According to Woofun AI, the US Treasury is extracting approximately $77 billion in liquidity from the banking system, creating a severe macro capital predicament for Bitcoin. This reserve contraction, driven by fiscal withdrawals, is reshaping risk pricing logic for crypto assets. In the week ending July 29, the average US bank reserve balance plummeted by $77.579 billion, falling to a total of $2.944541 trillion.
Woofun AI compiled data shows that the Treasury General Account (TGA) surged to $970.442 billion, increasing by $81.153 billion in a single week. This accounted for the vast majority of the $89.88 billion weekly average growth in total deposits, making it the largest capital absorption pool after reserves. The underlying cause lies in adjustments to the Treasury's financing strategy.
Borrowing is expected to increase by an additional $68 billion from July to September. Although SOMA auction rollovers are not included in this metric, SOMA redemption funds have been incorporated into net borrowing calculations, while total issuance follows a different accounting standard. Multiple changes to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet have further obscured capital flows, and the interaction between the cash and funding markets makes the source of buyer capital a key variable in determining bank reserve pressure.
The financing structure chart, set to be released on August 5, will serve as a critical guide. By analyzing the allocation ratio between bills and coupons, auction sizes, and buyback plans, the market can gain insight into the specific destination of funds. If the proportion of bills is high, pressure depends on the funding source; if coupon supply is high, it will boost demand for long-term debt. The final settlement of reserve balances will directly reflect the substantive impact of this fiscal operation on broader market risk appetite.
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