During the Asian and European trading sessions on Tuesday, spot gold experienced a slight initial dip before embarking on a sustained upward trajectory. Earlier analysis had noted that gold's failure to decline on negative news suggested a potential rebound was brewing. A shift in US-Iran negotiations overnight, coupled with a significant synchronized recovery in Asian equity markets today, presented a favorable intraday trading opportunity for the precious metal.
Gold is currently trading around $4,072, marking a gain of 1.62%.
US-Iran Stalemate Highlights Limits of Airstrike Strategy
The global oil pricing anchor, the Strait of Hormuz, continues to bear the brunt of the US-Iran geopolitical standoff, with both sides engaged in a protracted cycle of mutual airstrikes and confrontation. Experts observe that the strategy of escalating aerial pressure has reached its effectiveness ceiling, proving inadequate to swiftly compel Iranian concessions.
The deadlock over control of the critical shipping lane is absolute, with a previously agreed temporary ceasefire now completely shattered. Rising US military casualties and a concurrent rebound in US gasoline retail prices are directly translating into inflationary pressure, becoming a significant drag for the Republican party ahead of mid-term elections. Markets persistently question the sustainability of the US conflict management approach.
Even with localized signals of negotiation and de-escalation, the tail risk of a broader regional war remains elevated. Former President Trump publicly stated that Iran would face multiplied retaliation for any further US military casualties. Multiple international think-tank experts on Middle Eastern affairs concur that this escalation stems from a fundamental US miscalculation of Iran's decision-making logic and a failure to learn from past confrontations.
Both nations hope to break the impasse by escalating military action, yet higher conflict intensity only narrows the scope for subsequent diplomatic maneuvering. While the White House repeatedly claims the door to diplomacy remains open, and Secretary of State Rubio has expressed willingness to engage, citing Iran's repeated signals for dialogue, market pricing responds only to tangible actions. Iran's continued use of missiles and drones to harass commercial vessels in the Strait—a channel carrying one-fifth of global seaborne crude—directly transmits supply disruptions to commodity markets.
Anonymous US officials indicate that military strikes against Iran will not cease, even as diplomatic channels are maintained concurrently. However, industry geopolitical observers widely believe the current US administration lacks a clear exit strategy for a stable de-escalation, whether militarily or diplomatically, with its overall response appearing disjointed and lacking long-term coherence. Defense experts reviewing historical conflicts note the inherent limitations of relying solely on airstrikes, pointing out that six weeks of US strikes on over 13,000 targets have yet to force Iranian submission.
Iran's preemptive dispersal and concealment of ballistic missiles and drones means easily targetable assets are largely depleted, making long-term suppression of its long-range strike capabilities extremely difficult. A major deployment of ground forces, meanwhile, faces dual opposition from the US public and Congress, presenting significant policy implementation hurdles and leaving US military strategy in a dilemma.
Complete Trust Breakdown Hinders Diplomatic Reconciliation
On the diplomatic front, the deep-seated trust deficit accumulated over years between the US and Iran poses a core obstacle to ceasefire negotiations. The previous administration did not advance substantive, in-depth talks, instead relying on a core group of advisors with limited cross-border diplomatic experience and outsourcing much of the mediation work to third-party nations like Qatar, Pakistan, and Egypt, leaving the negotiation process without a central driving force.
Mutual suspicion and a complete absence of trust between the parties have exhausted the foundation for bilateral confidence, creating layered obstacles at every step of implementation and making substantive reconciliation exceedingly difficult. Nonetheless, markets have recently detected several marginal de-escalation signals, providing fragile support for cooling tensions.
US senior officials adopted a relatively restrained tone following the attack on US forces in Jordan, refraining from excessive retaliation. Concurrently, Iran proactively released an Iranian-American woman who had long been barred from leaving the country, offering a clear goodwill gesture. Multiple analysts interpret these actions as indicating both sides retain room to de-escalate and extract themselves from the confrontation.
However, tail risks have not been fully eliminated. The Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen has announced a blockade of Saudi maritime shipping. Should this blockade expand and completely sever shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, all minor de-escalation signals would instantly become void, and the already fragile global energy and economic system would face a multi-risk shock.
