According to Woofun AI, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a staggering $1.7 billion in combined inflows over September 21 and 22, only for capital flows to abruptly stall. This sharp reversal from frenzy to silence has left the market with huge uncertainty about the sustainability of institutional demand going forward, especially as Bitcoin's price climbed back above $83,000 overnight, making whether ETF investors will follow with buying a key point of observation.
The trajectory of fund flows clearly reveals this swing. Data tracker SoSoValue recorded that funds attracted $999 million on September 21, then another $714.8 million the next day, bringing cumulative net inflows to $56.87 billion. However, this strong momentum came to a halt on September 30, when a net outflow of $148.7 million occurred. Although brief rebounds of $102.7 million and $189.8 million were recorded on October 1 and 2 respectively, demand weakened significantly over the following 13 trading days. Among them, the largest outflow occurred from October 7 to 8, totaling $731.2 million. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, net inflows during these 13 trading days amounted to only $232 million, far below the earlier peak period.
This contraction in capital flows was directly reflected in asset size, with total net assets of the funds falling from $110.77 billion on October 5 to $105.84 billion on October 9, during which net outflows totaled $591 million, with price declines believed to be the main cause of the shrinkage in net assets.
In terms of institutional holdings, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT (IBIT.US) demonstrated absolute dominance. Of the total net assets of $105.84 billion, IBIT alone accounted for $66.3 billion, or about 63%. By contrast, Grayscale's GBTC (GBTC.US) has seen cumulative net outflows reach $27.94 billion, continuing to face redemption pressure. Recent market performance further diverged, with only $21.13 million in total inflows on Friday, of which IBIT absorbed $22.38 million, while Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC.US) posted a net outflow of $3.58 million. Of the 12 related funds, 9 had zero fund flows that day.
Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs overall showed a net outflow of $681 million, ending the previous three consecutive weeks of net inflows; during the same period, spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded a net outflow of $542 million from October 5 to 9. Trading activity was also sluggish, with total daily trading value on Friday at just $1.44 billion, a new low for 13 trading days and far below the peak of $3.18 billion on September 8. Current market sentiment remains in a cautious range, with the Fear and Greed Index monitored by CoinGecko at 39, indicating widespread pessimism among investors.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold 6.38% of Bitcoin's total market value, and their fund flows are a core indicator of institutional buying willingness. Without sustained support from ETF capital, Bitcoin's price rebound will be difficult to maintain. Earlier this month, data released by Glassnode pointed out that the price pullback was mainly attributed to lower trading volumes. Data set to be released on Monday will become a key signal revealing whether institutions are re-entering, determining whether the market continues to consolidate or starts a new round of gains.
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