Abstract
Applied Materials will report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results on November 12, 2026 Post-Mkt. This preview outlines consensus expectations for revenue, margins, net profit and EPS with year-over-year views, reviews last quarter’s performance, and summarizes institutional perspectives for the upcoming print.
Market Forecast
Consensus points to fiscal Q4 revenue of 10.30 billion US dollars, EBIT of 3.62 billion US dollars, and adjusted EPS of 4.05, implying year-over-year growth of 54.52% for revenue, 92.03% for EBIT, and 93.64% for EPS; the company’s gross margin is expected to remain robust, while net profit margins are projected to expand alongside operating leverage. The main business is set to benefit from sustained wafer fab equipment spending in leading-edge logic and foundry, with Applied Global Services providing recurring support revenue and Energy and Environmental Solutions contributing modestly; the most promising segment is Semiconductor Systems, with forecast revenue momentum outpacing the group and delivering accelerating year-over-year gains.
Last Quarter Review
Applied Materials delivered fiscal Q3 revenue of 9.12 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 50.31%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.54 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 27.84%, and adjusted EPS of 3.50, marking year-over-year growth of 24.83% in revenue and 41.13% in EPS. A notable highlight was sequential operating discipline despite a quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit of 9.55%, with cost control supporting margin durability. Main business composition featured Semiconductor Systems at 7.04 billion US dollars, Applied Global Services at 1.78 billion US dollars, and Energy and Environmental Solutions at 0.29 billion US dollars, reflecting the ongoing dominance of wafer fab equipment demand; segment YoY growth was led by Semiconductor Systems as capacity additions concentrated in advanced nodes.
Current Quarter Outlook
Semiconductor Systems
The current quarter should be anchored by Semiconductor Systems demand tied to process technology transitions in gate-all-around, backside power delivery, and heterogeneous integration. Order book strength from leading foundry customers indicates sustained investments in advanced nodes, supporting higher system shipments and mix toward premium deposition and etch tools. Pricing discipline and mix shift can enhance margins, and installation schedules suggest revenue recognition aligned with customer ramp timelines. While memory capital intensity remains selective, incremental DRAM and NAND upgrades geared to AI servers and high-bandwidth memory can add to the baseline. The principal swing factor is delivery timing and regional export clearances, which can influence quarterly linearity.
Applied Global Services
Services revenue offers stability through spares, upgrades, and performance contracts, cushioning quarter variability and broadening margin resilience. Contract renewal rates and installed base growth underpin a predictable stream, and upgrade kits for AI-optimized processes support higher attachment per tool in the field. The outlook is for mid-teens growth on the installed base expansion, which should lift gross margin through mix and scale. A potential headwind is customer utilization volatility, which can defer discretionary upgrades if fab loading fluctuates. Nevertheless, long-dated service agreements provide visibility that supports consolidated earnings quality.
Energy and Environmental Solutions
Energy and Environmental Solutions remains a smaller contributor but can benefit from selective adoption of display and environmental abatement solutions. Revenue traction depends on project approvals and customer capex cycles, keeping absolute contribution modest relative to core WFE. A positive read-through is tighter environmental compliance, which supports orders for abatement systems tied to new fab builds. The cadence is likely uneven, yet the business adds diversification and optionality without materially altering consolidated margin profiles this quarter.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The stock’s near-term reaction will hinge on the revenue trajectory versus guidance, EPS delivery versus consensus, and commentary on order backlog and shipment timing. Management color on AI-related wafer fab equipment intensity and high-bandwidth memory transitions will be parsed for 2027 spending visibility. Any update on export licensing and regional demand mix can affect sentiment, as delivery clearances may shift revenue between quarters. Gross margin drivers include mix of deposition/etch versus other tools, pricing realization, and services contribution; confirmation of operating leverage would support the case for sustained margin expansion.
Analyst Opinions
Most institutional views are bullish, with brokerage previews emphasizing upside risk to revenue and EPS from AI-driven WFE intensity and strong foundry spending. Analysts highlight a favorable mix toward leading-edge tools, reinforcing expectations for gross margin stability and improving operating leverage. Positive commentary from well-known firms points to backlog strength and resilient services revenue, with price targets reflecting confidence in multi-quarter growth durability driven by semiconductor capital cycles.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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