The leading space concept stock in the US market, SpaceX, has garnered significant global attention even before its listing. Following its public debut, it has secured the seventh position in the US stock market with a total market capitalization approaching three trillion dollars. If this strong momentum continues, SpaceX has the potential to surpass NVIDIA, which currently holds the top spot with a market cap of $5.02 trillion, in the near future.
Revenue vs. Market Confidence
Despite frequent surges in its stock price and market value, SpaceX's annual revenue figures are not particularly "stunning." Market confidence is primarily fueled by strong optimistic expectations rather than current financial performance. From 2023 to 2025, SpaceX's total revenues were $10.39 billion, $10.42 billion, and $18.67 billion, respectively, all falling short of $20 billion and often accompanied by losses. Even considering the annual growth rate, it hovers around only 33%. For Q1 2026, revenue was $4.694 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of merely 15.42%, a figure that can hardly be described as "hyper-growth."
Understanding High Valuation Through NVIDIA's Example
Given that the revenue performance is less than impressive, where does the market's confidence come from? Is it blind optimism? Certainly not. We can understand SpaceX's high valuation by looking at the example of NVIDIA.
From 2021 to 2023, NVIDIA's annual revenue ranged between $16.68 billion and $26.97 billion, similar to SpaceX's current revenue performance. However, from 2024 to 2026, NVIDIA's performance skyrocketed: it multiplied by 4.43 times in 2024, by 9.78 times in 2025, and its fiscal 2026 revenue surpassed $200 billion. For Q1 of fiscal 2027, revenue reached $81.62 billion, doubling compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year.
NVIDIA's performance illustrates what a "sudden transformation" looks like, and market participants are anticipating a similar performance shift from SpaceX. The first financial report after a company's listing is always closely watched. For SpaceX, this will be its Q2 2026 revenue performance. If it can achieve better-than-expected growth, it could potentially drive SpaceX's stock price and total market capitalization to new highs.
Core Profitability Drivers for SpaceX
The fundamental difference between a performance transformation and a performance bubble lies in the profitability of the underlying business. As SpaceX is a space or aerospace concept stock, its potential profitable businesses include the following areas.
Starlink
In 2025, Starlink contributed 60% of the revenue. As a scaled low-Earth orbit satellite internet service, Starlink currently has no direct competitors. While its business model is replicable, the barriers to entry are extremely high, creating a deep moat. According to public information, as of June 5, 2026, Starlink's user base has exceeded 12 million, covering 160 countries and regions. Stable subscription fees from Starlink form the backbone of SpaceX's cash flow and commercial logic.
Starship
The Starship mission is not only about lunar/Mars migration but also aims to effectively reduce the cost of transporting personnel and materials to space. To date, Starship has been successfully recovered twice, with the most recent successful recovery occurring in January 2025. However, the latest recovery attempt in May 2026 ended in failure. The business model for this segment is still being explored and tested.
xAI
SpaceX plans to leverage the cold temperatures and abundant solar energy in space to provide free cooling and power for xAI. While the implementation of this business is challenging, it holds significant potential and is tied to the currently hot AI concept, effectively boosting SpaceX's overall valuation.
Final Assessment
For technology companies, achieving high or even extremely high valuations despite low current earnings has become somewhat of a norm in the stock market. However, whether such high valuations evolve into a bubble depends on whether the profitability of the core business meets or exceeds expectations. Amid the fervor surrounding SpaceX as its total market cap approaches three trillion dollars, the cash flow and prospects of the aforementioned three business segments require a more sober assessment.
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