The World Gold Council's data indicates that Turkey's gold mine production declined for the second consecutive year in 2025, while demand for gold jewelry and investment in bars and coins contracted simultaneously. As 2026 progresses, demand for bars and coins has shown a recovery, whereas jewelry consumption continues to fall. Against a backdrop of persistent inflation, lira volatility, and geopolitical risks, this divergence is likely to continue.
Declining Production and Contracting Demand Weigh on Turkish Gold Market
Preliminary estimates from the World Gold Council's full-year 2025 report show that global gold mine production increased slightly to approximately 3,672 tonnes, reaching a historical high. Its latest country-specific data reveals that Turkey's gold output dropped from 36.8 tonnes in 2023 to 32 tonnes in 2024, and further declined to 28.1 tonnes in 2025, marking a second year of decrease. Despite this, Turkey remains among the world's top 30 gold-producing nations.
Influenced by high gold prices, Turkey's overall gold demand weakened in 2025. Demand for bars and coins fell by 37% year-on-year to 71.1 tonnes, while gold jewelry consumption also dropped to its lowest level since 2020. Combined demand from these two categories decreased from 153.1 tonnes in 2024 to 103.9 tonnes.
In Istanbul's Grand Bazaar, gold shop windows remain densely packed, with gold bracelets, necklaces, and coins still attracting customer attention. However, jewelers are experiencing a direct shift in consumer behavior: customers are now less concerned with style and more focused on "how many grams." A local jeweler noted that it's hard for Turks to ignore gold, as "it's part of the tradition," but purchase quantities have significantly decreased. "In the past, someone might buy 10 small gold coins, but now they might only buy 3."
World Gold Council data shows that global gold jewelry consumption volume fell by 18% year-on-year in 2025. However, driven by rising gold prices, the value of consumption grew by 18%, reaching a record high. The Turkish market exhibited a similar "volume down, value up" trend: gold jewelry consumption volume dropped 20% to 32.8 tonnes, yet the consumption value increased by 14%. This indicates that while high gold prices push up the monetary value of jewelry purchases, they simultaneously erode consumers' actual purchasing power.
This change has a distinct social context in Turkey. Gold is not merely a commodity; it is a traditional gift for significant life events like weddings, births, and festivals, and also serves as a crucial vehicle for household savings and hedging. Currently, elevated gold prices, coupled with rising living costs and evolving attitudes toward marriage, are impacting this long-standing consumption habit. Data from the Turkish Statistical Institute shows the country's crude marriage rate declined from 8.35‰ in 2001 to 6.65‰ in 2024, and the average age for first marriage has also risen overall. Traditional gold consumption linked to wedding celebrations faces dual constraints from high prices and changing social structures.
An Istanbul resident preparing for a relative's wedding mentioned that in the past, families would directly state how much gold they hoped to prepare, whereas now, the couple more often assesses their financial capacity first and then discusses it with their families. "Weddings are too expensive now. Many young people prefer to stabilize their careers first and use their money for future life, rather than spending it all on a single day's ceremony."
Investment Demand Recovers, Future Market Remains Influenced by Gold Prices and Exchange Rates
Entering 2026, a new divergence has emerged in Turkey's gold market. World Gold Council data shows that in the first quarter, the country's demand for bars and coins grew by 29% year-on-year to 26.1 tonnes, with the demand value reaching a record $4 billion. In the same period, gold jewelry consumption fell by 23% to 6.8 tonnes. High gold prices continue to suppress jewelry consumption, while investment demand demonstrates resilience, supported by safe-haven sentiment.
Analysts believe that against the backdrop of high inflation, lira volatility, and regional uncertainties, gold is still viewed by many Turkish households as a more reliable store of value than cash. For many residents, gold possesses not only financial attributes but also carries cultural meanings of tradition, blessings, and family support, which foreign currencies like the US dollar cannot easily replace.
In contrast to the recovery in private demand for bars and coins in the first quarter, official reserves have seen an opposite adjustment. Based on reported data, the World Gold Council indicates that Turkey's official gold reserves saw a cumulative net reduction of approximately 81 tonnes in the first five months of 2026, marking the largest reported official net sale globally for that period. Analysis suggests this change may relate more to reserve management and liquidity adjustments during periods of market volatility, also reflecting the trade-offs Turkey faces between gold reserves, foreign exchange liquidity, and financial stability.
The structure of private gold demand is also evolving. Local jewelers have observed that some unmarried women over 35 are beginning to proactively purchase gold, rather than waiting to receive it as a gift through marriage. Personal financial security, which traditionally relied heavily on wedding gifts, is gradually transforming into a savings and financial management tool configured autonomously by women.
Looking ahead, the World Gold Council believes geopolitical risks and inflation pressures will continue to support demand for gold ETFs and bars/coins in 2026, while high gold prices will keep constraining jewelry consumption. Istanbul-based financial analyst Serpil Tuncer suggests that the Turkish market, being more sensitive to inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, may further amplify this global trend: jewelry and wedding-related gold use will remain constrained by purchasing power. However, if the lira exchange rate or regional situation experiences renewed volatility, household safe-haven demand for bars and coins could strengthen in phases.
On a deeper level, Turkey's gold market also faces challenges of insufficient domestic supply and inefficient price transmission. The country's domestic gold demand far exceeds local mine production, with the supply-demand gap long reliant on imports and recycled gold to fill. The combination of import quotas, lira volatility, and safe-haven demand keeps domestic gold prices persistently higher than international levels. This elevated local premium also increases raw material costs for jewelry processing enterprises. While high prices might boost the supply of recycled old gold, they are unlikely to eliminate the structural gap. Future market rebalancing will depend on exchange rate stability, adjustments to import policies, and changes in geopolitical risks.
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