Benefiting from the sustained release of leisure tourism demand and the rise of experiential consumption, coupled with the continued upward industry景气度 in Q4, the annual tourism market size is expected to achieve a growth rate of 10%+. With the government recently repeatedly mentioning the expansion of domestic demand and boosting service consumption, along with encouraging trade unions to organize spring/autumn outings and supporting the distribution of cultural tourism消费 vouchers, the travel sector represented by OTAs, hotels, and scenic spots is expected to benefit from policy tailwinds. Stocks within the tourism industry chain are recommended; additionally, attention is advised on布局 opportunities in high-growth tea beverage stocks and low-valuation餐饮 growth stocks. The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows.
Domestic tourism revenue/person-times in 2025 Q1-Q3 increased by 12%/18% year-on-year. Thanks to the continuous release of leisure tourism demand and the emergence of experiential consumption需求,叠加 Q4 industry景气 continuing its upward trend, the full-year tourism market size growth rate is projected to reach 10%+. As the government has frequently emphasized expanding domestic demand and revitalizing service consumption lately, supplemented by鼓励工会开展 spring/autumn tours and support for issuing文旅消费 coupons, the出行 sector, epitomized by OTAs, hotels, and景区, is poised for policy benefits. Within the tourism industry chain, China Tourism Group Duty Free, Jinjiang Hotels, BTG Hotels, Tongcheng Travel, and Trip.com Group are recommended.
Furthermore, it is suggested to focus on布局 opportunities in high-growth tea beverage stocks and undervalued餐饮 growth stocks: Guming and Green Tea Group.餐饮: Offline consumption is gradually recovering, with Q4餐饮 revenue showing steady growth. Domestic餐饮 revenue in October/November 2025 reached 519.9/605.7 billion yuan, increasing by 4.99%/4.40% year-on-year respectively, recovering to 119.0%/122.0% of the same period in 2019. Leading餐饮 enterprises are recovering faster than the industry; attention is recommended on Green Tea Group and Haidilao.
Tea Beverage: Takeaway subsidies drive significant same-store sales growth, leading brands accelerate store openings. Since Q4 2025,得益于外卖 subsidies and tea beverage brands experimenting with category expansion like coffee and breakfast, brands represented by Guming and Auntea Jenny have maintained high same-store sales growth of 15-20%. Although外卖 subsidy intensity slightly decreased in Q4, combined with the accelerated exit of tail-end brands due to外卖 traffic倾斜 and leading brands speeding up expansion, the advantages of龙头 brands have become more pronounced. Guming is recommended for focus.
OTA: Travel demand continues to recover, long-term profit release certainty for leaders is strong. Since Q4 2025, with the release of domestic leisure tourism demand, growth in hotel supply, and the gradual increase in online penetration rate,叠加 the current performance of leisure tourism demand consistently outperforming business travel, OTA performance has remained stable with positive trends & possesses long-term growth momentum.业绩 holds elasticity catalyzed by the high growth of outbound travel. Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel are recommended.
Hotel: Q4 RevPAR expected to remain flat, cost reduction and efficiency improvement enhance profitability. The number of hotel rooms in Q4 2025 increased by 6%-8% year-on-year. Overall hotel RevPAR was basically flat compared to Q4 2024, performing better than Q1-Q3, mainly due to National Day holiday passenger flow growth, the low base in the same period of 2024, and the autumn break for primary school students in October-November. If subsequent holiday optimizations or消费券-related policies materialize, leading hotels possess significant业绩 elasticity in a pro-cyclical environment. Jinjiang Hotels and BTG Hotels are recommended.
Risk warnings: Macroeconomic consumption downturn, store opening progress falling short of expectations, exchange rate risks, intensifying industry competition.
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