On September 11, all three major A-share indices declined together, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing the 3,900-point threshold as more than 4,800 stocks across the market closed in the red. The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.18% to 3,888.11 points, the Shenzhen Component Index slipped 1.08% to 13,471.26 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.49% to 3,322.04 points. Meanwhile, the CSI 300 Index shed 0.84%, the STAR 50 Index lost 1.01%, and the BSE 50 Index tumbled 2.66%.
In stark contrast to the chilly secondary market, sell-side institutions are bustling with activity as major brokerages host their autumn strategy sessions in droves. As of September 11, dozens of securities firms have held or announced plans for such research conferences, including China Securities Co., Ltd., Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd., Huatai Securities Co., Ltd., GF Securities Co., Ltd., Caitong Securities Co., Ltd., SDIC Securities Co., Ltd., and Sinolink Securities Co., Ltd.
A review of the autumn strategy content from multiple brokerages reveals a growing consensus that the market is shifting from a tech-dominated rally to a more diversified and balanced landscape. Repair, balance, dividends, and technology are this year's key themes, though strategy viewpoints diverge considerably. Some firms argue that short-term volatility will not disrupt the broader trend and foresee a recovery and rebound "golden autumn rally," while others remain cautious, advocating a defensive stance with a preference for dividend-yielding assets.
Institutions Debate the 鈥淕olden Autumn Rally鈥
Given the extensive listed-company communication sessions, some brokerages' autumn strategy meetings stretch over two days, with Hua Fu Securities Co., Ltd. extending its event to four days. Offline venues are concentrated in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, with Shanghai serving as the primary host. In late September, strategy conferences for two major head brokers, CICC and CITIC Securities Co., Ltd., are slated for Hong Kong.
Guotai Haitong Securities Chief Strategy Analyst Fang Yi stated unequivocally that the historical conditions for a "slow bull, long bull, and transition bull" have taken shape, and July's market volatility will not interrupt the overall trajectory. Supported by accommodative economic policies and positive industrial progress in autumn, the market is set to embark on a repair-and-recovery "golden autumn rally."
"The long-term opportunity for China's capital markets remains intact, as does the era-defining chance presented by AI industry transformation," said Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd. Research General Manager and TMT Group Leader Tang Haiqing. He noted that the shift of household wealth toward equity assets is an inevitable trend. Global AI development continues at full throttle, with computing power in short supply and storage and optical components being the scarcest links, underscoring that industry momentum remains unshaken by short-term fluctuations.
Yet, other brokerages adopt a more prudent tone. "The current positioning structure in tech stocks is still undergoing adjustment, and market capital preferences have clearly pivoted toward stable assets," observed He Kang, Deputy Director of Huatai Securities Research Institute, Chief Strategy Officer, and Chief Financial Engineering Analyst. He projected that the style rebalancing trend in A-shares could persist into Q4 2026, driven mainly by changes in the liability side of funds.
"Over the next three to six months, the market will gradually move away from single-theme speculation into a phase of allocation rebalancing, with investment logic returning to fundamentals, filtering out noise through crowding-degree assessment and earnings validation," said Liang Hong, Chair of Huatai Securities Institutional Business Committee, offering her outlook on the A-share market. She emphasized that the market currently sits at a juncture where macro volatility and technological leaps resonate, making divergence the defining characteristic of the present landscape.
Sector Allocation Keywords: AI and Dividends
On the allocation front, brokerages generally favor two primary buckets: technology and dividends, while interest in financials, healthcare, and agricultural products is also picking up. Tianfeng Securities Chief Strategy Analyst Wu Dake believes the "policy bottom" is gradually emerging, urging close attention to the pace and intensity of transmission from the policy bottom to the market bottom.
Discussing the logic behind tech-sector performance, Wu Dake suggested that after market rebalancing, ROI will take over from AI narratives. The upside potential for tech lies on both the supply and demand sides, with three tiers within the main theme based on earnings-verification gradients: anchors for earnings confirmation, secondary themes sharing the core narrative but requiring more high-frequency data validation, and peripheral segments benefiting from spillover.
"We recommend a balanced offense-defense approach," Liang Hong advised, positioning quality AI names as the offensive core while using high-dividend, stable-cash-flow assets as defensive ballast. She also maintains a positive outlook on supply-constrained strategic sectors such as power, resources, and agricultural products. He Kang suggested balanced allocation into sectors with valuation gaps between earnings and positioning, like shipbuilding, select chemicals, agriculture, and innovative drugs, while anchoring the bottom portfolio in dividend payers and awaiting fresh market consensus.
Looking ahead, Fang Yi noted that investment is no longer a "one-track" affair, with diffusion and balance as key traits. He favors locally innovative tech, materials, manufacturing, and pharma, alongside large financials and high-dividend sectors. GF Securities Chief Strategy Analyst Liu Chenming outlined three points: First, stable-value assets still hold allocation win rates, though odds have narrowed versus mid-year, with expected returns normalizing. Second, the investment paradigm for domestic-demand property and consumption is undergoing fundamental shifts, transitioning cyclical investment logic from "betting on policy inflection" to "confirming earnings improvement." Third, the institutional landscape of A-shares has evolved from active public funds dominating to a multi-party equilibrium, with AI industry remaining a structural growth theme.
On equity market allocation, Sinolink Securities Chief Economist Song Xuetao also contends that technology stays a vital main line, albeit with heightened sector volatility, rotation, and possible contraction in target scope. A-share opportunities also extend to RMB asset revaluation, earnings recovery in traditional enterprises, and valuation repairs across tech, healthcare, and defense sectors.
Comments