Gold prices rebounded from a two-month low, supported by easing interest rate and exchange rate pressures, delayed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, and continued central bank gold purchases. However, the high interest rate environment in the US dollar has not loosened, and the probability of a December rate hike remains relatively high, which leaves gold prices lacking momentum for sustained upward movement. Short-term technical indicators also show that gold's rebound signal has weakened.
On Monday during the European session, gold fell further in the short term. By the start of the US session, it dropped to $4,154 and stabilized. After rebounding to $4,175 and encountering resistance, gold prices remained range-bound until the close. On Tuesday's open, gold repeatedly tested $4,175 and faced resistance before falling under pressure again, hitting a low of $4,150. After stabilizing, it rebounded to $4,200 and met resistance, currently trading at $4,182.
Overall, gold stabilized at the $4,150 support level and faced resistance at the $4,200 pressure level, with the movement largely in line with expectations. According to star analysts, Monday's pullback from a one-week high was mainly dragged down by a stronger US dollar and rising oil prices. Specifically, after high-level consolidation last week, the US dollar fell first and then rose on Monday, hitting a new high since April last year, which weakened the appeal of holding gold. International oil prices continued to strengthen, hitting a four-week high, which pushed up inflation expectations while strengthening the US dollar's safe-haven attributes, creating a double suppression on gold. However, the pullback in gold was limited, and it launched a rebound on Tuesday as the US dollar retreated in the short term, temporarily giving back all of Monday's gains. The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields continued to face pressure, falling from multi-decade highs to a one-week low, providing short-term support for gold prices.
On the daily chart, after hitting a new one-week high, gold's rebound encountered resistance, continuing to maintain low-level range-bound trading. For downside support, attention can be paid to the intraday low of $4,150, which is also near the 5-day and 10-day moving averages on the daily chart, followed by the $4,100 integer mark, where gold prices have stabilized and rebounded over the past two weeks. For upside pressure, attention can be paid to the $4,200 integer mark, also the intraday high, followed by the daily Bollinger Band middle rail at $4,220, which is also the current 4-hour Bollinger Band upper rail. The 5-day moving average shows a slight golden cross, the MACD indicator shows a slight golden cross, the RSI indicator shows a small golden cross, and the KDJ indicator crosses upward. Gold has short-term rebound demand, but the rebound signal is weak.
Intraday reference for gold: After hitting a new one-week high, gold faced resistance and pulled back due to rising US dollar and oil prices, continuing to maintain low-level range-bound trading. In terms of operations, it is recommended to adopt a range-bound approach, with downside support at $4,150 and $4,100, and upside pressure at $4,200 and $4,220.
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