For stock investors, authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive analyst research reports help uncover potential thematic opportunities. With only three trading days left next week in the third quarter for A-shares, here is an early summary. Most investors' memories of this quarter begin with the sharp correction in technology stocks in July, followed by a modest rebound in early to mid-August, after which the market style shifted further. Some argue that from mid-to-late August, it was precisely the liquidity escaping from tech stocks that "nourished" other sectors and themes that had previously been suppressed, creating a brief state of "tech falls, everything else rises." However, this style rotation came with a rapid decline in trading volume and was difficult to sustain.
According to Wind data, as of September 24, the average daily turnover in A-shares shrank from 3.13 trillion yuan in June to 2.70 trillion yuan, 2.25 trillion yuan and 1.88 trillion yuan in July, August and September respectively. As the chart below shows, the Wind All-A index, representing the entire market, fluctuated repeatedly in the third quarter. Although there was support at the bottom, upward pressure was also evident, and no breakout was achieved.
This implies several things: (1) Many funds that were active in June and July either exited or got stuck, and gradually stopped trading afterward; (2) Due to the lack of coordinated capital flows, after the oversold rebound ended in early to mid-August, tech stocks' status as the "main storyline" was significantly downgraded, and most of the time they became just one of the destinations for sector rotation, with capital not staying long; (3) Since tech stocks still carry relatively high index weight and contribute strongly to index movements, the major stock indices also performed weakly in the third quarter, with indices having higher "tech content" faring worse. As of September 24, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 5.0% this quarter, the ChiNext Index had dropped 24.3%, and the STAR 50 had declined 26.5%.
No stock rises forever without falling. Reviewing this period is not merely nostalgia but rather reflection. However, we note that against the backdrop of "non-tech" sectors taking the lead, since mid-September, a small number of tech sectors and individual stocks have resonated with overseas markets, gradually recovering July's losses and approaching (or already reaching) new highs; some tech stocks barely fell in July and continued to rise in August and September, becoming "survivors." This reflects both localized herding of capital under new industrial logic and provides a new annotation for the tech sector's broad rally in June and broad selloff in July: in a market where "seven lose, two break even, one profits," at what moment did you clearly see and seize the trend?
The detailed review report is as follows. Investing carries risk, and independent judgment is essential. This article is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for buying or selling. Market entry risks are borne by the investor.
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