A "Notice of Case Filing" recently issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has thrust cathode materials leader Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. into the eye of a public opinion storm.
The trigger for this controversy can be traced back to a major cooperation announcement disclosed by Ronbay just days prior.
At that time, Ronbay publicly announced it had signed an agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.,Ltd. to supply 3.05 million tons of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials over six years, with total sales value exceeding 120 billion yuan.
However, shortly after Ronbay announced this "super order," the Shanghai Stock Exchange swiftly issued an inquiry letter that very evening, directly questioning the basis for the order value and Ronbay's fulfillment capability, among other core issues.
On January 18, Ronbay responded, stating that the "total contract value of 120 billion yuan" was merely a company estimate and that the original announcement's description of the total contract value was not rigorous. More surprisingly, the announcement for this significant daily operational contract "was not submitted to the Chairman for signing."
Beyond the current investigation it is embroiled in, Ronbay is also facing significant performance pressure. Although the company expects to turn a profit in the fourth quarter alone last year, looking at the full year, the company still anticipates an annual net loss ranging from 150 million to 190 million yuan. If this forecast holds true, 2025 would mark the first full-year loss for Ronbay since its listing.
As of the close on January 20, Ronbay's latest market capitalization was 23.65 billion yuan. Tianyancha data shows that Ronbay's actual controller is Bai Houshan.
In the "2025 Hurun Rich List" released last October, Bai Houshan reappeared on the list with a fortune of 6.4 billion yuan, although his wealth has shrunk by over 10 billion yuan compared to 2021.
The "120 billion yuan contract" faced scrutiny, leading to a CSRC investigation into Ronbay.
On January 18, Ronbay announced that it had received a "Notice of Case Filing" from the CSRC. Due to suspected misleading statements in the company's major contract announcement, the CSRC decided to initiate an investigation against the company in accordance with relevant laws and regulations.
Regarding this investigation, Ronbay emphasized in its announcement that all current business operations and activities are proceeding normally.
During the investigation period, the company will fully cooperate with the CSRC's work and strictly fulfill its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner according to relevant laws, regulations, and regulatory requirements.
Ronbay's investigation stems from a major contract announcement disclosed on January 13. At that time, Ronbay announced in the filing that it had signed a "Procurement Cooperation Agreement for Lithium Iron Phosphate Cathode Materials" with CATL.
The agreement stipulated that, starting from the first quarter of 2026 until 2031, Ronbay is expected to supply CATL with a total of 3.05 million tons of LFP cathode materials for the domestic market, with total sales under the agreement exceeding 120 billion yuan.
However, after the announcement was released, the STAR Market Company Management Department of the Shanghai Stock Exchange sent an inquiry letter to Ronbay that same evening, requesting the company to verify and disclose supplementary information on relevant matters.
In its January 18 response to the SSE's inquiry, Ronbay admitted that the agreement did not specify a total procurement value. The "total contract value of 120 billion yuan" was an estimate by the company, and the final actual sales scale would depend on raw material prices and quantities at the time of actual order placement, meaning the sales amount is uncertain.
Ronbay stated that the original announcement's description of the total contract value was not rigorous; risk warnings potentially arising from this agreement were insufficient, and some wording was not standardized. However, the company denied any motive to hype its stock price using a large contract and stated it would further enhance the rigor of its information disclosure in the future.
Even more surprisingly, Ronbay stated in its reply that for this major daily operational contract announcement, it was "reviewed by the Board Secretary and the temporary announcement disclosure was organized, but it was not reported to the Chairman for signing."
According to the company's information disclosure system, the third step in the procedure for the type of information disclosure matter to which this contract belongs is "Review by the Board Secretary, Signing by the Chairman."
Regarding the issues involved in Ronbay's contract disclosure, the Shanghai Stock Exchange stated that it would subsequently initiate disciplinary procedures based on the company's reply.
The CSRC also clearly stated that it would proceed with handling the case according to the law based on a comprehensive investigation, effectively safeguarding the healthy and stable development of the market.
By the close of trading the day after the investigation announcement (January 19), Ronbay's stock price fell to 33.18 yuan per share, a single-day drop of 11.16%.
It is worth noting that this is not the first time Ronbay has attracted attention due to information disclosure issues. As early as 2021, Ronbay executives were publicly criticized by the Shanghai Stock Exchange for information disclosure violations.
In May of that year, then-Chairman and actual controller Bai Houshan, then-Board Secretary Zhang Yuan, and others revealed significant information about the company's capacity construction, actual commissioning, and production volumes, and made predictions of future performance exceeding expectations for the company's main business during an investor exchange event related to the "2021 Mid-Term Strategy Meeting." This triggered a rise in the company's stock price and led to abnormal trading volatility.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange determined that such information should have been disclosed by the company in a true, accurate, complete, timely, and fair manner on media platforms meeting CSRC requirements. However, the company's personnel disclosed the information at a small-scale investor exchange meeting, violating fair disclosure requirements and creating a negative impact.
Subsequently, Bai Houshan and Zhang Yuan were also subject to administrative supervisory measures by the Ningbo Securities Regulatory Bureau, receiving warning letters.
Questions were raised about fulfillment capability; how to meet the annual demand of 500,000 tons?
According to the announcement and supporting documents submitted by Ronbay, the agreement did not stipulate a total sales amount, and the company did not announce the basis for determining the sales value.
Besides the basis for determining the sales value, a core质疑 in the SSE's inquiry letter also directly targeted Ronbay's ability to fulfill the contract.
More critically, a previous announcement showed that on December 13, 2025, Ronbay disclosed an announcement regarding the acquisition and capital increase for Guizhou Xinren, stating that Guizhou Xinren currently possessed an annual production line capacity of 60,000 tons of LFP. The disclosed built LFP capacity is far from the supply volume projected in this agreement.
