As the world's largest bauxite producer, Guinea plans to announce reform measures next month to control exports of this ore used in aluminum production, as it seeks to boost aluminum prices. Guinea accounts for over one-third of global bauxite production. In 2025, the country's bauxite exports surged by a quarter to 183 million tons, with export growth accelerating further in the first three months of this year. According to the country's Minister of Mines and Geology, Bouna Sylla, this situation has led to a market downturn, with bauxite prices plummeting by nearly half from their peak at the beginning of last year.
Sylla stated, "Supply must not exceed demand. We aim to bring prices back to a reasonable level by regulating export volumes." The minister revealed that the government expects to finalize this new policy in June, which had been hinted at several months ago.
From Guinea's perspective, changes in mining policy are expected to drive a reversal and upward trend in bauxite and alumina prices. Guinea significantly impacts global bauxite supply. According to CRU and Chinese customs data, Guinea accounted for 40.6% of global bauxite production in 2025 and 74.3% of China's bauxite imports. This change in Guinea's mining policy may lead to a contraction in global bauxite supply, thereby stimulating a price reversal and upward trend.
Previously, a research report suggested that considering the U.S.-Iran conflict and Guinea's tightening of supply through mining policy, prices for primary aluminum, energy, and alumina are expected to recover. It recommended focusing on primary aluminum producers with high self-sufficiency in power and alumina.
Hong Kong-listed stocks related to the aluminum industry chain:
CHALCO (02600): On May 21 local time in Guinea, CHALCO, a listed company under the Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco), through its investment vehicle, Chalco Hong Kong, signed agreements related to an alumina project with the Guinean government in Conakry, the capital of Guinea. The signed CHALCO Guinea alumina project leverages Guinea's high-quality resources, with a planned investment of approximately $1 billion to construct a production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons of alumina.
NANSHAN AL INTL (02610): NANSHAN AL INTL is an alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia, primarily producing metallurgical-grade alumina using the low-temperature Bayer process. The company is one of the three major alumina producers in Southeast Asia, with a designed alumina production capacity of 2 million tons. According to Frost & Sullivan 2023, the group was the second-largest producer in the Southeast Asian alumina market, holding a 34.9% market share. Its largest customer is the Press Metal group, accounting for over 50% of revenue in the first nine months of 2024. Currently, the company's operational alumina production facility has a designed annual capacity of 2 million tons. A new alumina production project has just begun construction, with the first 1 million tons of annual alumina production and the second 1 million tons expected to commence operations in the second half of 2025 and the second half of 2026, respectively. The controlling shareholder is the A-share listed company Nanshan Aluminum, expected to hold 60.09% after the global offering.
CHINAHONGQIAO (01378): CHINAHONGQIAO Group is a large-scale enterprise integrated across the entire aluminum industry chain, encompassing thermal power, mining, alumina, liquid aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots, aluminum alloy cast-rolled products, aluminum busbars, high-precision aluminum sheet, strip, and foil, and new materials. Its primary aluminum and alumina capacities are mainly concentrated in Shandong and Yunnan regions, with over ten production bases. As of 2025, the company had a total alumina capacity of 21 million tons domestically and internationally, compliant primary aluminum capacity of 6.46 million tons, and aluminum processing capacity of 970,000 tons. As a member of the Winning Consortium, the company has bauxite operations in Guinea. In 2025, the Winning Consortium's Boké bauxite exports exceeded 70 million wet tons, and Weiqiao International is expected to ship over 90 million tons in 2026, with bauxite raw materials expected to be fully secured.
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