Will the Post-Holiday Rally Persist? Analysts Work Through Break, Highlight Key Sectors

Despite the A-share market closure during the 2026 Lunar New Year holiday, activity in the capital markets remained high. Analysts from major securities firms entered an intensive work mode, conducting frequent roadshows and publishing thematic research reports to fill the information gap during the break. From Industrial Securities' strategy team holding a seven-day New Year专题 roadshow series to CITIC Securities focusing on AI large language models in a series of conference calls, and multiple institutions tracking Spring Festival consumption trends, both leading and smaller brokerages actively disseminated market views during the holiday window.

The Hong Kong stock market, which opened for two days during the Year of the Horse, displayed a structural rally. On the first trading day, February 20, AI large language model and robotics sectors surged against the broader market trend, while innovative drug and hydrogen energy concept stocks also performed strongly. The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a pattern of falling then rising on February 20 and 23, achieving a positive start to the Lunar New Year.

Industry participants anticipate that the recent U.S. tariff ruling will benefit non-U.S. market assets. Combined with the historically positive performance of A-shares following the Spring Festival, there are high expectations for the continuation of a post-holiday "rally" in the Year of the Horse.

Securities analysts were highly active throughout the holiday period. This year, holiday roadshows have become standard practice for research institutes across the board. For instance, the holiday roadshow schedule of Zhang Qiyao, Chief Strategist at Industrial Securities, gained significant attention: from the first to the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, he and his team held daily investor calls at 3:00 PM. Their "New Year专题 Series" covered various aspects including sentiment research frameworks for Hong Kong stocks, top ten industry trends for 2026, global valuation comparisons, global industry mappings, and in-depth reports on companies expanding overseas. The aim was to capture investor attention during the A-share market's quiet period.

This was not an isolated case. Many other institutions also packed their holiday schedules with roadshows, such as Western Securities' "New Year's Eve Roadshow" and Kaiyuan Securities' "New Year Greetings Roadshow" on the first day of the year. A key reason many analysts chose to forgo their holidays was the strong performance of Hong Kong-listed large language model companies like Zhipu AI and MiniMax.

On February 20, the first trading day of the Year of the Horse in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both declined. Internet and tech stocks generally fell, with Baidu dropping over 6%, Alibaba down nearly 5%, Xiaomi falling close to 3.6%, NetEase down 4.3%, and Kuaishou declining 2.8%. Semiconductor stocks also weakened, with Hua Hong Semiconductor down nearly 6% and SMIC falling over 3%.

However, the AI large language model sector, both domestically and internationally, saw significant developments. Over the past two weeks, Google Gemini released Gemini 3.1 Pro, while Anthropic's Claude Sonnet and Opus models received updates. Domestically, Alibaba released Qwen3.5-Plus, and ByteDance launched Doubao 2.0. The industry views this as the Sino-U.S. large language model competition deepening into native multimodal capabilities.

Amid this global "hundred-model battle" in AI, the domestic AI large language model sector defied the broader market trend on February 20, with Zhipu AI and MiniMax both seeing their market capitalizations surpass HKD 300 billion. In this context, analysts at top firm CITIC Securities also conducted holiday roadshows. Starting from the third day of the New Year, multiple industry teams at CITIC Securities organized Spring Festival industry conference calls, including a 5-day large language model series from February 19 to 24, focusing on the latest progress of several major domestic models. Incomplete statistics show that many other brokerages, including Guolian Minsheng, Changjiang Securities, Soochow Securities, and Huafu Securities, also held related theme calls recently.

Robotics, which gained prominence during the Spring Festival Gala, was another hotspot in the Hong Kong market at the start of the Year of the Horse. On February 20, Hong Kong-listed robotics concept stocks rose sharply, with Yuejiang surging over 21%, Shoucheng Holdings up nearly 12%, and Sanhua Intelligent Controls and Ubtech rising 5.6% and 4.7% respectively. Analysis from Zheshang Securities' emerging industry team highlighted the impressive overall performance of robots during the Gala, detailing the specific technical strengths demonstrated by companies like Yushu Technology, Yinhe Tongyong, Songyan Dynamics, and Magic Atom. Notably, on the first day of the New Year, relevant analysts at Zheshang Securities worked overtime to publish multiple robotics-related research reports.