According to the agreement, from 2026 to 2031, Ronbay needs to supply 3.05 million tons of LFP cathode materials to CATL, averaging over 500,000 tons per year. However, Guizhou Xinren's existing capacity is only 12% of this demand.
In its response to the inquiry, Ronbay stated that in the future, the company would continue to expand its capacity scale through investment, mergers, acquisitions, and self-built capacity to meet actual customer order demand.
To address the capacity gap, Ronbay stated that the company would arrange for corresponding new construction and capacity expansion according to the capacity building pace stipulated in the agreement and actual order signings to meet supply requirements. It is estimated that the capital expenditure to meet the fulfillment needs of this contract over the next three years will be approximately 8.7 billion yuan.
Specifically, considering construction progress and payment schedules, the estimated capital expenditure required for capacity expansion in 2026, 2027, and 2028 is 3.6 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan, respectively. A small amount of warranty retention money will be paid in 2029.
Regarding funding sources, Ronbay stated that the company plans to meet the capital needs for project construction and commissioning through methods including bank loans, internal funds, and others.
Ronbay mentioned in its reply that as of the end of the third quarter of last year, the book balance of the company's current assets was 13.336 billion yuan, of which monetary funds and tradable financial assets amounted to 4.591 billion yuan, and the balance of bank acceptance bills was 2.578 billion yuan.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the company had obtained total bank credit lines of 19.737 billion yuan, of which 8.438 billion yuan in credit额度 remained unused.
Ronbay believes that although this project requires significant investment, the company has sufficient capital reserves and good financing capabilities, and it is not expected to have a major adverse impact on the company's liquidity or financial position. The company has the ability to provide solid financial guarantees for the fulfillment of this contract.
However, Ronbay also admitted that subsequent capacity construction is subject to multiple factors such as project approval, capital investment, construction progress, and market environment. There is some uncertainty regarding the ability to achieve capacity targets on time and in volume. There is also a risk that subsequent capacity investment and acquisitions could encounter obstacles.
It is worth noting that Ronbay stated that if subsequent construction funds are insufficient, it could negotiate with CATL for support in capacity construction through advance payments or joint ventures. If downstream market demand changes lead to reduced project demand, CATL will do its best to absorb the capacity reserved for it by Ronbay.
Furthermore, this agreement also carries technical uncertainties. Ronbay highlighted in its response that its current third and fourth-generation LFP cathode material products have not yet achieved large-scale, stable mass production, and the fifth-generation product is still in the development stage. Subsequently, there is a risk that the development and mass production progress of Ronbay's LFP products may fall short of expectations.
Turned a profit in Q4 last year, but may face first annual loss since listing.
Amid the dual challenges of the SSE inquiry and the CSRC investigation, Ronbay's performance is also under pressure.
The 2025 third-quarter report showed that in the first three quarters of last year, Ronbay achieved revenue of 8.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.64%; it reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of a loss of 204 million yuan, turning from a profit to a loss compared to the same period last year.
Specifically, in the third quarter of last year, Ronbay recorded quarterly revenue of 2.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of a loss of 135 million yuan.
Despite the unfavorable situation of declining revenue, Ronbay's period expense ratio for the first three quarters of last year increased against the trend to 8.93%, up 2.22 percentage points year-on-year.
In the first three quarters of 2025, Ronbay's gross profit margin was 7.28%, a decrease of 1.83 percentage points from the same period last year; the net profit margin fell into negative territory at -1.94%, down 3.23 percentage points year-on-year.
As of the end of the third quarter of last year, Ronbay's asset-liability ratio was 65.67%, at a relatively high level in recent years.
Regarding the profitability shown in the third-quarter report, Ronbay stated it was mainly affected by multiple factors including intensified domestic market competition and changes in the international political and economic situation. Sales volume declined in the third quarter, and idle capacity led to increased costs, causing both the third quarter and the first three quarters' overall net profit margins to decrease, with profitability falling short of expectations.
In the fourth quarter of last year, Ronbay's performance improved. According to Ronbay's latest performance forecast, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 30 million yuan in the fourth quarter, turning a quarterly profit.
Ronbay attributed this performance change mainly to sales volume declines in the first three quarters, leading to阶段性 pressure on performance. In the fourth quarter, cathode sales hit a yearly high, and lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) achieved profitability within the quarter. The company turned a profit in the fourth quarter, with operating performance significantly improving and full-year profits recovering.
Soochow Securities pointed out in a research report that Ronbay's sales volume and profitability recovered simultaneously in Q4, with further improvement expected in 2026. It estimated Q4 ternary cathode sales of 25,000–26,000 tons, a sequential increase of over 15%, and estimated full-year 2025 shipments of around 96,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 20%, mainly due to the company's products being in a transition period. Mid-nickel high-voltage products are expected to begin volume production in Q1 2026, and Soochow forecasts 2026 shipments recovering to around 120,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%.
On the profitability side, Q4 capacity utilization improved, and profitability recovered further compared to Q3. Subsequently, as the utilization rate of the South Korean plant increases and mid-nickel and new 8-series products ramp up, ternary materials are expected to gradually recover to reasonable profit levels.
However, for the full year, Ronbay still expects to be in a loss-making state. The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for last year ranging from -190 million to -150 million yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring items ranging from -220 million to -180 million yuan.
Analysis reveals that if the performance forecast is accurate, 2025 could become the first year since Ronbay's listing to experience a full-year net loss.
Following its involvement in this controversy, what development path will Ronbay take next? This will be subject to ongoing monitoring.
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