The rebound lasted only one day before the market lost its footing again, proving once more that relying on external forces is never dependable. Without an independent market trajectory, the situation remains passive. Today A-shares fell across the board, while Hong Kong stocks dropped 0.59%.
Middle East risks escalated overnight. According to CCTV News, the United States has notified multiple Gulf Arab states through diplomatic and military channels to prepare for a "short and intense military operation" after the U.S. midterm elections. Qatar's mediation draft was rejected by Iran, and Houthi missile strikes hit Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery. Multiple risk signals detonated simultaneously.
The National Development and Reform Commission announced today that from 24:00 on October 29, gasoline and diesel prices will rise again. For a family car with a 50-liter tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will cost 13.5 yuan more. This marks the fifth adjustment to refined oil prices in 2026. Higher prices translate directly into profits.
The biggest beneficiary, PetroChina (ASX: 00857), also delivered stable results. Its net profit attributable to shareholders rose 21.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with third-quarter net profit up 21.6% year-on-year, far outperforming most companies. The stock rose nearly 3% today.
At the October FOMC meeting concluded early this morning Beijing time, the Federal Reserve held rates steady as expected, maintaining the benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4%. Two dissenting votes signaled that some committee members believe rate hikes are warranted amid elevated inflation. At the press conference, Waller's remarks were contradictory: on one hand, he acknowledged that high rates are gradually permeating the AI investment boom; on the other, he emphasized that economic growth is spreading beyond AI. This aligns with his well-known aversion to forward guidance. Additionally, the number of rate-setting meetings will be gradually reduced in 2027 and 2028, with only about six meetings next year discussing rate changes. Overall, the market believes the probability of another rate hike in December is high.
Yesterday's discussion of tech giant earnings had raised hopes for optimistic data, but Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) failed to hold up. The company's third-quarter revenue and profit both missed expectations, and its free cash flow situation deteriorated further, recording negative free cash flow for two consecutive quarters. This suggests its massive AI investments have yet to generate sufficient returns to justify the spending. The main problem lies in the search business, which has been underperforming, as many other revenue streams are built upon it. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics delivered decent results but was absent from shareholder return plans, and investors were unimpressed.
Adding insult to injury, reports emerged that Marvell Technology is in talks to acquire data center optical module maker Lumentum, with an announcement expected as early as next week. It is well known that Zhongji Innolight (ASX: 03308) and Eoptolink (SZSE: 300502) have long relied heavily on Marvell's DSP chips for their high-speed optical module solutions, while a significant portion of their required EML and CW lasers are sourced from Lumentum. These two core components were previously supplied by two independent vendors. This means that after the deal closes, downstream module makers will face a more concentrated negotiating landscape. If DSP and light sources fall under the same interest entity, their bargaining power and delivery scheduling flexibility could be squeezed. The impact was evident: Zhongji Innolight (ASX: 03308) fell over 10%, dragging down CIG Shanghai (ASX: 06166), Wingtech Technology (ASX: 01989), and Kinwong Electronic (ASX: 03228), all of which dropped more than 12%. Many tech stocks gave back more today than they gained yesterday.
Some tech names still rose. Ingenic Semiconductor (ASX: 03223) reported first-three-quarter revenue of 7.102 billion yuan, up 106.66% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.616 billion yuan, up 922.95% year-on-year. The main driver was robust demand for DRAM chips, with tight market supply pushing prices higher; growing demand for Flash chips; and emerging fields like AI servers driving SRAM chip demand. The company's memory chip product line continued to see significant revenue growth. Analog chip prices barely rose in the first three quarters but will see some adjustment this quarter, partly due to rising upstream material costs and partly because peers have already begun raising prices. The stock rose over 4% today.
Brokerage stocks, often seen as market bellwethers, also added to the turmoil. Institutions estimate that the 43 listed brokerages will see a 24% quarter-on-quarter decline in third-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders, due to the sluggish market and pressure on some brokerages' proprietary trading books.
This is the current market reality. With nowhere else to go, capital once again clustered into the banking sector. Bank earnings are indeed stable and dividends generous. For example, Bank of Qingdao (ASX: 03866) reported double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters. Revenue reached 12.665 billion yuan, up 15.00% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.617 billion yuan, up 15.67% year-on-year. The stock rose nearly 4% today. ICBC (ASX: 01398), CCB (ASX: 00939), and ABC (ASX: 01288) all hit record highs again.
Surprisingly, insurance stocks also rebounded today. From an earnings perspective, insurers have generally been loss-making. On October 28, China Pacific Insurance (ASX: 02601) reported third-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 5.628 billion yuan, down about 68.4% year-on-year. The change was mainly due to capital market volatility. Data shows that in the first three quarters of 2026, China Pacific Insurance recorded approximately 24.515 billion yuan in fair value losses, compared with approximately 2.985 billion yuan in fair value gains in the first half of 2026. In short, the losses were mainly from stock market investments. As mentioned earlier, insurers took on tech positions at high levels and suffered significant losses. Today's rally likely reflects that most of the damage has been cleared, and further losses are unlikely, prompting some capital to bottom-fish. Ping An Insurance (ASX: 02318) and China Life Insurance (ASX: 02628) rose over 2.4%.