Beyond these two hotspots, the innovative drug sector in the Hong Kong market also performed well on February 20. BeiGene rose 4.2%, Akeso gained 3.7%, Innovent Biologics increased 1.85%, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group advanced 2.63%, and Baiji Pharmaceutical jumped 8%. According to PharmaGO data, as of February 15, there have been 39 license-out deals for Chinese innovative drugs this year, with upfront payments totaling approximately $2.953 billion and total deal values exceeding $49 billion. This means that in the first 45 days of the year, the scale of upfront payments for Chinese innovative drug BD transactions has already surpassed any single quarter in 2025, and the total deal value exceeds one-third of the entire 2025 level. Recently, there was more positive news: on February 23, Harbour BioMed entered into an licensing agreement and equity collaboration with Solstice Oncology, granting the latter exclusive development and commercialization rights for HBM4003 outside Greater China. Harbour BioMed will receive an upfront payment exceeding $105 million, plus potential development, regulatory, and commercial milestone payments of up to approximately $1.1 billion, along with tiered royalties based on net sales.

Additionally, on February 20, some hydrogen energy concept stocks in Hong Kong rose against the market trend. By the close, Guofu Hydrogen Energy had surged 17.65% and Refire Energy jumped 15.46%.

Institutions are also actively monitoring Spring Festival consumption trends. Recently, several brokerages, including Guotai Junan, Haitong Securities, China Merchants Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, Caitong Securities, Huayuan Securities, and Guosheng Securities, have held conference calls to track the sales dynamics of baijiu and mass-market consumer goods during the holiday period.

From the perspective of Zheshang Securities' food and beverage team, the 2026 Spring Festival saw a strong pulse in baijiu sales rhythm. They estimate industry-wide sales declined around 10%, meeting pre-holiday expectations. Benefiting from rigid gifting demand and differentiation in mass consumption, high-end baijiu (>800 RMB) saw positive sales growth, hundred-yuan price point baijiu (<300 RMB) is estimated to have achieved double-digit growth, while sub-premium baijiu (300-800 RMB) faced significant pressure, showing a "dumbbell-shaped" demand pattern with strength at both ends and weakness in the middle.

Furthermore, consumption analysts at various research institutes are also focusing on holiday trends in segments like gold and jewelry, hotels, tea beverages, and catering. This Spring Festival saw a domestic "travel boom." Guolian Minsheng Securities recently pointed out in a report that data from the Ministry of Transport showed that the total volume of cross-regional passenger movement before and after the holiday, as well as the single-day peak, have set new historical records. Additionally, in the first four days of the holiday, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025; in the first three days, passenger traffic and turnover in 78 key pedestrian streets monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 4.5% and 4.8% year-on-year respectively, laying a positive foundation for consumption at the start of the year.

The post-holiday rally is expected to extend further. During this year's Spring Festival holiday, global markets generally trended upwards, with South Korean and European stock markets leading the gains. On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the large-scale tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration lacked clear statutory authorization. However, this does not affect tariffs based on industry-specific or other investigations.

The industry believes that the setback for U.S. tariffs directly benefits non-U.S. market assets. On the evening of February 20, Hang Seng Index futures recovered their daytime losses and continued to rise on February 23. Following the ruling, former President Trump stated he would impose a 10% temporary import tariff on global goods for 150 days under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, later raising the proposed rate to 15%. Guosheng Securities' macro team believes that if a new 15% tariff is implemented, the U.S. tariff rate on China would decrease by 8.4 percentage points to 28.6%, potentially leading to a 9.1% rebound in exports to the U.S. and a 0.6% increase in total exports. By sector, computers, defense/military industry, machinery equipment, electronics, and power equipment would see the highest tariff reductions, between 10% and 13%. On February 23, the Hong Kong market recorded its first gain of the Year of the Horse, with the previously declining Hang Seng Tech Index rebounding (cumulatively up 0.33% over February 20 and 23), although the AI large language model and robotics sectors experienced a pullback.

Despite mixed performances in global markets during the holiday, historical data suggests the A-share market is still poised for a positive start in the early part of the Year of the Horse. According to Pacific Securities statistics, based on the average historical cumulative returns since 2010, market sentiment tends to rise before the Spring Festival, particularly in the five trading days prior, when major indices generally close higher, indicating a certain "holay effect." Positive sentiment often extends after the holiday, with gains widening over the subsequent 20 trading days. Represented by the Wind All Share Index, the market has historically averaged a gain of 1.43% in the five trading days before the holiday, which expands to 4.06% in the 20 trading days after, suggesting the Spring Festival window has a positive effect on short-to-medium-term market trends.

Furthermore, overall, the Spring Festival effect in the A-share market manifests as a combination of systemic increases and structural differentiation. Among these, the CSI 2000 and micro-cap stocks tend to see their gains continuously widen from 5 to 20 trading days after the holiday, showing significantly greater elasticity compared to large-cap indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300.