Cinda Securities released a research report stating that the automotive industry is moving towards high-end, intelligent, and globalized high-quality development. By 2025, vehicle sales are expected to exceed 34 million units, with a significant increase in the market share of domestic brands and new energy vehicles (NEVs).
The intelligent driving sector is benefiting from improved regulations, with L3 and advanced autonomous driving technologies accelerating their implementation, presenting substantial market potential. Meanwhile, the robotics industry is rapidly evolving, with Tesla accelerating mass production. Strong domestic policy support further highlights the promising prospects for humanoid robots, which are also expected to drive growth in the automotive parts sector.
Key insights from Cinda Securities include: 1. **High-End, Intelligent, and Globalized Development**: Supported by favorable policies and the expansion of NEVs and exports, annual vehicle sales are projected to surpass 34 million units by 2025. Domestic brands and NEVs continue to gain market share, with independent brands accounting for 65% of retail sales from January to October, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year. NEV wholesale sales reached 12.058 million units, growing 29.9%, with a penetration rate of 50.7%.
Looking ahead to 2026, while policy adjustments may temporarily impact sales, the industry is shifting towards high-quality development. According to CRIC Consulting, passenger vehicle sales are expected to reach 31.094 million units in 2026, with growth stabilizing. However, companies benefiting from high-end, intelligent, and globalized trends may find structural opportunities.
2. **Intelligent Driving: Regulatory Progress and L3 Adoption**: Domestic regulations for intelligent connected vehicles are maturing, fostering a standardized industry environment. Domestic brands are accelerating autonomous driving R&D, with L2++ and higher models accounting for 38.65% of sales (3.643 million units) from January to September 2025.
In advanced autonomous driving, Robo-X applications are expanding: the Robotaxi market is projected to reach RMB 270 billion by 2030, while unmanned logistics vehicles are expected to contribute an incremental output value of RMB 594.8 billion in China by the same year.
3. **Robotics: Rapid Industry Growth**: Tesla is accelerating humanoid robot production, with mass production set to begin next year. Elon Musk forecasts annual production of 1 million units by 2030, while Bain & Company estimates global humanoid robot sales could hit 6 million units by 2035, with a market size exceeding $120 billion.
In China, supportive policies from over ten provinces—including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shenzhen, and Sichuan—are fueling industry growth. The country leads in humanoid robot startups, and automakers’ involvement is expected to further boost the automotive parts sector.
**Investment Recommendations**: - **Passenger Vehicles**: Focus on OEMs excelling in high-end, intelligent, and globalized segments, such as Huawei-backed automakers (e.g., Seres, JAC Motors), smart EV leaders (e.g., XPeng, Li Auto), and global performers (e.g., BYD, Leapmotor). - **Auto Parts**: Prioritize high-growth segments and fundamentally strong players, including Tesla suppliers (e.g., Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Controls), robotics-related firms (e.g., Joyson Electronics, FuDa, Guansheng), and autonomous driving leaders (e.g., Desay SV, Jingwei Hirain, Bethel, Keboda, Baolong Tech, Zhejiang Shibao). - **Commercial Vehicles**: Highlight top performers like Sinotruk A/H, Weichai Power, and Yutong Bus.
**Risks**: Policy delays, weaker-than-expected auto sales, and international trade policy fluctuations.
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