China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that, driven by the combined effects of batch deployment of low-orbit satellite constellations and accelerated validation of reusable rockets, testing is evolving from single-unit/single-satellite verification towards a systematic capability for mass production characterized by "parallel, automated, intelligent, and simulation-first" approaches. This evolution demonstrates three major trends: high standardization, deep integration of high computing power, and multi-disciplinary collaboration, creating structural opportunities for import substitution of high-end instruments and the capacity expansion of third-party laboratories. The report suggests focusing on the testing equipment sector, highlighting companies such as Kunheng Shunwei (688283.SH), Su Shi Test (300416.SZ), Xi Ce Test (301306.SZ), and Kangsite (300445.SZ).
The景气度 (market vitality) of China's commercial aerospace sector has risen significantly, with the industry scale expanding rapidly. According to China Investment Advisors, the scale of China's commercial aerospace industry is projected to reach 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of over 26% and a 180% increase from 2020. Within this value chain, upstream satellite manufacturing and rocket launch segments account for approximately 10% of the value, midstream ground equipment manufacturing for about 45%, and downstream satellite application services for the remaining 45%.
Commercial aerospace imposes higher demands on testing equipment, which is involved in all stages of a satellite's lifecycle—from R&D design and prototype development to mass production and final delivery. Even after the industry enters a phase of batch launches, individual satellites still require routine testing. The testing dimensions for commercial aerospace are comprehensive and require increasing specialization, covering aspects such as environmental adaptability, electromagnetic compatibility, communication performance (transmit power/frequency accuracy/data rate/bit error rate), network coordination (time synchronization/link switching/load balancing), reliability lifespan, and safety (redundancy/collision avoidance/cybersecurity).
Domestic companies are accelerating their efforts to catch up with international peers, indicating substantial room for import substitution. The development cycle for cutting-edge scientific instruments is long and the technological barriers are high. China's independent R&D in scientific instruments has been relatively lagging, and the country is engaged in a challenging battle to achieve a breakthrough. In the realm of communication test equipment, US-based Keysight (KEYS.N), Germany's Rohde & Schwarz, and Japan's Anritsu (6754.T) remain the three giants dominating the industry. Domestic firms have been rapidly closing the gap in recent years, suggesting significant long-term potential for import substitution.
Risk提示 (Risk Warning): The development of the commercial aerospace and space-based computing power industries may fall short of expectations.
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