Crude oil extended its decline for a fourth consecutive session, with West Texas Intermediate dipping below $94 a barrel during European trading hours on Monday, marking a nearly 8% drop from last week's highs.
The latest downturn comes as data showed a sharp rebound in Saudi crude exports for September, which has eased supply concerns even as Middle East tensions persist. A Saturday report from JPMorgan indicated that Saudi oil outflows have remained "exceptionally strong" despite damage to the East-West pipeline, helping to alleviate worries about potential supply disruptions.
Adding to the positive sentiment, US Central Command chief General Brad Cooper confirmed on Sunday that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have reached a six-month high over the past two weeks, thanks to US Navy escort operations and the clearing of sea mines in the waterway. Meanwhile, President Trump expressed willingness to meet with Iran's president, who is expected to attend the UN General Assembly in New York this week, and Iranian officials have also outlined preconditions for resuming negotiations.
The geopolitical picture remains far from settled, preventing a steeper slide from the $100 range. Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, launched missile and drone attacks targeting Riyadh, while both Washington and Tehran have exchanged harsh rhetoric amid a conflict now in its seventh month of deadlock.
Analyst Christopher Wong of OCBC Bank noted that although Saudi authorities reported intercepting attacks on Yanbu and other sites with no new damage to oil infrastructure, the weekend's renewed assaults could still provide fresh support for prices. The bank emphasized that the damaged East-West pipeline and disrupted loading operations at the Yanbu terminal serve as reminders that supply disruption risks remain real. Wong wrote in a research note that unless Saudi crude outflows return to normal and attacks on energy facilities subside, downside potential for oil prices is likely limited.
Despite these concerns, Saudi crude exports have recovered to roughly 4 million barrels per day in September, following a plunge to 2.4 million barrels per day in August—the lowest level since 2013. Shipping data shows only 12 bulk cargo vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, compared with 35 the previous week. JPMorgan analysts also pointed to satellite data indicating Saudi crude shipments through the strait averaged 2.9 million barrels per day over the past six days, up from just 700,000 barrels per day in August.
Market participants are not pricing in a formal agreement between the two nations; instead, the key focus remains on preventing further escalation of the conflict.
Technically, prices faced resistance above $106 after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern and have since pulled back, now testing support at $95—the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the $55-to-$120 rally. Oil remains above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, indicating that while upward momentum has clearly weakened, the longer-term trend still leans bullish.
For bears to shift the outlook definitively lower, prices would need to break below the $95 support zone (converging with the 38.2% Fibonacci level and July high), opening the path toward $88—the 50% retracement and the 50-day moving average. A breach of that level would expose the 200-day average near $82.
Should the $95 support hold, bulls would first aim to reclaim the psychological $100 level before testing the $105 resistance area, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and September's high. A decisive move above $105 would establish a higher high, potentially paving the way toward $110.
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