercisable throughout the year. Furthermore, within the next week, two medium-term notes (totaling 5.7 billion yuan) where consensus has not been reached must also gain investor approval to avoid a short-term public bond default. Unlike the corporate bond passed today, medium-term note (MTN) holders are predominantly banks and large institutions with extremely stringent risk controls. The decision-making logic of these institutions is more rigid. Whether the success achieved with the 1.1 billion yuan extension can be replicated in the 5.7 billion yuan negotiation with institutional players will directly determine the quality of Vanke's credit standing in the first quarter of 2026. The passage of the 1.1 billion yuan extension is merely a signal. It indicates that creditors are not yet ready for Vanke to fail, and that Vanke is willing to put its most valuable chips on the table to stay in the game. However, for the remainder of 2026, the discount rates on asset disposals, the efficiency of sales collection, and those off-balance-sheet private debts not yet publicly disclosed will be the true determinants of whether this giant can "survive." Currently, all property developers must undergo a painful and fundamental restructuring. On one hand, organizational structures are being compressed to their limits. To ensure decision-making directives reach the front lines faster, developers are forced to eliminate冗长 management layers. On the other hand, there is an urgent need to maximize the activation of assets. A calm yet harsh reality is this: successfully passing a maturity extension does not mean a company has survived; it merely means it has retained its seat at the table. At the policy level, although the "whitelist" mechanism allows project loans to be extended for up to five years, a significant temperature gap remains between the safety net at the project level and the pressure from corporate-level public debt. Navigating this gap, developers must learn to walk a tightrope between ensuring housing project delivery and preserving their creditworthiness. The era when willpower and slogans could see companies through challenges is over for this industry. The Vanke's of the future may have to accept scaling down to a third of their former size, or even smaller,转而earning extremely hard-won, razor-thin operating management fees. Today's successful extension brings a glimmer of warmth to this bitter winter. What Vanke and the entire industry need is not just more time gained through extensions, but a clear strategy for utilizing this time to achieve a complete and fundamental transformation.
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