Today's market theme was clearly risk aversion, with healthcare stocks favored. Health 160 (ASX: 02656): in April this year, it disclosed that its "160 AI Hospital" had cumulatively partnered with over 102 public medical institutions, including 54 tertiary hospitals, with institutions above tier-three accounting for 76.5%. These 102 partner hospitals have a combined annual outpatient volume of approximately 84.37 million visits and total annual revenue of about 99.7 billion yuan. The company explicitly focuses on To B, not replacing doctors with C-end diagnostics, but turning AI into "medical digital employees" to help hospitals reduce costs, improve efficiency, and expand non-insurance revenue. The stock surged nearly 46% today. Another name, Qingsong Health (ASX: 02661), rose 18%.
Power and expressway stocks were also among the safe-haven choices. CGN Power (ASX: 01816): first-three-quarter revenue was approximately 51.098 billion yuan, up 3.98% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately 9.603 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year. The stock rose over 3%. Other names like Huaneng Power International (ASX: 00902) and China Resources Power (ASX: 00836) rose over 2%.
In the expressway sector, Shenzhen Expressway (ASX: 00548) reported first-three-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.552 billion yuan, up 5.54% year-on-year, with third-quarter net profit up 24.00% year-on-year. The stock rose nearly 4% today.
Topsports (ASX: 06110) announced interim results for the six months ended August 2026, with profit attributable to equity holders of 663 million yuan, beating market estimates of 597 million yuan. More importantly, it offered a dividend: earnings per share of 10.68 cents, with an interim dividend of 11 cents per share proposed. The stock rose over 11% today.
Sector Focus
Commercial space news is intensifying: Lijian-2 Y2 is awaiting launch; Zhuque-3 and other rockets are conducting recovery tests in batches; private space IPOs like LandSpace may resume; the second-generation Starnet constellation is expected to begin procurement in November-December, with mass launches in 2027. Shanghai released a satellite internet plan on October 26, targeting over 3,000 satellites in orbit by 2030 and an industry scale of 80 billion yuan. Overseas: Starship F15 window is in early November, planning dual catch, and success would boost expectations for normalized launches in 2027; Starlink V3 is deploying small micro base stations, and FAA permit simplification could affect SpaceX launch approvals. On October 29, 2026, the head of Xuntian Qianhe said that "commercial space may well skip the 'Ford moment' and leap directly into the 'Tesla moment.'" According to an August 28, 2026 earnings briefing, Junda Shares (ASX: 02865) acquired Xuntian Qianhe to enter commercial space; according to an October 26, 2026 interactive platform disclosure, the company's related initiatives are progressing normally, with the business still in early development. Other names include Goldwind Science & Technology (ASX: 02208), CIMC Enric (ASX: 03899), and Aerospace Science and Technology (ASX: 00031).
Stock Spotlight
Cathay Pacific Airways (ASX: 00293): September passenger volume up 12% year-on-year, with clear advantages over domestic airlines. Recently, Cathay Pacific released September operating data, showing a 12% year-on-year increase in passenger volume for September 2026, with available seat kilometers up 9% year-on-year. In the first nine months of 2026, passenger volume rose 14% compared with the same period in 2025. Comment: September is a pre-window after the summer peak for European and American Christmas stocking and student travel, and long-haul international routes are Cathay's core base, supported by students and business travelers. The recent stock weakness is mainly due to broader market conditions and concerns about fuel costs. The company's biggest advantage over domestic airlines is its scarce cargo segment. Domestic carriers mostly treat cargo as a side business, while Cathay Cargo is an independent growth curve. Its model: full freighters + passenger belly cargo + Hong Kong cargo terminal integration, with 34 self-owned wide-body freighters, focusing on high-value cargo such as chips, AI servers, precision equipment, fresh goods, and pharmaceutical cold chain, not ordinary low-price general cargo. It also benefits from Greater Bay Area advantages: the Guangdong-Hong Kong air-land fresh corridor (ALFL) and Dongguan air-land intermodal transport, which speed up cross-border customs clearance for fresh and temperature-controlled goods, a unique policy support for the Hong Kong hub. Cross-border e-commerce and semiconductor shipments provide a long-term demand foundation. In addition, it has implemented a dual-brand strategy: premium full-service plus low-cost carrier, covering two passenger segments. The main brand focuses on long-haul business and premium leisure travel to Europe, America, and Australia, with stable business and student passenger bases and strong front-cabin premium pricing power. The short-haul low-cost carrier, covering Southeast Asia and mainland short-haul routes, had been persistently loss-making but significantly narrowed its losses in the first half of 2026, from a loss of 524 million Hong Kong dollars to a loss of 73 million Hong Kong dollars, with a turnaround expected ahead. Management expects healthy full-service and low-cost passenger demand to continue in the fourth quarter. The mainland route business continues to expand, enhancing the transit hub value, with new direct flights to Changsha, Urumqi, and more, plus increased frequencies to Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Guangzhou. Its positioning is as a gateway for mainland travelers transiting through Hong Kong to Europe, America, and Australia, benefiting from normalized Hong Kong-Macau border crossings, outbound tourism, and a continued recovery in business travel. Dividends are also attractive, with the 2026 interim dividend up 30% year-on-year. With stable earnings, dividends are likely to attract capital.
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