Critical Shipping Lane Severely Disrupted, Oil Supply Chain Under Pressure
As geopolitical conflict persists, shipping chaos in the Strait of Hormuz has intensified, placing increasing strain on the global energy supply chain. Latest statistics from maritime agency Signal Group show that as of July 15, a combined total of 728 empty and laden tankers were backlogged around the Strait of Hormuz, with significant vessel congestion evident in both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, highlighting severe passage and transportation disruptions.
Following the renewed escalation of US-Iran tensions on July 6, market避险 behavior spiked. The proportion of tankers transiting the strait with transparent ownership information plummeted from 67% during the temporary peace period to 45%, as numerous shipowners disabled their vessels' Automatic Identification Systems to sail anonymously and avoid attack risks, drastically worsening shipping transparency in the strait.
Short-term transit data vividly reflects extreme market避险 sentiment. At the start of the week, transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz contracted sharply, with only four bulk commodity vessels passing on Monday, nearly halving from the previous day's seven. Furthermore, vessel tracking data showed no ships passed through the strait within a 24-hour period.
The vessels that did transit were primarily standard chemical and product tankers, with no VLCCs or LNG carriers crossing, indicating a near standstill for high-value energy transport. Coupled with the new blockade threat in the Red Sea's Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the world's two most crucial maritime energy chokepoints are simultaneously at risk. Fears of a global oil supply disruption continue to simmer, serving as a core fundamental bullish factor supporting elevated oil prices. Institutions warn that any conflict-induced damage to laden tankers could trigger sharp, phased volatility in international crude prices.
Marginal Easing in Geopolitical Risk Fuels Risk-On Rebound in Asian Equities
Against a backdrop where geopolitical risks have not fully receded and energy supply remains under pressure, market sentiment has seen marginal improvement. The previously extreme pessimistic避险 mood is gradually cooling, with global risk appetite steadily recovering, driving a phased rebound in Asian equity markets.
The core bearish factors previously suppressing markets—extreme expectations of a full-scale US-Iran war and a complete shipping lane blockade—have weakened. Consequently,避险 capital flows are receding, beginning to rotate back into risk assets.
Asset Performance Diverges, Oil-Strong/Gold-Weak Dynamic Prevails
While gold has rebounded significantly today, oil prices have not declined markedly. This indicates the core issue suppressing gold—inflationary pressures—has not eased. Gold's rebound appears more driven by improved risk sentiment rather than a fundamental shift. Crude oil prices remain strong, underpinned by a persistent physical supply deficit. Their core supportive logic remains intact: the ongoing reality of vessel backlogs, sharply reduced transits, and stalled high-value energy transport in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with potential blockade risks at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeps uncertainty over global seaborne crude supply elevated. The tight supply-demand balance is difficult to reverse, with geopolitical risk premium continuing to underpin oil prices.
Conversely, gold's traditional避险属性 has not strengthened with the realization of geopolitical risk; instead, it has remained under pressure. The core reason is that elevated oil prices continue to boost global inflation expectations, leading markets to simultaneously raise the probability of monetary policy tightening by major economies. Rising US real yields significantly erode the appeal of the non-yielding asset gold. The current market narrative centers on "improving risk appetite + heightened inflation/rate hike expectations," rather than systemic crisis避险, leaving gold缺乏 sustained upward momentum.
Overall, with the US-Iran conflict showing no immediate signs of spiraling completely out of control in the short term, bullish factors for energy supply remain firm, and market risk appetite continues to recover, the divergent oil-strong/gold-weak dynamic is likely to persist. Subsequent focus will be on transit conditions at the two critical straits and US-Iran interactions. Should geopolitical conditions deteriorate abruptly, causing risk appetite to plummet, gold could potentially restart a避险-fueled rally, while oil prices would experience sharper-than-expected volatility.
From a technical perspective, spot gold has broken above its daily downtrend line on the daily chart but remains within a descending channel. The key observation is whether it can follow through to break above this channel, thereby altering the downtrend. Failure to突破 and breach the channel's upper boundary would suggest a continuation of the prior下跌走势.
At the time of writing, spot gold is trading at $4,072.27 per ounce.
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